A few recent events in the potassium chloride market.

In the low season potassium chloride market is poor, after the wind direction is also clear and rainy, elusive. To what extent has the price of potassium chloride fallen now? Is there any impact of Sino-US trade frictions? Exchange rate fluctuation, Qinghai reduction and other factors under the big contract negotiations will be how? Domestic potassium faucet Salt Lake shares next month will be how to adjust the new price?

Now let’s take a look at apostles.

Imported potassium falls below cost line after 51 For fertilizer people, this year’s spring has come particularly late but the walk is not muddy. After 51, the price of potassium chloride all the way down, the current border trade 62% white potassium has fallen to less than 2050 yuan (ton price, the same below), the port 60% red powder has fallen to less than 2150 yuan, and the former May monthly import cost price of 2120 yuan, the latter’s apparent cost of 2310 Yuan, rebate after the cost of 2160 yuan, That is to say, at least a loss of 70 yuan and 10 yuan respectively. As for the port 62% white potassium, especially 60% red granular potassium price some confusion, the general quotation, ton package or bulk goods quotation and the actual transaction price of the overall range is larger, probably near 2280-2380 yuan, and its apparent cost, return after the cost of the range of 2200-2380 yuan, It can be said that a leg has also stepped into the loss.

And the key problem is that it is not yet possible to conclude that such a price is already bottoming out.

The influence of Sino-US trade friction upgrade Talk about to go to the tariff or add to each other, in the face of the trade war, other we dare not say, potash people can indeed pat the chest said “to fight and fight”, because-potassium chloride, potassium sulfate import and export and the United States does not have much intersection. This point the previous day has the industry detailed list of data, the author will not repeat. In addition, there is a voice in the market that Sino-US trade frictions have reduced imports of agricultural products, favorable to the rise in domestic agricultural prices, increased demand, and indirectly will be good fertilizer demand and prices. In this regard, the author has reservations. Because one of the agricultural products to add tariffs is the last thing that has happened, nearly a year of agricultural product prices have surged? The other is that we only add to the United States, not with the world! Therefore, do not be too “hot blood”, do not forget the upper layer of strong regulatory capacity, and do not ignore the import volume and structure of the details of the change.

The key also to remember that strength is not created by not letting people in!

Production reduction, devaluation and large contract negotiation In the early stage, I have repeatedly stressed that the second half of potassium chloride trend can be reversed one of the key points lies in the extent of domestic potassium production reduction, at present, this reduction has indeed reached the point of not to be belittled. Just now, domestic potassium production in the top three of the enterprise’s potassium chloride daily production of only about 14,000 tons, 24% less than the same period last year, 30% less than the same period in 2017! Of course, this kind of contrast is not really convincing, because it is only a small short period of performance, but the author is still more worried about the last six months to end the various statistical data after the market response.

In addition, from May 9 to date, the renminbi has fallen 8 days against the dollar, the median price from 6.7596 to 6.8988, today’s real-time exchange price has reached about 6.93, such a change will make potassium chloride import costs up to nearly 50 yuan. At first glance, the above two points seem to support the domestic price of potassium chloride, but in fact not necessarily. First of all, although the production of domestic potassium will reduce the weight of negotiations, but the current low-season potassium chloride port stock is far greater than the same period in previous years, and nearly half a year the price of the international potash market has been stable and difficult to rise, in the past six months there have been about 5 of dollars in the fall, so the 82 weight of foreign investors Because the upward trend is not good, so changes in the exchange rate are more likely to be reflected in the buyer’s price, so the rise in the cost of the yuan’s price increase is likely to be reflected in the big contract is down 5-6 of dollars, which is only from the exchange rate point of view.

From the existing situation analysis, the author initially believes that the new large-contract negotiations on both sides can not be delayed, the signing time should still be within 7-September, the price on the basis of 290 of dollars or about 10-20 of dollars in the fall.

Forecast of domestic potassium June price Salt Lake June New Price is afraid to fall back, according to the current import potassium price situation, if the fall or will be around 50 yuan. First of all, in the low season, Hong Kong deposit, so the short-term price trend is impossible to reverse, second, the recent decline in imports of potassium is obvious, the coastal market in the domestic potassium circulation price has followed the downward adjustment; third, after 4 May of sales, Salt Lake in June need to ensure a certain collection, even if not cut prices but there may be other

But after this stage of the off-season, in the second half of the domestic potassium production and marketing situation will appear to be particularly important, you can look forward to perhaps become the trigger of the late price increase. In summary, no matter how to see the aftermarket, want to carry out what kind of operation, now do not have to worry, first patiently watch it.