In the first half of 2018, China’s xylene imports increased significantly compared with the same period of last year. According to customs data, China’s xylene imports from January to June totaled about 308,800 tons, an increase of 73,600 tons compared with the same period of last year, an increase of about 29.79%. Although the increase of more than 70,000 tons is not large, the increase is still considerable. According to the performance of each month, as shown in the following figure, the import volume in January was the most, and it fell in 2-4 months, but it was still higher than the same period of last year, and the import volume rebounded from May to June.
In the case of increasing domestic aromatics production capacity, xylene imports are still significantly higher than last year, reflecting the optimism of merchants on the Chinese market demand. Judging from the difference between the domestic and foreign prices of xylene in East China, the first half of the first half of the year and the majority of the time in April were in the same state. In most of the other time, the external price difference was in an upside down state, which was not conducive to xylene import, but many reasons made domestic merchants There is still a certain tendency to import xylene.
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Based on the view of the spring market, the import of xylene in the January-February period was more positive, but at the same time, the inventory level of the East China Port was high, and the demand did not follow up in time, which caused the market to decline significantly, and the import supply failed to profit. At the same time, it also affected the enthusiasm of merchants in March and April. However, the inventory level of Huadong Port was seriously reduced in May, and the internal and external disk arbitrage space was large. The news that Tenglong Aromatics PX plant is expected to restart in the middle of the year made the importing of xylene enthusiasm again, which led to an increase in xylene import from May to June.
In the second half of the year, it is expected that the import of xylene will be reduced again in July-August. The primary influencing factor is the sharp decline in the RMB caused by the Sino-US trade war. The unstable exchange rate makes merchants import more cautious. Although the domestic xylene market trend still has a lot of expectations in August, the external disk price is 300-400 yuan/ton higher than the domestic price. The further increase of domestic price may not exceed this range. In addition, from July to August, it will be subject to Japanese solar iron work. The equipment is still in the process of overhaul, and the supply of xylene in Asia is relatively tight. Therefore, the import of xylene from July to August is expected to be at a low level during the year.
In the second half to the fourth quarter of the third quarter, xylene imports are expected to continue to rise, mainly due to the overhaul of PX devices in South Korea and Taiwan. Among them, Formosa Plastics plans to overhaul the No. 2 plant in Maitun from mid-August to August in August. Day, the No. 2 plant has an annual output of 573,000 tons of PX, 427,000 tons of pure benzene and 160,000 tons of OX. Korea Lotte plans to overhaul two PX plants in October for one month, of which the No. 1 plant has a PX rated capacity of 250,000 tons. / Year, the capacity of the No. 2 plant is 525,000 tons / year. More PX equipment overhaul will make the supply of Asian xylene more abundant in the second half of the third quarter and the fourth quarter. In addition, the Japanese solar iron aromatics unit is expected to restart in September, and the plant will produce 700,000 tons of isomerized xylene per year. The supply of toluene will increase. Therefore, the relationship between the internal and external discs is expected to reverse gradually from August to October, which will help domestic xylene imports rebound.
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