Price Trend
In September, the domestic liquefied natural gas market improved due to the northwest gas limit, and with the end of the 10-day gas limit, the price of LNG resumed its decline. The average price of domestic LNG market on the 10th day was 3030 yuan/ton, and the average price on the 19th day was 2900 yuan/ton. Within ten days, the price fell by 4.29%, 35.56% compared with the same period last year.
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II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: According to the data of business associations, as of September 19, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 2950 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 2850 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Zizhou LNG Plant of Shaanxi Luyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3000 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang Guanghui LNG Development Co., Ltd. is 2300 yuan/ton, that of Qinshui New Olympics LNG is 3150 yuan/ton, that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan LNG Co., Ltd. is 2900 yuan/ton, and that of Qinghua Energy Group of Xinjiang is 2500 yuan/ton. LNG Company Limited is priced at 2900 yuan per ton. Local liquid prices have fallen to low levels.
Market analysis: In recent ten days, the domestic LNG market has continuously lowered prices. The northwest gas limit ended on September 10, and the market has resumed normal supply. Major manufacturers are preparing for the pre-festival warehouse and lowering the liquid price one after another. Under the guidance of downstream demand, in order to alleviate the pressure of shipment, liquid factories have sought a favorable price reduction. Individual factories have made great efforts to reduce the price, with partial inverted shipment phenomenon. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, transportation was blocked, and shipments from liquid factories in some areas were not smooth and prices were continuously lowered. After the holidays, the restrictions on high-speed and dangerous chemicals transportation were lifted, the demand situation was still unclear, the terminal demand was not improved, the upstream bid was difficult, and the liquid factory continued to reduce the price in order to maintain normal shipment. At present, the downstream demand is flat, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the supply exceeds demand situation is still strong, and with the rising import LNG prices, it will bring certain benefits to domestic LNG. In addition, the upstream factories are forced to reduce production costs, and the wait-and-see mentality is growing. LNG stops falling and returns to stability, and the trend is still weak.
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Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 36 weeks of 2019 (9.9-9.13), there were 6 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rising annually. The top three commodities were gasoline (1.24%), methanol (1.06%) and diesel (0.98%). There are seven kinds of commodities that have declined annually. The first three products are dimethyl ether (-2.95%), liquefied natural gas (-2.30%) and WTI crude oil (-1.36%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.29%.
3. Future Market Forecast
Liquefied Natural Gas analysts of business associations believe that the current market demand is inadequate. With the end of the Northwest Gas Limitation, the situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the LNG market returns to normal. In addition, near the National Day, demand in some areas is more reduced, or it may affect liquid prices. LNG prices are expected to be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.
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