As a global trade commodity, styrene has attracted much attention in its distribution pattern and supply and demand trends. China is not only the world’s largest producer of styrene, but also the world’s largest consumer. How will the future supply and demand pattern be interpreted?
From the data on the apparent consumption of styrene in China in recent years, the output, apparent consumption and self-sufficiency rate are all oscillating, while the import volume is declining year by year. Specifically, in terms of output, the total domestic production exceeded 5 million tons for the first time in 2013, and exceeded 6 million tons to 6.55 million tons in 2017, while apparent consumption surged from 8.1 million tons in 2013, 2017. Increased to 9.7 million tons, entering 2018, still continues to increase trend, the apparent consumption in the first half increased to 4.85 million tons.
In recent years, styrene has been affected by the increase in production and the decline in imports, and the self-sufficiency rate has also increased significantly. As of 2017, the self-sufficiency rate has increased from less than 60% in the previous years to 67.62%. In the first half of 2018, the self-sufficiency rate has made a new breakthrough and further increased to 71.3%.
It is worth mentioning that in recent years, the decline in import volume is obvious. According to the import data of the Customs Statistics Bureau, the import volume of styrene in the past few years was basically 3.7 million tons/ton. In 2016, it fell back to 3.5 million tons/year. Below the level, it has fallen to 3.2 million tons/year in 2017. In 2018, affected by anti-dumping and arbitrage changes in various regions, the import volume continued to shrink. The total import volume from January to July was 1.56 million tons, down 115,000 tons year-on-year. From this trend, the annual import volume fell in 2018. Breaking 3 million tons will be a high probability event.
Since 2018, after the Qingdao Bay Chemical 500,000 tons/year styrene plant was officially put into commercial operation after being ignited in mid-January, the 260,000 tons/year installation of Anhui Wuyuan was also stably supplied after the product was released around August 10. Maintain full load operation. Before the deadline, China’s styrene production capacity has reached 9.37 million tons / year. According to the latest news, CITIC Guoan Ruihua currently has 200,000 tons of styrene co-production of 80,000 tons/year propylene oxide plant, Hengli petrochemical 700,000 tons/year styrene plant and the largest domestic Zhejiang Petrochemical refining and chemical integration project. The 10,000-ton/year styrene plant is scheduled to be put into operation before the end of 2018. The annual production capacity of China’s styrene exceeds 11 million tons. It is just around the corner. Although there are still some uncertainties in the actual production progress, the national production and self-sufficiency rate will soon be on the rise. At a new level, China’s styrene supply and demand gap will gradually disappear, and the dependence on imported sources will also drop significantly.
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