With the increasing consumption of natural gas in China, natural gas prices are entering the downstream channel.
According to “Securities Daily” reporter learned that the earliest in mid-September, non-residents with natural gas station prices or will be reduced 0.08 yuan / cubic meter.
Analysts said the recent re-emphasis on several departments to increase the “coal to gas” efforts, Beijing and Tianjin and other regions will significantly increase the gas consumption, natural gas supply this winter for a lot of pressure, or the emergence of part of the local time period Supply gap, when the price may rise higher, which is not conducive to the growth of natural gas consumption.
At the same time, the deepening of oil and gas reform is also advancing the pricing of natural gas market, reducing the price of natural gas to stimulate gas demand.
Natural gas prices are expected to cut in advance
“Securities Daily” reporter learned from a number of social institutions, in September this year – October, non-residents with natural gas station prices or will be reduced by 0.08 yuan / cubic meter.
Prior to the national natural gas station price adjustment for November 20, 2015, the highest non-residential gas station price per thousand cubic meters down 700 yuan; at the same time the non-resident gas from the highest gate price management to the reference door Station price management. After lowering the price level of the highest gate station as the benchmark gate station price, both supply and demand can be based on the price of the benchmark gate station, in the floating 20%, floating within the scope of the consultation to determine the specific gate station price.
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Relevant information analyst Guo Jian told the “Securities Daily” reporter said that the non-resident natural gas station prices slightly lower, or with the VAT tax rate and long-term low oil prices related. July 1, 2017, the natural gas value-added tax rate dropped from 13% to 11%, in the case of the same sales price, pre-tax price increase over the previous period, while the VAT tax rate decreased slightly.
State Construction believes that overall, China’s natural gas price level has been to a certain extent, can reflect the international energy price level, although the domestic natural gas price adjustment corresponding lag, but overall, the domestic natural gas pricing mechanism is to rationalize the improvement.
At the end of May, the long-awaited oil and gas reform program was introduced and pointed out that the upstream market will continue to liberalize access to strengthen the market competition of oil and gas exploration and mining to promote the downstream gas supply costs decline.
At the same time, the Development and Reform Commission will be natural gas pipeline transportation and downstream gas price rate of return were 8%, 7% or less.
Zhejiang Securities analyst Chen Xiaoyu said that this series of initiatives will rationalize the domestic natural gas pricing mechanism, from the upper and lower reaches of the three links to release natural gas prices, continue to promote market-oriented pricing, thus promoting the end consumer price down, especially non-residents gas prices , And ultimately pull the downstream market demand for gas.
This winter or part of the local supply gap
In fact, the increasing demand for natural gas is also one of the core objectives of this price adjustment.
Some market participants believe that this price adjustment in addition to consider the above factors, the Government should also take into account the existence of natural gas this winter, “gas shortage” may. 2016 winter heating end, based on the prevailing market supply and demand, in the policy allowed within the scope of the upper reaches of the general door prices were 10% -15% of the floating, the larger pressure downstream. And last winter prices unilaterally rose, the summer did not appear price reduction, or is to promote this price one of the reasons for the price reduction.
According to relevant information, the current domestic gas storage gas into the gas injection stage, part of the city gas company gas supply has been slightly limited.
“In the first half of the natural gas consumption growth rate of 15% in the context of the winter demand peak or the emergence of part of the time part of the supply gap in the local area.Therefore, the price of natural gas stations in winter is expected to continue to rise in different degrees. Said.
It is necessary to mention that, in recent days, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the National Development and Reform Commission and other 10 departments, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding local government jointly issued “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding areas 2017 – 2018 autumn and winter air pollution comprehensive management action” (Hereinafter referred to as “the” Scheme “).
“Program” in the main task, to speed up the integrated management of coal pollution in the proposed, fully completed with electricity to coal, to coal on behalf of the coal task. 2017 before the end of October, “2 +26″ city to complete the coal on behalf of the coal to coal on behalf of more than 3 million. Beijing, Tianjin, Langfang, Baoding 2017 before the end of October to complete the “coal area” construction tasks, scattered coal thoroughly “cleared.” (Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Langfang, Baoding, Hengshui, Taiyuan, Jinan, Zhengzhou, Kaifeng, Hebi, Xinxiang City), to increase the intensity of the work, 2017 to be included in the central financial support in the northern region of winter clean heating 12 pilot cities Before the end of October made substantial progress.
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This means that the demand for natural gas will be further increased.
From the Zhejiang Securities data show that the short term, “coal to gas” policy frequently, to promote the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding area with a substantial increase in gas consumption, is expected to add 100 billion cubic meters of gas demand. In the long run, the “13th Five-Year Plan” has clearly defined the main energy status of natural gas. Natural gas accounts for 5.9% of the energy consumption from the “12th Five-Year Plan” to 10% of the “13th Five-Year Plan”, and the estimated consumption will reach 4000 Billion cubic meters.
Analyst Chen Yunying told the “Securities Daily” reporter said that if the door station price is not adjusted, in accordance with this year’s “coal to gas” efforts, the winter for more pressure, the price may rise higher, which is the growth of natural gas consumption Unfavorable, so this time the price cut may also take into account this point.
She also pointed out that it is foreseeable that this winter the natural gas supply situation will be more arduous, consumption growth will be very rapid. If non-residents with natural gas prices to achieve a certain range of down, will further protect the downstream use of natural gas confidence, the upstream will face a decline in profits. The price adjustment is not large, the whole is also taking into account the feelings of the upstream and downstream.
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