Recently, the international oil price has risen continuously to a new high in the second half of the year. Affected by this, this Friday (April 26) the domestic oil product price is expected to rise for the seventh time in the year, and the price increase of gasoline and diesel is expected to exceed 100 yuan per ton.
Since this year, sustained production cuts in non-OPEC oil-producing countries such as OPEC and Russia have resulted in tight supply in the oil market. Data show that OPEC crude oil production fell to about 30 million barrels per day in March, down more than 2.3 million barrels per day from last October’s high.
The escalation of U.S. sanctions against Iran has further heightened market concerns about future supply shortages. On April 23, international oil prices continued their upward momentum. As of the close, the price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $0.75 to $66.3 per barrel, or 1.14 per cent. London Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose $0.47, or 0.63%, to close at $74.51 a barrel.
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Affected by this, the reference rate of crude oil price change for domestic refined oil retail price adjustment is moving forward and the range is gradually expanding. According to Jin Lianchuang’s calculation, as of the seventh working day of April 23, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 69.65 US dollars per barrel, with a change rate of 3%. The corresponding gasoline and diesel oil should be increased by 125 yuan per ton. The price adjustment window for this round is 24:00 on April 26. “Influenced by the Iranian issue, international oil prices or maintain a high level of operation, this round of product oil retail price increase is no longer suspense.” Said Zou Xuelian, an oil analyst at Jinlianchuang.
According to the data released by Xinhua Oil Price System, the average price change rate of crude oil package on April 23 is 3.58%, and it is expected to expand further in the next two working days. When the price adjustment window of refined oil opens at 24pm on April 26th, the price of domestic refined oil will rise again. It is estimated that the price of gasoline and diesel oil will rise by 190 yuan per ton, or 0.15 yuan per litre of 92# gasoline, or 0.16 yuan per litre of diesel oil.
Up to now, in 2019, the retail price limit of domestic refined oil has experienced seven price adjustment windows, which is “six rises and one strand”. In addition, due to the adjustment of VAT rate, since 24:00 on March 31, 2019, the highest retail prices of domestic gasoline and diesel have been reduced by 225 yuan and 200 yuan per ton respectively. After offsetting the rise and fall, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel have been increased by 680 yuan and 675 yuan per ton since this year.
In the wholesale market, the activity is low, the main business units began to reduce prices for sales pressure, and the domestic automobile and diesel market fell again. However, the recent tightening of U.S. policy toward Iran has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, strong news and a rebound in domestic automobile and diesel prices. As of April 23, the average price of 0# diesel oil in China was 6588 yuan/ton, up 236 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; the average price of 92# gasoline was 7114 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. Zero price difference of 0# diesel oil batch in China was 1142 yuan/ton, 86 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the month, while that of 92# gasoline batch was 2128 yuan/ton, 153 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the month.
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Zou Xuelian believes that on the whole, both the news and supply and demand have been boosted, and there is still room for the domestic automobile and diesel market to go up. Therefore, it is expected that the zero price difference of domestic gasoline and diesel batches will remain down before the price adjustment on Friday. Later, with the implementation of the increase in retail prices and the “May 1″ reserve, the demand for gasoline is difficult to increase significantly. It is expected that the range of gasoline follow-up is limited, and the price difference between wholesale and zero or after the fall tends to be stable and volatile. Diesel oil has a strong fundamentals, and the batch-to-zero price gap may be further narrowed.
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