Last week (Jan. 7 – Jan. 11), TRADERS’shipment awareness increased and the price of potassium chloride eased slightly. On January 14, China’s Wholesale Potassium Chloride Price Index (CKPI) was 2321.33 points, down 5.65 points, or 0.24%. It rose 263.39 points, or 12.80%. It fell 969.26 points, or 29.46%, compared with the base period.
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Supply Situation: In terms of domestic potassium, Salt Lake units are operating normally, and the start-up rate of small factories in Qinghai maintains a low level; the arrival price of 60% crystal powder of Qinghai Salt Lake benchmark products is 2420 yuan/ton, and the regional turnover price is about 2350-2400 yuan/ton. On the import of potassium, new sources of goods such as North China have arrived at the port one after another, and the port stock has increased to about 1.59 million tons; TRADERS’awareness of cash delivery has increased, and the mainstream quotation of 62% Russian-Belgian potassium in the port has been loosened, falling to about 2550-2580 yuan/ton. As for potassium frontier trade, the market has less supply and general stock. The quotation of 62% Russian-white potassium has stabilized, and maintained at about 2250-2300 yuan/ton.
Demand: Fall fertilizer use in agriculture has ended, spring tillage fertilizer has not yet opened, the demand for potassium fertilizer is cold. Affected by haze and other weather, the start-up of enterprises continued to be limited. The overall start-up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 36.07% from the previous week, which was 6.07 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The downstream demand was weak, the shipment of compound fertilizer enterprises was not smooth, and the demand for raw materials was light.
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International market: International potassium chloride prices were basically stable last week. In South America and Southeast Asia, the actual demand for potassium fertilizer is less, and the price is temporarily stable. The off-shore price of potassium chloride in Canada and Russia increased by 3 US dollars/ton at the high end and 3 US dollars/ton at the low end, which were 263-308 US dollars/ton and 244-316 US dollars/ton respectively; the off-shore price of potassium chloride in Jordan increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 273-293 US dollars/ton at the low end; the off-shore price of potassium chloride in Israel dropped by 1 US dollar/ton at the high end and 1 US dollar/ton at the low end, which was 273-317 US dollars/ton in Southeast Asia and Brazil; Prices remained stable, ranging from $300 to $320 per ton and $350 to $355 per ton, respectively.
Table 6: International Potassium Chloride Price Change Table
product region Range of rise and fall(US Dollars/Tons) Spot price (US dollar/ton)
2019-1-10 2019-1-3
potassium chloride (FOB bulk) Canada _3-3 263-308 260-305
Russian Federation 4-2 244-316 240-314
Jordan _1-1 273-293 272-294
Israel _1-1 273-317 274-318
CFR Southeast Asia 0-0 300-320 300-320
CFR Brazil 0-0 350-355 350-355
Source of data: collated according to relevant materials
Domestic market: The domestic market price of potassium chloride is basically stable in the near future. According to the monitoring data of the association, the wholesale price of domestic potassium chloride in all provinces dropped 45.8 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, while the prices of other provinces remained stable; the wholesale price of imported potassium chloride in all provinces increased 20 yuan/ton in Shanghai compared with the previous week, and the price of Hubei fell 6.4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, while the prices of other provinces remained stable.
Table 7: Price Change Table of Potassium Chloride in China
Varieties
Province
2019-1-10
(yuan/ton)
2018-1-3
(yuan/ton)
Up and down
(yuan/ton)
Ring ratio
Wholesale price of domestic potassium chloride
Hubei
2,416.7
2,462.5
- 45.8
- 1.9%
Wholesale price of imported potassium chloride
Shanghai
2,230.0
2,210.0
20
0.9%
Hubei
2,693.6
2,700.0
- 6.4
- 0.2%
Data Source: China Agricultural Circulation Association
In the domestic market, port potassium arrived one after another, and large traders increased their shipments. The start-up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises remained low, the demand for potassium fertilizer was weak, and the price of potassium chloride was slightly loosened. With the increase of potash TRADERS’shipment speed and the increase of spot market circulation, the demand of downstream compound fertilizer is weak, the enterprise’s inventory is increasing, and the demand of potash fertilizer is difficult to improve in the short term. In the international market, the demand of Southeast Asia and other regions is delayed, and the international price is temporarily stable. In summary, it is expected that the domestic price of potassium chloride will be slightly loosened in the short term, focusing on the arrival of potassium in ports and domestic demand.
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