According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, nickel prices soared again on July 18, with spot prices rising by 4.48% in a single day, breaking through the 110,000 mark, rising by 4.77% year on year and 28.31% over the 89,508.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The main nickel market in Shanghai opened at 11830 yuan, then the price rose sharply, touching the price limit in the morning, and then unlocked, closing at 16870 yuan, up 5.24%. LME closed its March nickel submission at $14,840, up 3.23%.
| Melamine |
Nickel is still at a historic low
The nickel commodity index on July 18 was 69.55, up 2.98 points from yesterday, down 30.45% from the peak of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), up 78.10% from the lowest point of 39.05 on November 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)
After four months of falling nickel, the market finally won. Nickel has been soaring since July, and today it is soaring nearly five points. One of the reasons is that the supply side disturbances occur frequently, the previous edition has specifically analyzed the link: business associations: nickel supply shortage news continued to ferment stainless steel slightly followed the rise. On the other hand, the steelmakers deliberately make high nickel prices.
| EDTA |
Let’s first look at the price rises and falls of stainless steel and nickel in the industrial chain.
According to the rising trend chart of the stainless steel industry chain of business associations, from the beginning of the year to the end of the 18th, nickel prices rose by 28.31%, stainless steel only slightly increased by 1.56%. It shows that the price elasticity of stainless steel is less than that of nickel. In the historical market, when nickel price fluctuates greatly, the price of stainless steel can still operate relatively independently. According to this logic, if the price of stainless steel remains unchanged after nickel price rises, the profit of steel mills will shrink or even suffer losses. In fact, 17 years ago, when the price of nickel soared frequently, the price of stainless steel was relatively calm. You rose little, I did not move. You rose little, I rose little, previously thought that the poor demand downstream caused. But until Tuesday (16), large stainless steel factories entered the market to purchase nickel sheets. On the 17th, stainless steel rose by 3.06% for two consecutive days, as shown in the figure below.
According to the nickel price monitoring of business associations, the market of stainless steel has been depressed this year. By June, several large steel mills began to make joint bids. The method is to increase the price of stainless steel while increasing the nickel price. This gives a plain reason for the price increase of stainless steel (the rising price of raw materials leads to higher costs), which is due to the fact that large steel mills have already made joint bids. As the cost is relatively locked up after the stock is prepared in advance, the steel mill can achieve double revenue at the futures and spot ends in the market where the prices of stainless steel and nickel rise resonantly. In addition, although nickel prices have been rising for many days to reach the highest level in the year, there are still a large number of steel mills purchasing nickel plate spot.
| Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent) |
Future forecast: In the context of no significant change in supply and demand, the recent sustained rise in nickel prices is closely related to the positive measures taken by large stainless steel plants and frequent interference at the supply side. But in fact, the earthquake in Indonesia, restrictions on mineral exports and environmental protection factors in the Philippines have not significantly affected the spot market. However, this wave of increase has been coordinated by stainless steel factories, large stainless steel factories into the market to purchase steel factories, resulting in a sustained rise in nickel prices. However, after the purchasing boom in large stainless steel plants, prices may gradually stabilize. Recent nickel market is short-term, it is difficult to sustain the sustained rise in nickel prices, the future market is concerned about whether there are new disturbances at the supply side.