I. price trend
Yellow phosphorus prices fell in October, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 19166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 19000 yuan / ton. Within the month, the price fell by 0.87%.
On October 29, the yellow phosphorus commodity index was 120.25, the same as yesterday, down 25.49% from 161.39 (2019-07-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 33.64% from 89.98, the lowest point on September 5, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
| ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate) |
II. Market analysis
Product: in October, after the yellow phosphorus price rose a little at the beginning of the month, there was a downward trend in the middle of the month. Later, affected by the three phosphorus inspection, the price stopped falling and remained stable. As of the end of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus has not changed much as a whole. The price has declined slightly, but the price is still high. According to the inspection by the central environmental protection group of Yunnan Province, the enterprises in Yunnan Province started to decline, and the market supply was tight. Some enterprises mainly supply early orders, and the quotation for foreign reports was suspended. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 19000 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 18500-19000 yuan / ton. The overall market is short of spot goods, traders are mainly wait-and-see, taking goods more cautiously, market demand is relatively light, and yellow phosphorus quotation is mainly stable.
Industrial chain: the upstream phosphorus ore market continues to be weak this month, and the operation is stable temporarily. As of October 25, the phosphorus ore market in Sichuan Province is generally in good condition. The price of 26% high grade magnesium (magnesium oxide 6) phosphate ore in Mabian, Sichuan Province is around 230 yuan / ton. The market of phosphorus ore in Guizhou Province is in stable operation. The price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou Province is 360-400 yuan / ton. The market of phosphorus ore in Hubei Province is in weak operation. At present, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore is around 390-400 yuan / ton. The trading of downstream phosphoric acid and phosphate enterprises is weak, and the enterprises are cautious to watch the market. In the short term, the market price of phosphoric acid is mainly based on the price structure.
| Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent) |
On October 29, the commodity price index of yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid was 101.95, flat with that of yesterday, 30.84% lower than 147.42 (2019-07-21), the highest point in the cycle, and 30.97% higher than 77.84, the lowest point on August 15, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-01-01 till now)
III. future forecast
According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business cooperation, yellow phosphorus enterprises are limited in driving this month, and the overall market of yellow phosphorus is tight in spot. However, the downstream demand is also insufficient. Most traders are mainly wait-and-see, and they are more cautious in taking goods, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the high price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly consolidated.
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