The impact of Sino-US trade war on the rare earth industry has both advantages and disadvantages

The new round of US tax collection list covers almost rare earth and related products.

Since 2018, the Sino-US trade war has continued to heat up. Following the June 15th, the Office of the US Trade Representative announced a list of 1,102 sanctions worth $50 billion, and on July 6, began to impose a 25% import tariff on the first batch of Chinese products worth $34 billion. Later, on July 10, local time, the US Trade Representative Office announced a new round of taxation list, which plans to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods worth 200 billion US dollars. The sanctions are expected to officially land on August 30.

In the newly published catalogue of the 3290-F8 document tax list, almost all rare earth oxides, compounds, metals and rare earth permanent magnets, as well as rare earth application end products are covered.

Over the years, the United States has developed a high degree of dependence on Chinese rare earths.

American rare earth consumption is highly dependent on China. According to USGS statistics, in 2017, 78% of the total imports of rare earth products from the United States came from China, and the remaining 22% came from Estonia (6%), Japan (4%), France (4%) and others (8%). ), but the primary raw materials for rare earth products imported from Japan, France and other places are also from China.

According to China Customs data, in 2017, China’s exports of rare earth smelting and separating products to the United States amounted to 14,300 tons, accounting for 27.7% of China’s total exports of rare earth smelting and separating products. Among them, 238.5 tons of rare earth metals are exported to the United States, accounting for 4.3% of China’s total exports of rare earth metals, accounting for 46% of the total imports of rare earth metals in the United States. Imported varieties are mainly based on strontium; 8809 tons of rare earth oxides are exported to the United States, accounting for China. 29.6% of the total exports of rare earth oxides accounted for 90% of the total imports of rare earth oxides in the United States, and the imported varieties were mainly cerium oxide; 5,988 tons of rare earth compounds were exported to the United States, accounting for 31.8% of the total exports of rare earth compounds in China. The variety is mainly strontium carbonate. In 2017, the United States imported a total of 10,200 tons of antimony, antimony oxide and barium carbonate from China, accounting for 71.5% of the total imports of its smelting and separating products. In terms of the amount, in 2017, China’s exports of rare earth smelting and separating products to the United States amounted to US$68.372 million, accounting for 16.4% of the total export value of rare earth smelting and separating products in China. In addition, in 2017, China exported 3,358.85 tons of rare earth permanent magnet materials to the United States, accounting for 11.2% of China’s total exports of rare earth permanent magnet materials; the export value was nearly 150 million US dollars, accounting for 10.2% of China’s total exports of rare earth permanent magnet materials.

According to China’s export data on rare earth products in the United States in 2017, the United States has high dependence on rare earth products in China: unmixed rare earth carbonate, barium carbonate, barium carbonate, other compounds of barium, other compounds of barium, unmixed chlorine Rare earth, cerium oxide and cerium oxide.

From the perspective of the rare earth consumption structure in the United States, the catalysts mainly used for automobile exhaust gas purification and petroleum catalytic cracking are the largest downstream applications of rare earths, accounting for 55% of the total consumption of rare earths, and the rare earth elements used in the catalyst are mainly Light rare earth elements such as strontium and barium, which are also consistent with its imported varieties from China.

Sino-US trade war has both advantages and disadvantages for the rare earth industry

Overall, China’s exports of rare earth smelting and separating products to the United States account for less than 30% of China’s total exports of rare earth smelting and separation products, and the export value is less than 20%, but for the United States, if traced back to the source, its rare earth Imports are almost entirely from China. According to the report of the “Fragile US Defense Industry Foundation” issued by the US Department of Defense, the United States has an “amazing” dependence on China’s key materials. China is the only source of imports of rare earths and energetic materials in the United States. Therefore, the United States imposes a 10% tariff on China’s rare earth export products, which has little impact on China’s rare earth industry. However, it will increase the cost of raw materials in the US manufacturing industry, and it will not protect its manufacturing industry. It is contrary to its original intention of adding tariffs.

Due to the dependence of the United States on the formation of rare earth products in China over the years, it is difficult to find a corresponding number of substitutes in China or outside China in the short term. Even if the current Mountain Pass mine has been trial-produced, if it wants to restore the rare earth smelting and separating industry chain, It is not a good day’s work, and the supply of rare earth producers outside China is also difficult to provide the corresponding amount of rare earth products.