International oil prices have risen by more than 30% in the year

Influenced by continued supply constraints, international crude oil futures prices rose again. Brent crude oil closed on April 19 at $72.01 a barrel, up 0.39%. The index has risen 32.98% since this year. NYMEX light crude oil rose continuously to $64.05 per barrel, up 39.84% in the year. Some analysts believe that at present, production cuts and geopolitics will continue to support international oil prices, but may gradually fall after summer.

Guangzhou Daily News (full media reporter Zhang Zhongan) “Stock market, commodities and other prices are rising. The rise in the stock market was mainly due to relatively loose monetary policy expectations. The rise in international oil prices is due to the decline in inventories, extreme supply and geopolitical factors. A Sunshine Private Equity Officer in Shenzhen said.

International oil prices have risen by more than 30% since this year

Reporters found that the recent international oil prices continue to rise, this year has been a cumulative increase of more than 30%, some varieties have increased by about 40%, and institutions are still in warehousing orders.

In the international market, the price of light crude oil futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in May rose by $0.24 to $64.51 per barrel, or 0.38 Per cent. NYMEX Light Crude continued to contract at $64.05, up 0.30%. Since this year, the index has risen by 39.84%. Meanwhile, London Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose $0.39, or 0.54%, to close at $72.01 a barrel on the latest trading day. Brent crude oil also reported $72.01 in a row, a cumulative increase of 32.98% this year. In addition, the WTI crude oil futures index rose by 40.27% in the same period. In the domestic market, the cumulative increase of crude oil since 1906 has also reached 23.64%.

Private equity analysts have pointed out that crude oil, as a special commodity, has continued to rise since this year, mainly due to concerns about tight supply, including declining inventories and geopolitics leading to a reduction in oil supply in some oil-producing areas. According to media reports, data released last week by the Joint Organisation Data Initiative (JODI) showed that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, lost 277,000 barrels of crude oil a day in February from a year earlier to 697,000 barrels. Wang Qiang, an analyst at Merchants Securities, said Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iraq and Iran were among the countries with the biggest output cuts in March, with Saudi Arabia’s daily output falling by 324,000 barrels per day annually, down more than 1.3 million barrels per day from the 11 million barrels per day record set in November last year. From the implementation rate of production reduction, the overall implementation rate in March has reached about 155%, and the overall performance is still expected by supermarkets.

In the week ending April 12, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 1.396 million barrels, while the market is expected to increase by 2.3 million barrels, according to data released last week by the U.S. EIA.

OPEC’s latest monthly report in April showed that its crude oil production fell by 534,000 barrels per day to 3,022,000 barrels per day in March, the lowest since February 2015. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the second quarter of this year to $72.50 from $65 a barrel. The reason is that the macroeconomic risk-taking environment and changes in supply may push the spot price of crude oil higher. Huang Wentao of CITIC Construction Investment Securities also believes that OPEC production cuts and geopolitical risks increase, making the market optimistic about the development pattern of the crude oil market. At present, the supply of crude oil market is still tightening under the support of production restriction, and the strong situation of crude oil is expected to continue in the short term. He suggested that we should pay close attention to the monthly reports of the three major organizations in the later period.

However, Wang Qiang, an analyst with China Merchants Securities, believes that, in light of the overall supply and demand situation, there is little chance that the production reduction alliance will collapse in the first half of the year. Geopolitics has led to tight supply, and the release of shale production will still depend on the third quarter. Therefore, crude oil supply remained tight in the first half of the year. But the core of sustainability of current production cuts lies in the positive feedback of oil prices and production cuts. The implementation of the action has reached a very high level in March, and there is still some potential to continue to reduce production in some areas in the future, but the space for the reduction alliance to exceed expectations again is too small. “In the next 1 to 2 months, it is expected that the probability of diminishing marginal effects will be unavoidable.” Wang Qiang said. Goldman Sachs analysts also expect oil prices to gradually fall from this summer as shale oil and OPEC crude oil production increases.