According to Paris on October 11, 2019, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently lowered its daily global oil demand growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 by 100,000 to 1.2 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively in its latest monthly oil market report.
The fall in 2019 mainly reflects a technological adjustment, as new data show that increased demand in the United States in 2018 has curbed this year’s growth figures. For 2020, this decline reflects a decline in global gross domestic product (GDP) prospects.
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The IEA says there will be two distinct situations in global oil demand this year. Demand grew by 425,000 barrels a day in the first half of this year, the weakest growth since the last recession. However, in the second half of this year, the IEA expects demand to grow by 1.57 million barrels per day. Recent data support this forecast: demand growth in non-OECD countries was 1 million barrels per day in July and 1.5 million barrels per day in August, respectively. China’s demand growth was steady, with an increase of more than 500,000 barrels per day over the same period of last year. Demand in OECD member countries remains relatively weak, with year-on-year growth recovering in the second half of this year, thanks to a low base in the second half of 2018. Demand is also supported by Brent crude oil prices, which have fallen by more than 30% from the same period last year.
The IEA lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth to 1.2 million barrels a day next year as global GDP growth is expected to decline.
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