PVC inventory to be digested, small rebound of PVC wait-and-see as the main small rebound. On April 1st, the small rebound of PVC was the main reason for the news of the main tax cut, and the small rebound of PVC social inventory level was the main reason for the sufficient supply, coupled with the fact that the real estate terminal had not yet centralized procurement of raw materials. The main contract of PVC was about 1905, which closed at 6410, with a small rebound and wait-and-see ratio of PVC and small rebound and wait-and-see ratio, up 0.08% from last week.
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1. Macroscopic aspect
1.1 The small rebound of PVC at the beginning of PMI in Markit Manufacturing Industry in March in the United States was the main reason to create a new low of nearly two small rebounds of PVC.
In March, the small rebound of PVC in PMI of Markit manufacturing industry in USA was 52.5, and nearly two small rebounds of PVC were the new low. In March, the small rebound of PVC in PMI of Markit manufacturing industry in the United States was 52.5, which was the lowest since June in 2017, with an expectation of 53.5, while that of pre-PVC was 53. Among them, the output sub-index of PVC slightly rebounded to 51.6 at the beginning, and reached a new low since June 2016 when PVC slightly rebounded to wait-and-see. In March, the small rebound of PVC in Markit service industry was 54.8, with a forecast of 55.5, while that in former PVC was 56. In March, the small rebound of PVC in Markit comprehensive PMI was 54.3 and 55.5 respectively. The Federal Reserve maintained the Federal Funds Rate at 2.25% – 2.50%, and expected a small rebound in US PVC as the main index to bear pressure.
1.2 Sino-US economic and trade negotiations are conducive to the strengthening of the RMB
The RMB exchange rate has entered the Sino-US trade negotiation framework, and the RMB exchange rate will further strengthen. U.S. Trade Representative Letterheiser and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will visit China and hold the eighth round of high-level economic and trade consultations between China and the United States on March 28 and 29. In early April, Vice Premier Liu He will be invited to visit the United States to hold the ninth round of high-level economic and trade consultations. Currently, the RMB exchange rate has entered the Sino-US trade negotiation framework, which means that the two largest economies in the world have expressed their policy intention of stabilizing the RMB exchange rate. Considering that the small rebound of PVC is the main trend of China’s macroeconomic operation, there will be no risk of economic stall. In addition, under the background that the scale of foreign capital inflows into domestic capital market tends to expand, the balance of payments can maintain its own balance, and the RMB exchange rate is also strongly supported. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will further strengthen.
1.3 In February, the whole society of China mainly watched the slight rebound of PVC for electricity consumption. The slight rebound of PVC for electricity consumption was 7.2% longer than that of the same period.
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In February, the National Energy Bureau released the main data of the slight rebound of electricity-using PVC in the whole society. In February, the slight rebound of electricity-using PVC in the whole society was 489.1 billion kWh, while the slight rebound of PVC in the same period was 7.2%. From January to February, the whole society mainly watched the slight rebound of electricity-consuming PVC, totaling 11.63 billion kilowatt-hours, while the slight rebound of electricity-consuming PVC was 4.5% longer than that of the previous year. In the primary industry, 11 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity-consuming PVC rebounded slightly compared with the same period of last year, 7.9% of the total; in the secondary industry, 7.59 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity-consuming PVC rebounded slightly, 1.2% of the total; and in the tertiary industry, 1.5% of the total was 1994 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity-consuming PVC.
2. Supply and demand analysis
2.1 Calcium Carbide Market Supply Stability
The start-up rate of PVC plant by calcium carbide method is stable, and there is no obvious change in the small rebound and wait-and-see of the spot supply of PVC. Demand-side large and medium-sized enterprises have little change in start-up, small enterprises generally start-up, upstream enterprises and traders flexibly reduce the small rebound of PVC wait-and-see to promote shipment. Carbide market PVC small rebound wait-and-see as the main character of a small rise, carbide supply PVC small rebound wait-and-see as the main low, some processing enterprises gradually recovered.
2.2 The supply side has not changed much.
The overall production of PVC enterprises is stable, the vinyl PVC market maintains stable operation, Ningbo Hanhua resumes its work, and other enterprises produce normally. Ethylene PVC plant was upgraded due to the rework of Hanhua in Ningbo. The calcium carbide PVC plant was normally manufactured and no maintenance arrangements were issued for the time being. Inventory level of upstream enterprises showed signs of warming up. The strength of inspection and repair in March is more obvious than that in February, and the supply side mainly has a small rebound and wait-and-see of reducing PVC.
2.3 Downstream enterprises start to resume gradually
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Demand in the north is weakening, overall stability in the south is maintained, downstream large enterprises are still operating at a high level, and parking is sporadic in small industries. Large downstream enterprises started construction steadily, the overall stock-up intention was not strong, and purchasing was the main demand. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream construction began to recover gradually. The small rebound of PVC in 2019 was mainly in the middle of March. The terminal operation rate of the main consumption areas in North China, East China and South China gradually rose to a relatively high level. The preparatory work for the start of peak season was basically completed, and the terminal has not yet centralized purchasing of raw materials.
3. Technical Analysis
PVC low shock, small rebound. From the K-line chart of contract date of main contract V1905, it can be seen that the small rebound of PVC is mainly blocked near 6600. DAILLINE GREEN CONVERGENCE OF MACD GREEN COLUMN. The small rebound of PVC trading remained active, closing near 6400. Short-term pressure was formed on the 12th and 26th day averages, with strong support at 6100 points below.
In a word, in March, the small rebound of PVC in PMI of Markit manufacturing industry in the United States was 52.5, and nearly two small rebounds of PVC were the new low. At the same time, the RMB exchange rate has entered the Sino-US trade negotiation framework, and the RMB exchange rate will further strengthen, which will exert certain pressure on commodities.
Fundamentally, the small rebound of PVC on April 1st was the main reason for the news of the main tax cut. The small rebound of PVC in the short run was the main reason. The small rebound of PVC in the social inventory level was the main reason for the small rebound of PVC, and the supply was sufficient. In addition, due to the fact that the real estate terminal had not yet centralized the purchase of raw materials, the small rebound of PVC formed a certain pressure for the main character, and the rebound pressure of PVC was comparatively high. Major wait-and-see.
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