The continuous rise of crude oil and the upgrading of domestic chemical safety inspection will play a supporting role in the chemical products sector. At the same time, with the arrival of spring inspection and downstream consumption peak season, methanol fundamentals have gradually improved, which will also provide support for methanol prices.
The international crude oil continues to rise, the explosion of sound water continues to ferment, and the peripheral factors support the price of methanol. At the same time, with the improvement of demand, methanol is also supported, and the methanol rebound is expected to continue.
Peripheral factors continuous fermentation
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Since last year, domestic chemical futures have risen in varying degrees under the continuous upward trend of crude oil prices.
Recently, OPEC’s crude oil production has been declining continuously, and the global crude oil supply and demand have basically balanced. At the same time, Russia declared its support for OPEC’s production restriction policy. According to the current situation, Russia’s crude oil production is still far from the previous agreed reduction. Therefore, the global international crude oil supply still has the possibility of further tightening, oil prices or sustained upward, which will have a beneficial effect on the chemical sector.
On March 21, an explosion occurred in a chemical enterprise in Xiangshui County Industrial Park, Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province, causing heavy casualties. On April 4, the government of Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, decided to close the industrial park. Although this industrial park does not involve the methanol industry, the market generally believes that the security inspection of chemical enterprises will be greatly strengthened by the government in the later period, and the supply of chemical products will be affected to a certain extent, which will play a supporting role in the short term.
The continuous rise of crude oil and the upgrading of domestic chemical safety inspection will play a supporting role in the chemical products sector. Fermentation of external factors will help methanol prices continue to rise.
Fundamental conditions are gradually improving
Although crude oil prices continue to rise, the trend of methanol futures is weaker than other chemical products. From the current situation, the supply and demand pattern of methanol is slowly improving.
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Firstly, on the supply side, in April, the domestic methanol plant centralized into the spring inspection, and the market supply was tightening. At the same time, the United States, Southeast Asia and other places have also been overhauled, the global supply of methanol will decline. Secondly, the production profit of downstream methanol enterprises has been repaired in the near future, coupled with the arrival of the peak consumption season, enterprise procurement has shown a more obvious warming up. Due to the warming up of downstream consumption in formaldehyde production enterprises, the start-up load is likely to rise further, and the consumption of methanol will increase. Although the profit of DME production enterprises has declined sharply, the purchasing volume of methanol will remain stable under the effect of purchasing just in need because of the low stock of DME production enterprises. Acetic acid is affected by the maintenance of international acetic acid plant, the problem of oversupply has been alleviated. In this case, the price of acetic acid has risen slightly recently, and the purchasing of methanol by acetic acid enterprises is expected to increase. Finally, methanol port stocks began to fall at a high level. As of April 4, methanol stocks in domestic ports were around 959.3 million tons, down 25.1 million tons from March 28, down 2.55%.
Forecast for future market
In conclusion, the sustained rise in international crude oil prices has supported methanol prices. At the same time, with the arrival of spring inspection and downstream consumption peak season, methanol fundamentals have gradually improved, which will also provide support for methanol prices. Under the above two factors, methanol is expected to continue to rebound, and the operation of methanol is mainly to buy at bargain.
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