I. price trend
In the third quarter of 2019, the phosphoric acid market broke the routine, and the ups and downs came as a surprise. According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average price of phosphoric acid on July 1 was 4516.67 yuan / ton, and on September 30 was 5500 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 21.77%%% in the third quarter.
II. Market analysis
| Sodium selenite |
Product: the first round of sharp increase in July was mainly due to environmental inspection factors. The shortage of yellow phosphorus supply led to the increase of market price. The raw material inventory is in a hurry, and the source of goods is hard to find. The high price of the carrier offers. The market of conduction phosphoric acid rose by 30.63% in July, with an average price of about 5900 yuan / ton. Most enterprises do not offer prices temporarily, and some enterprises have downtime plans. In the first half of August, the price of phosphoric acid market remained stable. In the second half of August, major enterprises began to lower their prices successively. As the price of upstream Yellow Phosphorus market fell under pressure, the market focus moved downward. In addition, Yunnan yellow phosphorus plant started construction in succession, the market supply increased, and the price of yellow phosphorus continued to fall. The price of phosphoric acid decreased under pressure, with a fall of 13.14% in August, with an average price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. In September, due to the impact of “three phosphorus treatment” on yellow phosphorus supply, the spot supply is tight, and the price is back to the high level, and the spot market is very tight. In addition, the stock preparation before the National Day holiday, the market price of thermal process phosphoric acid is supported by the favorable raw material end, and the price continues to rise, with an increase of 8.55% in September, and the average price is about 5500 yuan / ton. In the third quarter, due to the unstable raw material yellow phosphorus market, the conduction phosphoric acid market fluctuated. Entering October, the phosphoric acid market is becoming more and more stable, with occasional fluctuations, but the overall stable state is mostly.
Industry chain: in the near future, the phosphorus ore market continues to be weak and stable, and the high-end quotations of mining enterprises in some areas may be slightly reduced. The overall trading atmosphere in the field is weak, and the center of gravity in the field has a downward trend. At present, the new order volume is still small, the enterprise inventory is high, and many mining enterprises still deal with the previous orders, and the overall inventory of mining enterprises is slowly digested. Recently, the market price of yellow phosphorus has increased. According to the inspection by the central environmental protection group of Yunnan Province, the enterprises in Yunnan Province started to decline, and the market supply was tight. Some enterprises mainly supply early orders, and the external quotation price was increased. The phosphate Market is under construction, and some enterprises mainly digest inventory. The phosphate Market is weak in trading, and enterprises are cautious to wait and see the market.
| Bacillus thuringiensis |
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in September 2019, there were 2 rising and 2 falling commodities in the price list of phosphorus chemical industry, and 1 rising and falling commodity. The main commodities that rose were yellow phosphorus (20.29%) and phosphoric acid (8.55%); the main commodities that fell were monoammonium phosphate (- 3.88%) and diammonium phosphate (- 2.42%). This month’s average rise and fall was 4.51%.
III. future forecast
According to the phosphoric acid analyst of Business & Social chemical branch, due to the impact of environmental protection, the raw material end is tight in stock and the cost side is insufficient. The demand of phosphoric acid enterprises is mostly in a state of cautious wait-and-see. The price fluctuates with the raw material end, and the on-site Trading is flat. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid in the future will be dominated.
| Benzalkonium chloride |