2013 , domestic benzene market has experienced three down two liters of adjustment repair process. The first half of 2013 , the country experienced two consecutive benzene prices have fallen sharply , down to 19%. After continuous consumption of low-priced stocks began to rebound in the second half quotes to repair nearly three months in a row , dropping again in late September last year , but the first half had experienced deep whipsaw round , so the volume and price compared to under good conditions , last November to complete the bottoming consolidation , the market began to pick up, and continuous volume and price .
As of last December 28 , domestic benzene (mainly petroleum benzene ) mainstream price 9’550 yuan ( t price , the same below ) , the chain rose more than 4 %. With the turnover of the atmosphere positive , benzene market steadily warming, is expected to become the turning point for the better inter-face . Insiders believe that warming is the end of the year bodes well for the New Year , 2014 or benzene market will usher in a new atmosphere .
- Downstream demand after another startup, power prices higher. It is understood that in 2013 in the face of weak economic to run in the background, the largest varieties of benzene styrene demand to maintain a high level of capacity utilization (average operating rate
More than 75% ) , and is profitable , largely supported the benzene market is expected in the first quarter of 2014 is still expected to maintain a high demand for benzene . The aniline enterprises are affected by environmental events , 2013 consolidated domestic capacity utilization is always low, average less than 45 %.
Into 2014 , with the recovery downstream dyes , pharmaceuticals, pesticides and other industries , is expected to significantly improve the operating rate , increased purchases of benzene . According to statistics , phenol, cyclohexanone, adipic acid , caprolactam , maleic anhydride , nitro chlorobenzene and other products, there will be a 2014 annual production capacity gradually to improve the process to form a rigid demand for benzene . According to another major domestic export enterprises reflects benzene foreign imports in 2014 would not have significantly increased , and the market is always in high, it will also become one of the main factors supporting domestic benzene market to rise .
- Production of steady growth , resulting in a moderate market rebound . Reporters learned from the domestic benzene enterprises , since the beginning of November 2013 , domestic producers to keep inventory on a continuous downward trend , coupled with some of the hydrogenation of benzene during the Spring Festival enterprise down load operation , tight supply again. One of ports simultaneously by the petroleum benzene inventory of more than 130,000 tons in September , down from about 100,000 tons at the end of December , and can supply in circulation less than 3 million tons, which is the continuous price rise in recent major factor .
But prices will continue to rise in 2014 subject to certain annual suppress the role of steady growth , the possibility of a continuous sharp rise is unlikely. According to statistics, in 2013 domestic benzene ( including oil , benzene, benzene hydrogenation ) production has more than 10.2 million tons , growth of about 8%. Petroleum benzene companies which maintain an average operating rate of 74% , 52% of benzene hydrogenation . The 2014 production of petroleum benzene new device will be more than 230,000 tons of benzene hydrogenation plant capacity of around 1 million tons on the new . Petroleum benzene add a device in accordance with the operating rate of 80% , the original low-load operating system to enhance the utilization rate of 20% , 60% operating rate of new computing devices on the hydrogenation of benzene , benzene production in 2014 increased by nearly one million tons more than in 2013 , an increase of about 10% . Therefore, the new device from the 2014 production situation in the first quarter of benzene production capacity began to be realized , the domestic supply and demand situation will be eased, the market is expected to form a moderate warming trend .
- The macroeconomic environment continue to improve, support outlook stabilization. Internationally, the Fed unexpectedly announced near the end of 2013 will be $ 85 billion a month to reduce the size of bond purchases to $ 75 billion per month, which will push up U.S. interest rates , which make dollar-denominated assets more popular . If the U.S. economy continues to recover , then return to the U.S. market for short-term funds is expected to increase, then the dollar will be strong again , but also beneficial to the export market recovery.
Domestically, the economic fundamentals in the fourth quarter of last year to the good trend continues steady , and a series of favorable policies to support the effect gradually , the domestic macroeconomic environment is expected to continue to improve. But by the end demand , the domestic market will not bulk chemical products rapid warming . One of the important factors in the short term mild benzene market to pick up in the second quarter will be a cool finishing process , the overall trend is expected in 2014 than in 2013 is relatively flat , the macroeconomic environment continue to support the market is still good overall stabilization .
In addition, from benzene external disk market trend, the 2014 International benzene market -oriented economy is good, do not increase the yield , under the steady growth of demand on the basis of good , and the prices are expected to remain high. This is also the main source of power to support the domestic market of high steady .