Global Data said on June 17 that global polyethylene production is expected to grow substantially in the next five years, from 101.2 million tons per year in 2018 to 157.02 million tons per year in 2023, and that under the leadership of Asia and North America, global polyethylene production will grow by 43%.
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According to the company’s report, “Prospects for the global polyethylene industry by 2023 – forecasts of capacity and capital expenditure, and details of all the factories under operation and planned construction” show that there are about 159 planned and announced construction factories in the next five years, mainly in Asia and the Middle East.
Asian polyethylene production capacity is expected to increase from 39.87 million tons per year in 2018 to 57.1 million tons per year in 2023, with an average annual growth of 7.2%. By 2023, China’s production capacity in the region will increase by 7.56 million tons per year. The main new capacity will come from Dushanzi Polyethylene Plant No. 2 of Dushanzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and will reach 600,000 tons per year by 2023.
Dayan and Kharade, oil and gas analyst at GlobalData, said: “In Asia, China, with its large population and growing economy, is expected to see continued growth in polyethylene demand. To meet this demand, China will substantially increase production capacity. China will account for more than 40% of Asia’s new polyethylene production capacity.
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GlobalData points out that North America is the second most productive region in the global polyethylene industry. It is expected to increase from 23.15 million tons per year in 2018 to 33.82 million tons per year in 2023, with an annual growth rate of 7.6%. Most of the increased polyethylene production capacity came from the United States, with a capacity of about 9.35 million tons per year by 2023. The main new capacity will come from factories, ExxonMobil Bomont High Performance Polyethylene Plant and Chevron Phillips Chemical Company Pasadena Polyethylene Plant, with annual capacity of 1.3 million tons and 9.9 million tons respectively.
In the Middle East, polyethylene production capacity is expected to increase from 20.8 million tons per year in 2018 to 28.52 million tons per year in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.3%. By 2023, Iran’s oil production capacity will increase by about 5.54 million tons per day. The new capacity mainly comes from NPC Hormozgan Polyethylene Plant 1 and NPC Hormozgan Polyethylene Plant 2. By 2023, their capacity will reach 500,000 tons per year.
Kharade added: “For North America and the Middle East, low-cost, abundant natural gas supply is the main reason for the surge in polyethylene production capacity. In addition to the advantages of raw materials, the target export to other US countries is also the reason for the substantial increase in U.S. production capacity.
The production capacity of polyethylene in Russia is expected to increase from 2.95 million tons per year in 2018 to 9.16 million tons per year in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.6%. Russia is expected to become the largest oil producer in the region by 2023, with an annual capacity increase of 4.63 million tons. The new capacity mainly comes from the Nakhodka polyethylene plant of Far East Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and will reach 880,000 tons per year by 2023.
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Africa is the fifth highest, increasing from 2.05 million tons per year in 2018 to 4.7 million tons per year in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.6%. Egypt is ahead of Africa in terms of capacity growth and is expected to increase capacity by 1.35 million tons per year by 2023.
Badlands NGLS, Petroleum and Natural Gas and Royal Dutch Shell are the top three companies in the world that plan to increase production capacity in the future.