Price Trend
The market price of NBR rose sharply in September. According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of NBR at the beginning of the month was 16466 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 17566 yuan/ton. The price of NBR at the end of the month was 6.68% higher than that at the beginning of the month.
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II. Market Trend Analysis
At the beginning of the month, NBR was mainly stable. Although the ex-factory price of NBR increased slightly at the beginning of the month, the downstream demand was light and the purchasing atmosphere was weak. Traders mainly shipped NBR, and the market offer of NBR was basically stable. According to business association monitoring, on September 2, Lanzhou Petrochemical NBR factory price increased 200 yuan/ton, 305E 16400 yuan/ton, N41E 16100 yuan/ton, 3308E 16400 yuan/ton and Shunze NBR 3355 factory price 16 000 yuan/ton.
Since mid-September, on the one hand, due to the impact of soaring crude oil, raw material butadiene has risen sharply, forming a greater pressure on the price of nitrile-butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of raw material Butadiene on September 16 was 10 401 yuan/ton, and on September 29, the price of butadiene was 1 1845 yuan/ton, up 13.66 percent as a whole. On the other hand, the domestic NBR start-up rate was as low as 50% in September, and the manufacturers and social stocks were on the low side. According to business associations, as of mid-September, the output of several major NBR manufacturers in China was only around 6,000 tons, which was lower than before. The reduction of supply supported the price of NBR to a certain extent. In mid-month, the factory price of NBR in Lanzhou Petrochemical Company increased by 600 yuan/ton, 305E by 17,000 yuan/ton, N41E by 16,700 yuan/ton and 3308E by 17,000 yuan/ton.
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Affected by the environmental protection factors of National Day, some terminal factories in North China were shut down one after another, demand was further reduced, purchasing of high-priced nitrile-butadiene in downstream areas was reduced, the rising trend of nitrile-butadiene rubber price was stopped, and the factory price of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was slightly reduced by 200 yuan/ton at the end of the month. According to the monitoring of business associations, the factory price of nitrile-butadiene rubber in Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was lowered by 200 yuan/ton on September 29, and the 305E was reported to 41E is 16500 yuan/ton and 3308E is 16800 yuan/ton.
3. Prospects for the Future Market
Business analysts believe that due to the sharp rise in butadiene, the price of NBR has risen sharply. There are still two points to be seen in the future market: first, whether the high price of butadiene can be sustained, and if it can be sustained, it will continue to support NBR; second, whether the downstream demand will increase after the National Day, and if the demand is still weak at that time, NBR will still fall.
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