Price Trend
In June 2019, the domestic methanol market was mainly volatile. According to the price monitoring of business associations, the average domestic methanol price was 2334 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 2180 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price dropped by 6.60% in the month, 19.93% compared with the same period last year.
| Melamine |
II. Market Analysis
Products: The domestic methanol market trend in June is mainly shocky. With the end of spring maintenance, local methanol supply increased, while import arrivals maintained a high level. Traditionally, demand was weak, and the second half of the methanol spot market was deadlocked, mostly weakened. The new 600,000-ton methanol-to-olefin plant in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, was put into operation this month. At present, the methanol purchasing volume is stable with full-load production. The olefin plants expected to be put into operation from July to August are Shandong Luxi, Nanjing Chengzhi and Zhongan United.
| EDTA |
Industry chain: formaldehyde: formaldehyde Market as a whole fell this month. The upstream methanol market is lower as a whole, and the cost is difficult to support. However, the downstream market is affected by the busy farming in the north, the flood season in the South and the environmental protection policies in some areas. The overall start of the market is not high, and the demand is difficult to support the formaldehyde market. As a result, the formaldehyde market is running lower this month, the profits of enterprises are reduced, and the market as a whole. Volume declined. Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether market overall shocks slightly fell this month, price fluctuations in the range of 20-100 yuan/ton. During the month, the main enterprises in Henan such as Yima and Xinlianxin all maintained half-load operation. The total daily output in this area decreased by 40% to about 3300 tons (with a full output of 5500 tons). Later in the month, the Tangshan Xuyang and Shanxi orchid dimethyl ether plants were shut down again for overhaul. The supply in the northern market was further narrowed, and the manufacturers supported by low supply were obviously weak. In order to maintain the daily balance of production and marketing, only a small price adjustment was made under the current situation, while the mainstream transactions in the northern market fluctuated between 3000-3200 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: This month, the domestic acetic acid market rose and fell, with frequent market shocks. At the beginning of this month, the main acetic acid plant in East China stopped unexpectedly and for a long time, which led to the shortage of supply in East China, passively transferring supplies from North China, and gave the enterprises the initiative to report an increase, with the market rising by 400 yuan/ton. In the mid-month period, the mainstream production enterprises in East China resumed normal operation, and downstream demand continued to weaken. The conflict with high-price acetic acid was obvious, the market supply was not digested smoothly and the domestic supply gradually accumulated. After that, the enterprises in Central China and Shandong pulled back their offers one after another, driving down the market transaction price by about 250 yuan/ton. Towards the end of the month, the short-term failure of the main production enterprises in East China has given the market part a bullish mentality, but the device has been restored in time, breaking the market bullish enthusiasm, and returning to stability after the acetic acid market rose slightly.
| Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent) |
Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in June 2019, there were four kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, one of which rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were WTI crude oil (5.02%), MTBE (2.46%) and coking coal (0.82%). There are 12 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products with the first three declines are petroleum coke (-8.44%), liquefied natural gas (-7.64%) and naphtha (-7.09%). This month’s average rise and fall was -3.07%.
3. Future Market Forecast
Business Society Viewpoint: On the positive side, due to the impact of the Iranian collision, the cost of shipping from Iran to China has increased, and it is expected that Iranian cargo will remain tense in July; there are still some scheduled overhauls of methanol plants in July, including Shenmu, Yankuangyulin, Xianyang Chemicals and other enterprises; and the MTO plant in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, has been upgraded to 90% by the end of September. The second MTO of Shandong Luxi and Nanjing Chengzhi is expected to start production from July to August. On the negative side, in traditional downstream products, the market of dimethyl ether and acetic acid continued to decline, and the profit of enterprises was not good; the import volume in June was estimated to be more than 800,000 tons; however, the import volume in July will decline due to the increase of international equipment maintenance and the restriction of Iranian transportation; the safety and environmental protection inspection will continue to be rigorous, and local market terminal enterprises. Production reduction or shutdown are affected, which is not conducive to methanol consumption. Methanol analysts in business associations predict that the main logic of the recent spot market is that the supply of methanol exceeds demand, and the short-term market of methanol is mainly declining; if Nanjing Chengzhi goes into operation smoothly, methanol is expected to stop falling in late July.