I. Rising and falling lists
According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 36 weeks of 2019 (9.9-9.13), there were 8 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices. The top three commodities were PS (4.55%), PA6 (2.90%) and EPS (2.23%). There are five kinds of products that have declined annually. The first three products are PA66 (-1.05%), PET (-0.70%) and styrene-butadiene rubber (-0.47%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.64%. Among them, the natural rubber ring decreased by 0.34% compared with the previous year, and increased by 2.70%.
II. Commodity Index
The natural rubber commodity index on September 15 was 39.19, down 1.78 points from yesterday, down 60.81% from the 100.00 point in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 39.22% from the 28.15 point on November 25, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)
3. Market Trend
In the first half of 2019, the market of natural rubber was ups and downs, while in the second half, it was still quite distressing. The first quarter experienced a sharp increase of nearly 10% in February, and fell back to the starting line in March. The second quarter rebounded 4% in April and then started the decline mode until the last trading day when the Customs announced the policy of “mixing rubber classification” began to rise. In May, the price of rubber continued to rise. The impact of classification and inspection of mixed rubber, high temperature and drought and insect pests was tremendous. Especially, the shortage of new rubber supply caused worries about future supply. The price of Tianguo had risen by 10%, followed by a drop in sentiment and a three-point decline in the price shock of rubber. June continued to be a weak shock, a monthly decline of 5.7%, known as “business is very difficult to do”. In the first half of July, Tianjiao shocks dropped until the 16th RU1909 contract closed at 10460 points, down 150 points on the same day, the lowest point of the month, with a decline of 8.15% on the 1st to 16th days. After that, Tianjiao shocks rebounded in the second half of the month and then decreased slightly, with the main contract closing at 10670 points on the last trading day of the month. On August 12th, Tianjiao 20 rubber was listed on the market in the last period of energy. Full latex futures continued to be weak. The highest price was 10,624 yuan/ton on the 31st day, the lowest was 10,260 yuan/ton on the 2nd day, and the maximum monthly amplitude was 3.55%. From the morphological point of view, the first half of August showed an incomplete trend of “W” and the second half showed a trend of “V”, which was generally small in the current month. Amplitude shocks, weak market. Enter September, the first week of the market all the way up, Shanghai glue (whole milk) weekend slightly callback, the second week of the market shock downward; 20 glue in the first week of the highest price 10450, the largest increase of 3.91%, near the weekend callback, the second week of vulnerable shock, the highest weekly price 10315, the lowest 10115, the closing week 10175; According to business club (100ppi.com) monitoring Data show that in 17 years, the mainstream quotation of SCRWF in East China was 10 624 yuan/ton on the 1st day and 1 1040 yuan/ton on the 15th day, with an increase of 3.92% in the first half of the month.
IV. Influencing factors
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(1) Analysis of industrial factors
Rubber production: In September, the main production area of natural rubber is still a high-yield period, and the output growth is obvious. Rainfall weather in the main production area in China affects rubber cutting to a certain extent. Statistics show that in general, rubber production in Banna will be reduced by 15%-20% in 2019. Many private factories are short of raw materials to purchase. The low price of raw materials also hampers the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to cut rubber. In some cases, the phenomenon of less cutting and discarding cutting is observed.
Import and Export: China: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 538,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2019, down 2.71% annually and 11.8% year-on-year. From January to August, the total import volume was 4.166 million tons, down 7.7% from 4.514 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of the amount, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber in August amounted to 837 million US dollars, down 13.2% from the same period last year.
Inventory: Domestic Tianguo stock is still at a high level. As of September 13, 2019, natural rubber stock in the previous period was 471956 (5127) tons and warehouse receipt was 427400 (5210) tons.
Demand: Statistical data show that the cumulative sales of heavy trucks in China from January to July totaled 732,300 vehicles, down 2% from the same period last year. It is expected that the cumulative sales of heavy trucks in the second half of the year will still fall by 5% to 10%. Passenger car sales in August were 1.65 million, down 7.7% from a year earlier, while automobile sales were 1.96 million, down 6.9% from a year earlier. In July, China exported 46.51 million new pneumatic rubber tires, an increase of 6.8% over the same period last year, and the export amount reached 9.589 billion yuan, an increase of 5% over the same period last year. In terms of export situation, from January to July, China’s tire export volume was 295 million, an increase of 5.6% over the same period last year, and the export amount was 59.923 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7% over the same period last year. The Sino-US trade war is still grim, and China’s tire exports are still affected.
