With the end of summer fertilizer, domestic fertilizer market has entered the off-season, and there is still a period of time before autumn fertilizer, and the turnover of domestic fertilizer market has slowed down. Industry insiders expect that after July, manufacturers will introduce preferential policies, autumn fertilizer will be opened, and compound fertilizer manufacturers will also start autumn fertilizer production.
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Analysis I
Urea market is temporarily stable
According to the reporter, the harvest of wheat in the north is over, the planting of maize is near the end, the fertilizer of maize is over, the new demand has not yet formed, and the fertilizer market is in the period of consolidation. In view of the special stage of agricultural production, the market has limited pull on the fertilizer market, and the price of urea products is stable. At present, the mainstream factory quotation of small particles in North China is 1910-1920 yuan/ton, and that of large particles is 1910 yuan/ton, which is expected to be difficult to adjust dramatically in the short term.
According to Han Haixia, general manager of Henan Xinye Haifeng Agricultural Science and Technology Co., Ltd., the fertilizer market has ended in summer. Next, the northern crop areas will enter the off-season of fertilizer use. Only vegetables, melons and fruits and other crops have a small demand for fertilizer. She said: “At present, the main concern is the autumn fertilizer market, manufacturers have held orders, manufacturers mostly in the form of interest-bearing to let distributors pay. The manufacturers are worried about the pressure of centralized shipment in September, and have started to move goods from sporadic to sporadic. According to past practice, in July, with the autumn fertilizer being put into production, the price of raw materials such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium may be increased, but the increase should not be too large.
According to Huang Hua, the business manager of Sirte Fertilizer Industry in Anhui Province, the market as a whole is in a wait-and-see stage, and the purchasing volume of urea, diammonium and compound fertilizer by distributors is extremely limited.
It is also understood that India’s MMTC company issued urea quota tender information, opening on July 1 and closing on July 8. This news has a certain boost to the confidence of domestic urea market, the market mentality has improved, Urea Export is expected to ease the inventory pressure of enterprises.
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Analysis II
Phosphate Fertilizer Market Trading Light
At present, the phosphate fertilizer market is in a gap period of demand. At present, there is no demand for Northern agriculture. Some distributors begin to prepare fertilizer in autumn. However, most distributors hold a wait-and-see attitude, with few new orders and few transactions. Some manufacturers have lowered their prices, but the market is still dominated by acquisition-and-purchase mode. On the export market, international traders are not active in purchasing, and the FOB price of domestic diammonium exports continues to fall. Ammonium market is also weak, 55% of ammonium powder factory quotation in 2000-2200 yuan/ton, general goods, enterprises digest pre-order, it is expected that the short-term price without demand support is insufficient upward momentum.
According to the data of 23 provinces monitored, the wholesale price of domestic diammonium phosphate remained stable on the whole. Among them, the price of Tianjin shows a rising trend, rising by 100 yuan/ton; the prices of Henan, Hubei and Xinjiang show a declining trend, falling by 15-37.5 yuan/ton, Henan Province has a large decline, while the prices of other provinces remain stable. The retail price of domestic diammonium phosphate remained stable. Among them, prices in Henan, Hubei, Sichuan and Xinjiang all showed a downward trend, falling by 23.9-83.4 yuan/ton, while prices in other provinces remained stable.
It is also reported that in the export market, although there are outflows of procurement tenders in the Indian Peninsula and Bangladesh markets, the buyer’s intention to bid is weak due to the downward price of the international market, the buyer and seller are still in a stalemate, and the domestic export price of diammonium is US$340/ton FOB.
As the domestic and international markets are in a downward trend, it is expected that there will be no turning point in the phosphate fertilizer market in the short term.
Analysis III
Compound fertilizer is valuable but not marketable
This summer fertilizer performance is still acceptable, grass-roots sales are relatively smooth. According to Han Haixia, 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer and 45% chlorine-based compound fertilizer are sold at 2500 yuan/ton and 2100 yuan/ton in Henan market. She said that the local planting structure changed greatly this year. Many corn growers changed to grow peanuts, soybeans, sorghum and other crops, resulting in a sharp reduction in the area of corn planted this summer. Overall, however, the fertilizer market sales this summer were basically flat compared with previous years.
In addition, she said that in recent years, farmers have also changed their fertilizer use structure. Among them, the sales of special fertilizer are increasing year by year. Firstly, cash crop growers use special fertilizer to cover a large area. At the same time, some field crop growers have gradually attached importance to soil structure adjustment and began to apply special fertilizer.
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With the end of the fertilizer season in summer, the market demand for compound fertilizers is weak, and the price of compound fertilizers is in a state of no market. It is understood that the current 45% potassium sulfate compound fertilizer factory price is as low as 2180 yuan/ton. In view of the weak market demand, the compound fertilizer manufacturer began to take turns to repair the production line, and the production start-up rate was low.
Huang Hua said: “Although dealers are watching, in fact, the enterprise’s plan is in an orderly way. Starting from mid-June, manufacturers began to organize various meetings for the autumn fertilizer market, but at present only some distributors pay money, and delivery has not yet been carried out.
Huang Hua believes that according to past years’experience, the autumn fertilizer reserve will start in mid-July, but this year there will be less rain in Shandong, and it is difficult for some areas to plant fertilizer at the same time. It is expected that there will be a wave of demand for fertilizer in the later period. He said: “The specific future market depends on the policies of the manufacturers. Generally speaking, the price is relatively moderate, not too high or too low. The specific policies of the manufacturer on compound fertilizer will be announced in July, and the market will be clearer then.
To sum up, Feicheng City recently recess period, in addition to cash crop areas, grass-roots sales are light. There is still a period of time before autumn fertilizer, and distributors are waiting for manufacturers to introduce preferential policies. Later, the domestic fertilizer market will not have too much turbulence, the focus of the fertilizer market will focus on the export market.