Core view
At present, there are short-term upstream re-production and production reduction, medium-term external disk increment and olefin production, long-term production safety and environmental protection management and other factors, short-term operation is biased, but attention should be paid to whether Jiutai MTO plant can start smoothly, and whether the price can break through the safe marginal production cost of methanol.
| Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent) |
Bulk internal reference: Methanol is obviously weak in recent years. Today’s daily line receives a big negative line, leading the decline in commodities. In fact, the whole chemical sector is relatively weak in recent years. What do you think is the cause? Do you think methanol will continue to fall in the future?
Zhao Ting: In the early period, OPEC eased the global oil supply and demand situation. The sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran directly aroused the bullish mood of the market, and had a good basis for reducing production. As a trigger, the sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran directly promoted oil prices to break through the previous period of shock and create a new high. Oil prices have recovered in the last two days, mainly due to the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories. In the case of strong crude oil, downstream chemical products have declined in varying degrees, mainly because the rising price of crude oil affects the profits of the chemical industry through three mechanisms: cost, inventory and consumption. At present, the methanol inventory has increased. Under the background of increasing inventory and weak downstream demand, it is difficult to pull up the price of crude oil even if it goes up.
As of April 25, methanol stocks in Jiangsu were 617,300 tons (without Lianyungang area), up 34,800 tons from April 18, up 5.97%. A small number of downstream factories in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other places continue to replenish goods from Taicang area. At present, the total circulation supply of Jiangsu is 146,000 tons. Methanol inventory in Zhejiang (Jiaxing and Ningbo) was 207,500 tons, up 0.84 million tons from April 18, an increase of 4.22%. Recent arrivals were mainly imported goods. As a whole, Zhejiang’s negotiable goods supply is 0.7 million tons. At present, methanol inventory in South China (excluding Fujian) is 98.3 million tons, 30,000 tons less than that on April 18, a decline of 23.38%. Fujian has an overall circulation supply of 26,000 tons. Pay attention to the large number of internal references, do not miss every wonderful research report!
| EDTA |
Overall, methanol stocks in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang and South China) rose to 953,100 tons, and the total methanol circulatable supply in coastal areas is estimated to be around 259,000 tons. According to incomplete statistics, from April 26 to May 12, the arrival volume of Chinese imports was 307,500 tons. From mid-late May, Iranian and non-Iranian cargo arrived in eastern and southern China to unload, especially Iranian cargo. In addition, transshipment cargo was reported to exist in a few areas.
Port inventory is high, it is difficult to continue to depot, upstream start-up rate rises annually, but still maintain a relatively low level, upstream inventory is high. On the mainland side, the peak of spring inspection has passed. Intermittent demand can not consume the supply pressure of the mainland. Inventory in the downstream is high. The commissioning of several new MTO units downstream may delay start-up, chemical industry overhaul and renovation, delay the speed of depot elimination and sluggish demand. At present, both the port and the mainland need to add new MTO demand-driven, to see if Jiutai MTO device can successfully start. Short-term skewed view.
Bulk internal reference: Do you have any suggestions on operation?
Zhao Ting: At present, there are short-term upstream reproduction and reduction of production, medium-term increment of external disks and production of olefins, long-term production safety and environmental protection management and other factors, short-term operation is biased, but we should pay attention to whether Jiutai MTO plant can start smoothly, at the same time, we need to pay attention to whether the price can break through the safe marginal production cost of methanol.
| Melamine |