Review of the impact of oil price trend between 一、五一期 Entering the May, the United States formally imposed sanctions on the Iranian side, cancelling the immunity of other countries from crude oil imports to Iran’s crude oil. In addition to the OPEC release to continue to cut production of good support, oil prices have been temporarily rebound opportunity. However, U.S. crude inventories grew by an increase in net imports to their highest level since September 2017, while U.S. production refreshed highs again, while uncertainty over sanctions on the Iranian side exacerbated the fall in international oil prices, according to US EIA data.
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It then rebounded temporarily or slightly under favourable conditions for the dollar to fall and Russia to continue to cut production.
Ii. Analysis of US EIA data this week Inventory aspects: As of April 19, the Week, U.S. crude oil inventories 460.633 million barrels, the highest level since October 2017, up 5.48 million barrels from the previous week; the total U.S. gasoline stock was 225.826 million barrels, down 2.13 million barrels from the previous week; the distillate oil depot stock was 127.029 million barrels, down 660,000 barrels from the previous week.
The Cushing area has a crude oil stockpile of 44.912 million barrels, an increase of 463,000 barrels. Import and export aspects: As of April 19, the Week, Last week, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.149 million barrels a day, an average of 1.157 million barrels a year from the previous week, and a daily average of 2.681 million barrels of U.S. crude oil exports, an increase of 280,000 barrels a day over the previous week, an increase of 350,000 barrels over the same period last year, and an average of 4.468 million barrels of net U.S. crude oil in the past week
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Processing: As of April 19, the total amount of refinery processing in the United States averaged 16.583 million barrels per day, an increase of 505,000 barrels compared with the previous week, and the refinery start rate was 90.1%, an increase of 2.4% over the previous week. Yield: As of April 19, the average daily production of U.S. crude oil was 12.3 million barrels, an increase of 100,000 barrels a week compared with the average daily output.
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Three, multi-empty influence against each other
1, the factors of profit and multi: Venezuela’s political crisis has intensified, threatening the state’s export of crude oil, which has fallen as a result of US sanctions.
Thousands of marchers rallied this week in response to opposition Leader Guardiola’s call for May 1 to hold an operation against President Nicolas Maduro. The U.S. government has asked all buyers to stop importing Iranian oil from this week or face sanctions.
Previously, OPEC member Iran’s eight largest buyers, most of them Asian countries, were allowed to import a limited amount of Iranian oil. The Saudis welcomed the US move to end all Iranian sanctions exemptions and said they were prepared to meet the needs of oil consumers by replacing Iranian oil supplies. Meanwhile, Saudi energy ministers say there has been a lot of discussion with energy ministers from other oil-producing countries, and basically everyone wants the deal to cut production to be extended.
In addition to the Saudi energy minister: Saudi crude oil exports are expected to be below 7 million barrels/day by the end of May.
Iran’s oil minister, Zangane, said in Thursday (May 2) that Iran would respond if other OPEC members threatened Iran’s interests. In Friday, the Labor Department reported a significant 263,000 increase in non-farm employment in April, with unemployment falling to 3.6%, a low of more than 49 years.
In addition, the labour participation rate in April fell to 62.8% per cent in the previous 63%. It is reported that two industry sources said May 3, because of Russian crude oil contaminated with organic chlorinated pollution caused by serious disruption of exports, Russian oil producers have received the pipeline Monopoly Enterprise Transneft notice, demand to reduce production by May 7 900,000 tons.
The figure is estimated to be equivalent to about 10% of Russia’s total oil production, equivalent to a production cut of more than 1 million barrels/day in the coming days.
2, the negative factors:
Russian oil output fell from 11.3 million barrels per day in March to 11.23 million barrels per day in April, but is still higher than the target set by the agreement to cut production, according to data released by the Russian Ministry of Energy in Thursday.
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U.S. crude inventories increased to their highest level in September 2017 due to net imports of crude oil for January, while U.S. crude oil production rose to a record high of 12.3 million barrels/day, according to EIA data.
China’s April official manufacturing Purchasing Managers ‘ index (PMI) fell to 50.1, down from the median survey estimate of 50.5, down 0.4% from the previous month, and in April the/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 50.2, with the median survey estimated at 51.0 and 50.8 respectively last month.
Iv. Pre-market preview The United States has formally begun to impose full sanctions on Iran, removing exemptions from other countries for crude oil imports from Iran. It is worth noting that U.S. stocks on the Iranian side of the sanctions can be approved by China, Turkey and other major Iranian crude oil imports have not yet been decided. From processing for a short time to find Iran crude oil substitution has its own and difficulties. Iran’s current export volume in 1 million barrels per day, once it becomes 0, Saudi Russia and other countries can not close the supply gap in the short term, while Iran’s crude oil exports are completely restricted, the greater possibility of armed blockade of the Hormuz, Str. Of, increase supply disruption, oil prices will be a big rise in the opportunity. So the focus of the market will shift to the OPEC conference and whether the United States is again exempt from Iranian crude oil imports.
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