According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 17, gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2019 was 21.3433 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.4% over the same period last year. Customs data show that from January to March this year, China imported 12168 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 8.2% over the same period last year, and 24.27 million tons of natural gas, an increase of 17.8% over the same period last year.
| Melamine |
The Ministry of Commerce announced that in 2019, the allowable import volume of non-state-owned crude oil trade exceeded 200 million tons, reaching 202 million tons. Roughly estimated, in 2019, the import volume of non-state-owned crude oil trade may exceed 40% of the total import volume of crude oil. Two years ago, the proportion was still below 20%. This releases an important signal that China’s crude oil imports will continue to grow in the first half of 2019. Starting from April, with the start of spring ploughing in China, the demand for refined oil will gradually drive the demand for crude oil.
Internationally, the first quarter of international oil prices showed a volatile upward trend. International oil prices rose significantly in early January, reversing the market downturn at the end of last year. In the middle of the year, as the number of oil drilling wells in the United States hit its biggest decline in nearly three years, Sino-US trade negotiations reappeared and international oil prices rebounded again. In the latter part of the year, OPEC actively implemented the reduction of production and the decline in the number of oil drilling wells in the United States, which stabilized the fluctuation of international oil prices. In February and March, international oil prices continued to rise, Sino-US trade negotiations progressed smoothly, and OPEC cut production significantly.
According to OPEC’s monthly report, its output fell to 32.22 million barrels per day in March, due to production cuts and the Venezuelan crisis. The sharp decline in production has led to tightening of the oil market. OPEC lowered its average demand for crude oil to 30.3 million barrels per day in 2019 and increased global oil demand to 1.21 million barrels per day in 2019.
In addition, OPEC sources said that if oil production in Iran and Venezuela fell further and oil prices rose to $80-85 a barrel by June, oil producers could increase production.
| EDTA |
At present, among the three major benchmark oils, the monthly difference of WTI has fallen, but Brent’s monthly difference is still strong. The EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to be $65.15 per barrel in 2019 (previously expected to be $62.78 per barrel), while expectations for $62 per barrel in 2020 remain unchanged.
| Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent) |