China’s foreign trade has made a good start this year

Futures Daily reported on February 15: Data released by the General Administration of Customs on February 14 show that in January this year, China’s total value of import and export of goods trade was 2.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% over the same period last year.

“In January, China’s foreign trade imports and exports continued to maintain a steady and positive momentum, and achieved a good start.” A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce said this at a regular press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce on the same day.

Data show that in January, China’s exports increased by 13.9%, imports by 2.9%, and trade surplus by 27.116 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2 times. In dollar terms, the total value of China’s imports and exports in the same period was 395.98 billion US dollars, an increase of 4%. Among them, $217.57 billion in exports, an increase of 9.1%, $178.41 billion in imports, a decrease of 1.5%, and $39.16 billion in trade surplus, an increase of 1.1 times.

Analysts believe that the growth rate of China’s imports and exports in January is better than expected, especially the export growth has rebounded considerably, reversing the sharp decline of China’s imports and exports in December last year.

“First of all, it is influenced by the factors of the Spring Festival. Trade enterprises tend to increase exports and reduce imports before the Spring Festival, in order to save inventory costs during the Spring Festival. Because this year’s Spring Festival is earlier than last year’s, the Spring Festival effect is more reflected in January, making January’s export performance relatively better. Secondly, the low export base in the same period last year led to a marked rebound in export growth in January compared with December last year. Wang Jun, president of Founder Medium-term Futures Research Institute, told Futures Daily.

From the perspective of trade types, in January, China’s general trade imports and exports reached 1.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 13%, accounting for 60.9% of China’s total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the same period last year, showing a rapid growth and an increase in the proportion. The import and export of processing trade amounted to 680.7 billion yuan, down 0.9%, accounting for 24.9%, down 2.4 percentage points. In addition, China’s import and export of bonded logistics amounted to 279.73 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3%, accounting for 10.2% of China’s total foreign trade value.

From the perspective of major trading partners, China’s imports and exports to the major markets of the European Union, ASEAN and Japan have increased, and the growth rate of imports and exports along the “one belt and one way” countries is higher than the whole.

Specifically, in January, trade between China and Europe totaled 444 billion 840 million yuan, an increase of 17.6%, accounting for 16.3% of China’s total foreign trade; the total value of China’s trade with ASEAN was 356 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 7.8%, accounting for 13.1% of China’s total foreign trade; China’s total imports and exports of all countries along the belt and road increased by 11.5%, increasing by 2.8 percentage points nationwide, and accounting for 28.2% of China’s total foreign trade. The proportion increased by 0.7 percentage points.

Some experts said that, regardless of the type of trade or trading partners, it is not difficult to see that the overall stability of China’s foreign trade has not changed.

“In January, China’s exports to its major trading partners maintained growth, and the sharp rebound in export growth to the EU and ASEAN countries greatly boosted China’s export growth in that month.” Yide Futures macroeconomic analyst Shaolina said.

The data also show that in January, imports of crude oil, natural gas and other commodities increased, imports of iron ore and soybeans decreased, and the average price of commodity imports rose and fell mutually. Specifically, in the same month, China imported 91.26 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 9.1%; 42.6 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 5.1%; 33.5 million tons of coal, an increase of 19.5%; 7.38 million tons of soybean, a decrease of 13%; 9.81 million tons of natural gas, an increase of 26.8%; 33.8 million tons of refined oil, an increase of 17.5%; 3.15 million tons of plastics in primary shape, an increase of 7.4%; 1.18 million tons of steel, an increase of 480 tons of unwroughed copper and copper, an increase of 82.2%. %. In addition, the import of mechanical and electrical products was 519.63 billion yuan, down 1.6%.

Looking ahead to the future market of commodities, Shaolina believes that, on the whole, the long-term downward pressure of commodity prices in China still exists, “in the near future, more oscillating prices under the influence of policies, with limited upward space”.