Plastic consumption season comes, the downstream plastic sheeting rate continues to increase, usually this trend will continue until the end of October or early November, at this stage, plastic demand will be significantly improved. The second quarter of the device centralized maintenance makes petrochemical stocks quickly digested, has recently been maintained at a low level, then the peak season, petrochemical stocks is difficult to accumulate, and even further to the possibility of inventory, so low-shelf status of short-term difficult to change, this plastic price will be Produce strong support.
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However, plastic production has returned to high, lucrative support device high load operation, is expected to plastic production in the third quarter will be at a high level. In terms of imports, there is also a large increase in the amount of imports due to the substantial increase in trade profits. Once the import flows are concentrated, the domestic stocks will accumulate rapidly and the price will be downward.
The season has come, and demand has improved
Usually in May is the most light production of plastic film production period, the device operating rate for the lowest level during the year, since June, July start operating rate bottomed out, and began to continue to improve until the beginning of November to reach the highest level in the year. As the downstream companies need to purchase raw materials in advance, therefore, plastic demand in September gradually into the consumption season, and continued to October, while the corresponding demand for plastic in May is the most weak period. Although the seasonal seasonal law of packaging film is not significant, but the three or four quarters is gradually increasing the process.
Second-quarter intensive installation equipment, PE device operating rate dropped to a minimum of about 70%, therefore, despite the consumption in the off-season, but the supply of shrinkage makes the petrochemical stocks fell rapidly. In late July, with the pre-maintenance device restart, the supply gradually increased, while the market demand is still weak, petrochemical stocks accumulated slightly, but still in the low, and significantly lower than the level of the same period last year, which is supporting the sharp rise in plastic main reason. Then, into the peak season, demand improvement will help petrochemical stocks remain at a low level. This year by the impact of environmental protection, season demand started relatively slow, but the production of plastic sheeting has just need the nature of raw materials demand will gradually increase.
Lucrative or lead to supply pressure
At present, the overall crude oil is still in the low stage of oscillation, oil olefins cost is low, and since June, plastic prices rose sharply, oil production of considerable profits, August average profit of 3,000 yuan / ton.
Coal production costs of olefins, although the coal prices rose significantly increased, but the strong polyolefin makes the production of coal olefins is still rich, August average profit of 3600 yuan / ton or more.
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PE enterprises in the high profits to stimulate the production of full power, the recent PE overall operating rate remained at 90% or more, part of the original planned maintenance of the device also delayed parking is expected in the third quarter PE production increased by 7% in the second quarter, LLDPE was 11%. PE maintenance in the fourth quarter less, and Shenhua Ning coal production, so PE and LLDPE production will remain high.
Import, first of all, according to seasonal rules, usually the third quarter imports will be due to the consumption season significantly higher than the ring. Second, since June LLDPE imports began to profit, and the recent profit has been maintained at a high level, so high profits will inevitably lead to increased imports, which is very similar to the situation in the fourth quarter of last year, if a large influx of imported goods, plastic prices Will be under pressure, but the current hurricane affected by the United States exports to China a limited number.
Operational strategy
Short-term plastic is still the demand for season support, the price adjustment can be considered after the end of the bargain to do more, but after the peak season, the supply pressure, when the plastic or there will be a larger decline in the market,
In addition, from the seasonal pattern of demand, 1801 is the peak season contract, and 1805 is the off-season contract, while the short-term low inventory, and there is tired after the peak season is expected, so more than 1801 empty 1805 contract sets can participate.
Need to pay attention to the risk factors: First, do short-term risk, such as the demand for fake season, imports soared. Second, the risk of short season after the risk, such as the accident occurred in the installation of the accident, the output is less than expected.
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