First, the trend analysis According to business data monitoring shows: Since May, the domestic cobalt market shock adjustment, cobalt price shock fell, the overall cobalt price powerless rebound rise. As at May 19 cobalt price of 251833.33 yuan/ton, compared with May 1 cobalt price 272500.00 yuan/ton fell, a decrease of 7.58%.
Compared to April, cobalt prices suddenly fell sharply in May, and the dawn of cobalt was hard to cash.
II. Analysis of macroeconomic environment
1, international cobalt price rise weak
Category specifications
Lowest price
Change
Highest price
Change
Unit
2019.5.3
2019.5.17
2019.4.3
2019.4.26
Standard Grade Cobalt
16.35
16.25
-0.1
17.05
16.8
-0.25
USD/lb
Alloy grade Cobalt
17
17
0
18
17.7
-0.3
USD/lb
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International Market MB quoted a small decline in May, the fall in international cobalt prices dragged down the domestic cobalt market.
LME market Cobalt Price into May after the stability of cobalt prices, cobalt City lost the momentum of rise, the domestic market cobalt price bearish.
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2. Escalation of Sino-US trade disputes May 9–The U.S. government announced that the tariff rate on the 200 billion dollar list of goods imported from China has increased from 10% to 25% since May 10. May 13, China’s State Council tariff committee issued a notice that from 0 o’clock on the June 1, will be imposed tariffs on the 60 billion of dollars list of United States goods, the increase in tariff rates, respectively, the implementation of 25%, 20% or 10% of the levy tariff. 5% tariffs continue to be imposed on items that have previously been imposed on tariff lines of 5%.
Sino-US trade disputes escalated, the macroeconomic environment deteriorated, the non-ferrous metal market and cobalt city formed a negative, cobalt price rise weak.
3. Trump delays imposing tariffs on cars U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to delay the decision to impose tariffs on imported cars and parts for six months to temporarily avoid expanding global trade disputes, foreign media four reported. Trump’s delay in imposing tariffs on cars comes at a time when the United States is trying to reach a potential trade deal with China to end escalating conflict.
The suspension of the imposition of tariffs on cars in the United States has created a greater boon for the city of Cobalt, but has not changed the current situation of oversupply in cobalt city.
Iii. New Energy Vehicles In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 102,000 and 97,000 vehicles respectively, an increase of 25% and 18.1% respectively over a year earlier, according to the latest data released by the Federation.
In April, the new energy passenger car market entered the subsidy transition period, although the new energy vehicle achieved a good sales level of 91,000 units, an increase of 28.4% yoy, but March-year growth-17%, compared with the March decline, the demand for cobalt market after the bearish.
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Iv. growth in mobile phone sales China ICT Institute data show that in April 2019, the domestic mobile phone market overall shipments of 36.53 million, an increase of 6.7%, 2019 1-April, the domestic mobile phone market overall shipments of 113 million, a decrease of 6.7%.
Although mobile phone sales in 2019 are still a big decline from the same period in 18, but the April rise for the market to bring a glimmer of good, the increase in mobile phone sales on the demand for cobalt market in the aftermarket has a certain positive.
V. Outlook for the aftermarket: Business data analyst Baijia believes that since entering the May, international cobalt prices have been weak, can not bring good domestic cobalt prices, on the contrary, the international economic environment continues to deteriorate, the escalation of Sino-US trade disputes to cobalt market has a greater profit, affecting the rebound of cobalt city. Sales of new energy vehicles in the country increased in April compared with the same period last year, but the decline in sales over March also shows that the decline in subsidies has a greater impact on the sale of new energy vehicles, to the cobalt market. Although the United States also suspended the positive stimulus of tariffs on cars in May, eased trade disputes between the European Union and Japan and the United States, avoided a third-tier war in the United States, had little impact on China, and changes in tariffs were difficult to change the status quo of the oversupply in cobalt market is limited to the cobalt market. The larger good news from the mobile phone market, although the 19 mobile phone market Overall performance is not good, but a gradual upward trend, of which April mobile phone sales are up 6.7% from the same period last year, the April mobile phone market performance is excellent, for the aftermarket demand for cobalt market to bring new vitality, the increase in cobalt prices have a greater positive. But overall, the current stage of Cobalt City is still in a state of oversupply, cobalt prices rose indefinitely, expected after the market cobalt price shock fell, cobalt city is difficult to recover the dawn.
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