BP recently released the 2019 Chinese version of BP World Energy outlook in Beijing.
According to the BP World Energy outlook, natural gas will become a major increase in future energy consumption in the outlook period, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7% per cent for natural gas supply and demand, that is, an increase of almost 50% per cent by 2040, the only energy to grow as a share of renewables.
A rapid growth of natural gas consumption in China Data show that China’s total energy consumption of 4.64 billion tons of standard coal in 2018, an increase of 3.3% over the previous year. In terms of segmentation, coal consumption increased by 1%, crude oil consumption increased by 6.5%, natural gas consumption increased by 17.7% and electricity consumption increased by 8.5%.
Coal consumption accounted for 59% of total energy consumption, down 1.4% from the previous year, crude oil consumption accounted for 20.3% of total energy consumption, an increase of 0.6%, natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and other clean energy consumption accounted for 20.7% of total energy consumption, an increase of 0.8%.
From the BP Outlook, the absolute amount of coal consumption in China will decline in the future, the absolute amount of crude oil consumption still has a small growth space, but the proportion of both will be further compressed, and the natural gas market still has more than 200% of the huge growth space, which is the next 20 years China’s primary energy growth point. Unlike the abundant reserves of coal resources, China’s limited reserves of oil and gas resources have been difficult to meet the rapidly growing demand for oil and natural gas consumption. China overtook the United States as the world’s largest importer of crude oil in 2017, surpassing Japan as the world’s largest importer of natural gas in 2018. Especially in recent years, due to rapid economic development, rising energy demand triggered a steady increase in imports, crude oil imports 462 million tons in 2018, import growth rate of 10%, natural gas imports exceeded 90 million tons (125.4 billion cubic meters), the growth rate is up to 32%. The data show that China’s crude oil dependence degree in 2018 has reached 72%, natural gas external dependence reached more than 45%, and this external dependence is becoming more and more serious.
The final share of crude oil imports is likely to exceed 75%, approaching 80%, the share of natural gas imports will exceed 50% in 2 years, and consumption will continue to grow by 200% over the Outlook period, and imports will also have much room for growth. By comparison, we can find that natural gas production in recent years has maintained a relatively rapid growth, which mainly stems from the large-scale development of natural gas resources in China late, there is still a certain capacity potential can be excavated.
For the crude oil industry, which has been developed earlier, the production capacity has been basically fully excavated, and some oilfields have passed the peak production period. China’s crude oil production has been basically stable since 2010, and has even declined in recent years. Although there are differences in the potential of the production end, the combination of the two lies in a significant increase in external imports at the same time, because only increasing imports can meet China’s demand for crude oil and natural gas resources.
B Global distribution of natural gas reserves Natural gas is a collective term of mixed gas with hydrocarbon as the main body in underground rock reservoirs, with a specific gravity of about 0.65, which is lighter than air and has the characteristics of colorless, tasteless and non-toxic. The main ingredient alkanes, of which methane accounts for the vast majority, with a small amount of ethane, propane and butane.
As a clean energy source, it can reduce sulfur dioxide and dust emissions by nearly 100%, reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60% and NOx emissions by 50%, and has become more and more widely used in China’s industrial and civil fields in recent years. By the end of 2017, the top ten countries with proven global natural gas reserves were Russia, Iran, Qatar, Turkmenistan, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, the UAE, China and Nigeria, with Russia’s proven reserves of up to 34.97 trillion cubic meters. Five of the world’s top ten natural gas fields are located in Russia, namely Urengoy, Shtokman, Yamburg, Zapolyarnoye, Bovanenko gas fields. Siberia’s natural gas reserves account for about 50% of Russia’s total reserves.
GAZPROM is the world’s largest producer of natural gas. Russia has now become an important importer of natural gas in China because of its abundant natural gas reserves and its proximity to China.
