Price Trend
Lead market (09.16-09.20) fell this week. The average price in domestic market was 17362.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 16862.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The weekly decline was 2.88%.
On September 20, the lead commodity index was 102.62, up 0.26 points from yesterday, down 23.42% from the cyclical peak of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 37.51% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).
II. Market Trend Analysis
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Domestic market: This week spot lead market and Shanghai lead trend all the way down, the mainstream trading range is 16775-17400 yuan/ton, spot cumulative weekly decline of about 500 yuan/ton. The market is willing to ship goods. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic lead brands will be 20 yuan per ton of water discount to 20 yuan per ton for 1910 contract. The downstream mentality of prudent on-demand purchasing, trading is still acceptable, mostly long single-based, light bulk single transactions, market brand lead is Jinsha, South, Wanyang, Mulu, etc.
Domestic events:
ILZSG: The global lead shortage in July was 4,200 tons: London, September 18, 2008. According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG), the global lead supply gap narrowed to 4,200 tons in July and 13,100 tons in June. In the first seven months of 2019, the global lead supply gap expanded to 47,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 35,000 tons in the same period last year.
WBMS: The global lead supply gap in January-July 2019 is 177,000 tons: London, September 18, 2019. According to data released Wednesday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global lead supply gap in January-July 2019 is 177,000 tons and that in 2018 is 265,000 tons. By the end of July, the total stock was 27,000 tons lower than that at the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to July 2019, global refined lead production (primary and recycled) was 7.329 million tons, an increase of 11.70% over the same period last year. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 3.577 million tons, an increase of 782,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 48% of the global total. Apparent demand in the United States fell by 11,000 tons from January to July 2019. In July 2019, the output of refined lead was 105.27 million tons and the consumption was 105.74 million tons.
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Non-ferrous industries: This week, the US dollar index shook in the high range of 98.2-98.6, the British break-off event further fermented the pound plunge, the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a partial hawk, the US dollar high was stable, triggering market fears about the weakening of the global economy; Saudi Arabia said after the attack that it would soon resume production, crude oil rushed back to high. The basic metals fall accordingly.
3. Prospects for the Future Market
Next week is the last trading week before the National Day holiday, and there are long orders delivered in the first half of the week. With the approaching week, the pre-holiday hedging mood will gradually increase. Whether spot or futures, hedging and bagging will be the main safety, and the market will be characterized by rising first and then falling.
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