It was May and during the May Day holiday, the fertilizer market was not relaxed at all, but it was at the end of spring and the fertilizer market was relatively light. Let’s talk about the adjustment of ammonium chloride Market for small nitrogen fertilizer in May. At present, the domestic ammonium chloride multi-market factories have sufficient orders to be issued and some of them are in short supply. Therefore, if you want to get the goods, you still need to “wait” and the overall market price is running at a high level. For example, according to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the mainstream domestic dry ammonium factory quotation is about 650-800 yuan/ton, and some of the transactions can be negotiated, of course, the price outside the province is lower than this. However, there are exceptions to the above situation. The representative is the northeast, where demand is over, ammonium chloride is abundant, cargo is under pressure, and prices are falling. The price of mackerel circle before the festival has dropped to 780 yuan/ton, and the turnover is still slow, which is obviously different from the southern market.
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In May, the local ammonium chloride market is slightly delicate. Although the spot market is still relatively tight, the price is now loose. Next, the price trend of ammonium chloride has become the focus of attention in the industry. The following points will be explained.
Firstly, it is difficult to reduce the high-level operation of joint alkali enterprises in the short term. The new capacity load of a large ammonium chloride plant in Henan has increased smoothly. Most of the large ammonium chloride plants in Jiangsu and Southwest China have been overloaded for a long time. Only half of the units in a large ammonium chloride plant in Hubei have been overhauled but will be restored soon. According to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the overall industry start-up rate of the joint alkali enterprises has risen to 82%. However, there are fewer ammonium chloride enterprises planned to be overhauled, only one plant in Jiangsu It is scheduled to be repaired for three days from May 10. In addition, two factories in Jiangsu and Chongqing are scheduled to stop inspection for about half a month at the end of the next ten days. However, even if parking is still available for export, it is obvious that ammonium chloride enterprises will maintain a high level at least in the first ten days of operation. And the soda market is considerable, some enterprises will still focus on production of soda, at the same time, the production of ammonium chloride will rise.
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Secondly, the price of urea fluctuates slightly. From the point of view of supply and demand, the bearish trend of urea accounts for the majority. The transportation of liquid ammonia, which is closely related to urea production, is limited during May 1st. Under the double pressure of environmental protection and safety inspection, while liquid ammonia keeps low inventory, some enterprises will focus on urea production and increase urea shipments more or less. In the off-season of agricultural demand, most wholesale commodities in the market are priced or even partly stopped wholesale. Hefei enterprises have high sales pressure, low production enthusiasm, plywood plant and other needs are still supported, but after all, limited, so in the situation of high urea start-up and weak demand, the market is unlikely to improve, which will affect the purchasing volume of ammonium chloride for enterprises such as compound fertilizer.
Thirdly, the new demand for ammonium chloride has slowed down and the turnover has cooled down. First, during the gap period of spring and summer, ammonium chloride enterprises have sufficient orders to be issued, while more than 200,000 tons are less than 10,000 tons. That is to say, the raw material reserves of compound fertilizer plants and extruded granular ammonium chloride plants are sufficient, and the demand for filling orders will be very limited in the later period. Second, when the market demand in Northeast China is over, some ammonium chloride supplies in the southern market have to change their sales direction, while prices in Northeast China are declining. To a certain extent, it affects the trend of other regions; thirdly, the export volume is far from easing the pressure of domestic ammonium chloride shipment. According to customs data, the total export volume of ammonium chloride for fertilizer and non-fertilizer in March was 71.3 million tons, and the total export volume of ammonium chloride for non-fertilizer was 74.6 million tons, which increased compared with February. However, in the same period of previous years, the export volume in April should not change greatly or decrease. The domestic market is likely to increase in the amount of digestion awaited.
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Finally, in a comprehensive view, the short-term sufficient standby still makes the spot market tight, and the firm’s confidence in the bid price is relatively sufficient. Therefore, it is expected that the ammonium chloride market will continue to run at a high level in May. If there are small orders in some parts, the price will probably increase slightly for the settlement of the factory. However, from the perspective of the high start-up and the light of new orders and the limited replenishment orders, it is expected that May will be the month. While the price of ammonium chloride is firm, local transactions should be loosened.