After the completion of the East line of the Sino-Russian natural gas pipeline, 38 billion square natural gas (about 34 million tons of oil equivalent) is delivered to China at the highest annual level. The proven reserves of natural gas in Iran and Qatar are 33.22 trillion cubic metres and 24.92 trillion cubic metres, respectively, with the world’s largest natural gas Tinampars field, a large part of which is located in Iran (the other part is in Qatar). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), an estimated 51 trillion cubic metres of natural gas and 50 billion barrels of condensate are stored in the South Pars gas field. It is worth mentioning that, according to the total reserves of proven oil and gas equivalent (crude oil + natural gas), Iran reached 382.2 billion barrels, nearly 18% per cent higher than Saudi Arabia (321.3 billion barrels in Saudi Arabia).
In other words, Iran is actually the real first oil and gas power in the Middle East, not Saudi Arabia. Turkmenistan ranks # 17.5 trillion of the world’s proven reserves of natural gas, converting 115.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent, which is higher than the proven oil reserves (102.4 billion barrels) of Russia as a whole. It is important to stress that China’s PetroChina has invested heavily in natural gas projects in Turkmenistan.
Turkmenistan is the country that supplies the largest number of natural gas to China, and its natural gas is an important source of gas in China’s west-to-east gas transmission. Shale gas in unconventional natural gas is a market hotspot in recent years, and according to a May 2018 report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), China ranks first in the world (up to 31.6 trillion cubic meters) in shale gas reserves, which is close to the proven reserves of Russian gas; Argentina ( 22.7 trillion cubic metres), Algeria (20 trillion cubic metres), the United States (17.7 trillion cubic metres) and Canada (16.2 trillion cubic metres) ranked second to fifth, respectively. Currently, the world’s total exploitable shale gas reserves are expected to reach 214.5 trillion cubic metres, a total reserve equivalent to 61 years of global natural gas consumption in the current context. The report, which is also confirmed in a forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), says China has the resources to become the largest shale gas reserve (1115 trillion trillion cubic feet, 31.6 trillion cubic meters), far more than Argentina, now the world’s second-largest shale gas reserve country.
The crux of the problem is that large-scale shale gas mining is currently carried out only in North America, where the United States and Canada are located, and China is significantly ahead of other countries in terms of shale gas reserves, with deep mining potential, but there is still a big difference between the potential and ability of shale gas mining and the proven recoverable reserves, and it is still not known how
C major producers of natural gas Statistics show that the global share of production in the United States and Russia in the major gas producers in 2017 was 20% and 17%, respectively. After the shale oil revolution, the United States produced more natural gas than Russia, and still has great potential for development.
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Notably, natural gas production in the Middle East has been growing at a high rate since 2000, and it will be a central force in the global increase in natural gas during the outlook period. Iran, Qatar Although the current phase seems to be a large gap with the United States and Russia gas production, but the subsequent potential is huge, two countries with abundant reserves in the future is expected to catch up, it appears that the two countries are increasing investment, increase their domestic gas exports, in recent years the growth rate is clear, the future to occupy a larger market share will be a foregone
Turkmenistan, which also has a huge reserves, is not in the top ten producing countries, but for my country, as an important supplier of resources, its status is very important for the security of our energy supply, and steadily advancing the country’s natural gas development is a reasonable way to cooperate. China is the sixth largest natural gas producer, because of weather, environmental protection and other reasons, China itself does not export natural gas, but need to import a large amount of natural gas.
D major consumer countries of natural gas The “2018 domestic and foreign oil and gas Industry Development Report” released by the China Petroleum Group Institute of Economic Technology shows that global gas consumption in 2018 was about 3.86 trillion cubic meters, a growth rate of 5.3%, 2.3 times times the average of 2.3% in the past 5 years. Among them, the United States, Russia, China ranked in the top three consumer countries. About 1.21 trillion cubic meters of natural gas in the world need to be imported to meet consumer demand, accounting for about 1/3 of total natural gas consumption, importing countries, China, Japan, Germany, the top three, import volume exceeded 100 billion cubic meters, especially China’s 2018 years of imports jumped nearly 35 billion cubic meters,
Reached 125.4 billion cubic metres. U.S. gas consumption is well ahead of other countries, with total gas consumption of 848.135 billion cubic meters (82.06 billion cubic feet per day) in 2018. EIA predicts that future U.S. gas consumption will grow steadily on the basis of 2018. Natural gas, after oil, is the second largest source of energy consumption in the United States, accounting for about 29% of total primary energy consumption in the United States.
