China’s GDP target fell, crude oil oscillated and fell

SITUATION: The SC1904 contract of Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center opened at 438 yuan/barrel, with a maximum of 443.6 yuan/barrel, a minimum of 434.1 yuan/barrel and a closing price of 434.5 yuan/barrel, down 4.8 yuan/barrel from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.09%. Volume fell back to 2519,000 hands, with an increase of 1466 to 45128 hands.

Macroscopic information: 1. On Tuesday (March 5), the Central Bank of China announced that the intermediate price of RMB against the US dollar was 6.6998, up 51 basis points from the previous trading day.

Industry chain information: 1. According to Reuters reports, OPEC sources said that OPEC and its allies may decide on a new production policy in June rather than at the Vienna Conference in April. OPEC + is expected to extend the production reduction plan at the June meeting, but it depends mainly on the extent of sanctions imposed by the United States on OPEC member states Iran and Venezuela. 2. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Nowak said on Monday that Russia will accelerate the pace of crude oil production reduction this month, and plans to reach OPEC+reduction share by the end of March or early April. 3. Libya National Petroleum Corporation said that the Shalala Oilfield will restart oil production of 30,000 barrels per day, and the force majeure of the oilfield is now lifted; it is reported that the normal production of the Shalala Oilfield is 315,000 barrels per day.

Spot price: Oman crude oil spot price of $65.3 per barrel on March 4, down 1.4 U.S. dollars per barrel from the previous day (converted to 437.8 yuan per barrel at the exchange rate of RMB on that day); Shengli crude oil spot price of $58.2 per barrel, down 1.7 U.S. dollars per barrel from the previous day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: The number of warehouse receipts designated by Shanghai International Energy Trading Center for delivery is 2.774 million barrels, which is unchanged from the previous trading day.

Summary of opinions: International crude oil futures prices show an oscillating rebound, Asian market growth consolidation, Brent crude oil futures prices to 65.4 U.S. dollars/barrel line, WTI crude oil futures prices to 56.4 U.S. dollars/barrel line, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices are in the range of 9 U.S. dollars/barrel, Shanghai crude oil 1904 contract prices closed down, water discount than Brent crude oil about 0.6 U.S. dollars/barrel, compared with 4 Oman crude oil spot discount. Water is about $0.5 per barrel. According to the news, China and the United States seem to be close to reaching an agreement. The tariffs imposed by the United States on at least $200 billion of Chinese goods are expected to be withdrawn. The trade negotiations are expected to boost the market with optimism. China announced its GDP growth target of 6%-6.5% in 2019, and worries about economic slowdown still weigh on the market atmosphere. Sources said that OPEC + is expected to extend the production reduction plan at the June meeting, but mainly depends on the degree of sanctions imposed by the United States on OPEC member countries Iran and Venezuela; Russian Energy Minister Nowak said that Russia plans to accelerate the pace of crude oil production reduction this month; Saudi Arabia plans to further reduce crude oil production in March to 9.8 million barrels per day; OPEC’s statement will firmly reduce production and the geographic situation will support the oil market. In the United States, repeated high production and demand concerns continue to exacerbate market volatility, focusing on API U.S. inventory report. Technically, the forward price of SC1904 contract declined, and the forward price continued to be subject to 10-day average pressure. The lower test was supported by the 40-60 day average area. The short-term Shanghai crude oil futures price showed a high oscillation trend. Operationally, we recommend 425-448 yuan/barrel interval trading.