An oil-rich province in northern Iraq will hold a referendum on the independence of the Kurds in the latter part of the month, with regard to the escalation of tensions that will have the region’s crude oil, fearing the possible outbreak of regional conflicts and oil wars.
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Since the so-called Islamic countries (IS) in some areas of Iraq in the summer of 2014, the Kurdish armed forces have taken full control of the province of Kirkuk and other disputed areas. In addition, the northern part of Iraq is not only the main source of Iraqi oil, but also part of Kurdistan – the Kurdish unofficial, but hometown for hundreds of years.
Kurds have been seeking to build their own country. After the US military overturned the Iraqi government led by Saddam Hussein in 2003, the Kurds believed that Kurdish founding had been close to their control.
Over the past two years, both the Iraqi government forces and the Kurdish armed forces have expelled the ISIS from most of the country by fighting, but the long-standing relationship between the Baghdad and the Erbil capital of the Kurdish capital The dispute has intensified.
Baghdad strongly opposed the Kurdish independent referendum to be held on September 25, and Iraqi Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said the vote was “unconstitutional and illegal.”
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On Tuesday, the central government of Iraq approved the Prime Minister “to take all means” to safeguard national unity. While Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani opposed the idea that would endanger national identity and vowed to implement a referendum.
The decision to hold a referendum could become a long-standing contradiction between Baghdad and Albiile on Kurdish oil exports and income distribution.
“The relationship between Baghdad and the Kurdish region will be the biggest challenge for oil, and the Kurds will use the upcoming referendum as a bargaining chip,” said Renad Mansour, a Iraqi expert at ChathamHouse, a London think tank, told CNBC.
Iraq is the second largest oil producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), according to the country’s oil minister, Jabar Al-Luaibi, said the country’s oil production is 432 million barrels per day.
“Kurdish is far from being able to export oil independently, which requires very large and expensive public facilities, and in the current oil price environment, the Kurdish independent economy,” said TorbjornSoltvedt, principal analyst at VeriskMaplecroft, responsible for the Middle East and North Africa issue. The foundation is very weak. ”
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