2017, the main consumption of natural gas in the United States in five industries: industry, accounting for 35%; Power generation, accounted for 34%; civil, accounted for 16%; commerce, accounting for 12%; and transport, accounting for 3%. Russia, the world’s second-largest consumer of natural gas, consumed 454.5 billion cubic metres in 2018. Previous data show that Russia’s primary energy consumption composition of natural gas accounted for 53.6%, followed by oil accounted for 19.1%, coal accounted for 16.4%, nuclear power accounted for 5%, hydropower accounted for 5.9%. The main areas of natural gas consumption are power generation and household consumption.
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75% of the natural gas consumed by Russian domestic industry and residents is supplied by Gazprom, which had a domestic supply of 307 billion cubic meters to Russia in 2005. China ranks third in global gas consumption, consuming 276.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2018. In terms of consumption structure, according to the data of Prospective research institute, Urban Gas, industry and power generation gas are the main driving forces of natural gas consumption growth, accounting for 36%, 33% and 22% of total natural gas consumption respectively, and chemical gas use accounts for about 9%. In the face of huge demand growth rate, although China has made efforts to increase domestic production, but still far from meeting the demand, natural gas imports quickly increased, 2018 China’s natural gas dependence of more than 45%, the second half of the annual up to 48%. According to the forecast, China’s natural gas consumption in 2019 will exceed 300 billion cubic meters, an increase of 11.3% year-on.
The government’s “Blue Sky Defense” action Plan continues to be implemented, and the environmental factors will continue to be the main driving force behind the short-term promotion of domestic gas demand in various localities to strengthen the management of scattered coal.
E natural gas Import in China presents diversified pattern China’s annual imports of natural gas from abroad include pipeline gas and LNG two ways, the current LNG import ratio of nearly 60%, pipeline gas imports about 40%, which is different from the global natural gas trade pipeline gas and LNG accounted for a greater difference. 2018 Global Pipeline Gas trade volume of 771 billion cubic meters, the global LNG trade volume of 324 million tons (440.6 billion cubic meters), pipeline gas trade accounted for up to 64%.
By comparison, we can find that pipeline transportation still has great growth potential in the growth of China’s natural gas industry. At present, China’s pipeline gas trade imported pipeline gas used in the transmission pipeline and domestic gas connection, imported LNG relies on the construction of LNG receiving station for transit storage. Of all the overseas LNG entering the receiving station, about 30% per cent were re-gasified and entered the pipeline, and about 70% were shipped to the downstream consumer markets in the form of LNG, such as tankers, which would change significantly with the establishment of the national oil and gas pipeline company. At the beginning of 2019, the national oil and gas pipeline company formation program has been approved and included in the 2019 SASAC key work plan, is expected to be formally established this year.
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The establishment of oil and gas pipeline company is mainly to solve the problem of interconnection of natural gas pipe network and lag of pipeline construction. According to the “2018-2023 China New Energy industry development prospects and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report”, the main importer of pipeline natural gas in China is Turkmenistan, accounting for 83% of total imports, and other importing countries are Myanmar, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, especially from Uzbekistan
, Kazakhstan’s imports of pipeline gas increased significantly by 25%, an increase of 15% over the previous year; LNG mainly imports Australia, Qatar, Malaysia, Indonesia, the total number of four countries accounted for 81%. Although Russia is a major gas producer and has a geographical advantage bordering China, it has previously imported very little natural gas from Russia. Data show that in 2018, China only imported 730,000 tons of natural gas from Russia, accounting for less than 1% of the total import volume. With the completion of the construction of the corresponding pipeline in the future and the completion of large LNG projects such as Yamal, China will import more and more natural gas from Russia, and it is expected that by 2020, China’s natural gas import pipeline gas transmission capacity can reach 127 billion cubic meters, of which the Chinese and Russian import pipeline gas capacity can reach 60 billion cubic meters.
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