The supply pressure of polyolefin is higher in the second half of the year

In the second half of the year, the pressure at the supply end of polyolefin is high, and the trend is rising first and then decreasing.

In the first half of the year, three sets of devices were put into operation: Satellite Petrochemical, Jiutai Energy and Hengli Petrochemical Phase I. Satellite Petrochemical 150,000 tons of powder plant has been running normally during the Spring Festival; Jiutai Energy successfully commissioned on March 20, PE plant produced 7042, PP plant produced L5E89, but later stopped for overhaul, then started at 80% load in May, and increased to 90% after June; Hengli Petrochemical Phase I 450,000 tons of PP was commissioned in April, which was officially low in May. The load is put into operation and gradually increased in June. In the second half of the year, judging from the third quarter, it will probably be put into production in Guangdong Juzhengyuan and Zhongan United. At the end of June, 600,000 tons of PP from Juzhengyuan, Guangdong Province, was commissioned for trial production of PPH-T03. The polymerization unit of the manufacturer was reverse-start, and PDH was commissioned later. After production in July, it is expected that the production of drawing and injection moulding will be dominated by fibers. Zhongan Coal previously said it would be delayed to September, and now there is news that it will drive in July. In addition, Qinghai Damei and Baofeng Phase II may be put into production in the third quarter. Damei, Qinghai Province, which was supposed to start production in the second quarter, will realize China’s diplomatic relations on December 26, 2018, and is scheduled to start production in September 2019. From the fourth quarter, Zhejiang Petrochemical 750,000 tons of PE and 900,000 tons of PP, Ningbo Fuji Phase 2 800,000 tons of PP, Hengli Petrochemical Phase 2 400,000 tons of PE and 400,000 tons of PP have a certain probability of putting into operation, but considering the common delays in the production of chemical plants, the new capacity in the fourth quarter is much smaller than the expectations of the industry.

As for the external market, due to the imperfection of international information statistics, the uncertainty of the external production is higher. At present, in the second half of the year, it is expected that Iranian APC, American Basel, Ma You, Xibul and other devices will be put into operation. The external market is expected to increase the production capacity of PE and PP by 5.26 million tons and 2.88 million tons in 2019, significantly higher than last year’s 3.57 million tons and last year’s. 1.46 million tons.

Imports or short-term or medium-term contraction, but later or will be re-pressurized. From the point of view of import volume, the import data of May have been published. According to the published data, the import of PE1-May reached 6882,000 tons, an increase of 18.4% over the same period of last year; the import of PP1-May reached 2026,000 tons, an increase of 6.1% over the same period of last year. After the Spring Festival, especially since the end of February, the arrival time of ships has gradually increased, the imports in March are still more, and the overall pressure of the port is still under pressure. After that, the import pressure in the second quarter is still obvious. However, due to the significant decline in import profits from the end of April to the middle and late May, combined with the import orders at that time, the imports in June and July will be much larger than that in June and July. The weakening, and the current external supply of goods due to low prices, began to bid, but also from the side to a certain extent confirmed this point of view.