Downstream: China’s tire production continued to decline in the first half of 2019. The total tire output in January-June was 403.745 million, down 1% from the same period last year. In September, the start-up of tire enterprises in China is still affected, and will improve after the 11th National Day. As of September 13, 2019, the total tire start-up load of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 71.81%, which was 0.15 percentage points higher than the previous period and 1.76 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Semi-steel tire start-up load of domestic tire enterprises was 67.11%, which was 0.20 percentage points higher than the previous period and 3.85 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Start-up high for holidays to reduce the rate of start-up. Tire factories have normal inventory and distributors have high inventory.
(2) Analysis of macro-factors
1. Relaxation of automobile consumption: In mid-August, the State Council issued “Opinions on Speeding up the Development of Circulation and Promoting Commercial Consumption”, proposing 20 policy measures such as gradually relaxing or abolishing automobile purchase restrictions and supporting green intelligent commodities to replace old ones with new ones; in June, the State Development and Reform Commission and other three departments issued documents to prohibit the introduction of new automobiles everywhere. Vehicle purchase restrictions. Experts believe that the trend of “relaxation” can be seen from the document, together with the issue of “20 consumption items”, to promote China’s automobile consumption has become an overall tone, and the prospects for automobile production and marketing are optimistic.
2. Renminbi depreciation leads to cost increase: At present, the formula for calculating the import cost of natural latex is as follows: (US dollar shipping price * exchange rate + tariff)* (1 + 13%) + customs declaration and other miscellaneous charges, value-added tax 13%. Renminbi depreciation increases the import cost, the exchange rate depreciates from 6.9 to 7.2, and the import cost is about 400 yuan/ton. The superimposed cost of natural quotation increased and the price increased.
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3. Statistical data declined: PMI of manufacturing industry declined in August, production, orders, inventory and price index were weak, and there was downward pressure on economic operation. The renewed escalation of Sino-US trade frictions has impacted the development expectations of manufacturing industry. At the same time, the high temperature and rainy weather have a certain impact on the prosperity of manufacturing industry, the most important of which is the insufficient domestic demand. Facing the pressure of weakening demand, the analysis holds that on the one hand, we should expand effective domestic demand and further strengthen the stability of infrastructure construction; on the other hand, we should promote tax reduction and fee reduction, focus on reducing the operating costs of manufacturing enterprises, promote the expected improvement of production and investment of enterprises, and boost the confidence of manufacturing industry.
4. The central bank lowered its benchmark to promote liquidity: On the afternoon of September 6, the central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve ratio of financial institutions on September 16. The release of funds could reach about 900 billion yuan. The commodity sector, especially commodities dominated by industrial attributes, may be vulnerable to such measures as benchmarking.
V. Related Products
Business association data showed that the commodity index of cis-butadiene rubber on September 15 was 34.02, which was unchanged from yesterday, down 66.78% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2011-09-25), up 43.30% from the low of 23.74 points on February 04, 2015, and 34.36 on September 15, which was unchanged from yesterday and 103.60 points from the peak of the cycle. (2011-09-08) decreased by 66.83%, up 20.94% from the lowest point of 28.41 on January 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)
VI. Future Market Forecast
According to the natural rubber analyst of the business association, September is the traditional consumption peak season. Under the combined effect of macroeconomic, industry development, downstream demand, import and export and other factors, natural rubber once continuously increased for four days. Under the condition of high inventory, the price does not have the conditions to continue to rise. Normal callback. The analysis shows that the price will continue to oscillate due to the recent comprehensive factors. Construction may be affected before the Eleventh holiday. However, considering the seasonal consumption characteristics in autumn and the rising downstream starting rate after the holiday, the peak consumption season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” deserves our attention.
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