Cobalt prices rise, supply and demand situation has not changed

Recently the cobalt city and then welcome. According to the business data show that August 1 cobalt commodity index was 143.82, compared with the previous day rose 0.11 points, compared with the highest point in the cycle 145.08 points (2017-07-06) fell 0.87%, compared with July 10, 2016 The lowest point 69.84 points rose 105.93%. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far).

Cobalt material characteristics of outstanding, vertical and horizontal seven areas, the industry value chain to accelerate the development of the whole, the industry concentration steadily improved, cobalt rare when the benefits of multiple links: cobalt material physical and chemical properties, widely used in seven areas , Involving materials, chemicals, batteries and other aspects. Which lithium cobalt oxide and ternary material in the form of lithium battery as a cathode material, in the field of intelligent 3C and new energy vehicles a lot of applications. Coke prices in the current range, the cumulative increase in 2017 reached 65%. Relying on smart electronics, the demand for new energy vehicles heavy volume, the relevant cobalt raw materials in the downstream market applications will gradually increase, driving the entire upstream raw material production and development of enterprise scale expansion, forming a good cycle to strengthen the model. Downstream seven areas continue to rise in demand will also boost the demand for raw materials.

The supply side – the slowdown in the future growth is limited, the shortage cycle to promote the rise in cobalt prices: According to the cobalt two sources of mine + refining estimates, on the one hand the main mine lower yield, giants reluctant to sell behavior continued, cobalt ore production recovery rate is limited; On the one hand refining the cobalt industry continued to slump leading to the global production capacity of refined cobalt is limited, the two effects superimposed, the supply of short-term can not achieve sustained and stable output. We estimate the supply of cobalt, which 2017-2018 is expected to cobalt supply of 99089 tons and 102489 tons, an increase of 5.54% and 3.43%. Overall, 2017-2018 global cobalt supply and refined cobalt production growth rate will not be much improvement, heavy volume is not obvious, slow down the recovery rate, the supply cycle is still in the future, the basis of the future is more stable, logical Can stand.

Demand side – the seven downstream areas Qi force, support demand continued to grow: demand growth mainly from the demand for new energy vehicles brought ternary material with a substantial increase in cobalt content, high temperature alloy demand growth, carbide demand slowed. At the same time, industrial areas, 3C and energy storage capacity of cobalt growth will also maintain steady growth. In the global trend of irreversible development of new energy vehicles, ternary battery applications to enhance the proportion of the general trend of the future power battery will become the main increase in demand for cobalt. We expect the global cobalt demand in 2017 to 2019 will grow at a rate of 7% -9%. In 2017, the demand in 2018 will reach 123,400 tons and 132,700 tons respectively.

The supply of slow heavy volume superposition of the rapid growth of demand, the shortage of space still exists, the future growth of cobalt industry chain still in the overall view, cobalt resources supply and demand is not balanced, the future shortfall gap will expand, the possibility of rising cobalt prices will increase. It is expected that the shortage of space will be further widened in 2017-2018, facing a gap of 24,300 tons and 30,200 tons of raw materials. The growth rate of refined cobalt supply in the world is growing at a slower rate than cobalt consumption, mainly due to the strong growth of rechargeable batteries and aerospace industries. Cobalt industry chain into the inventory stage, which basically get support to regain the uplink power.

Overall, the first half of 2017 small metal plate market is good, although the product differentiation, but generally fell little, or significant increase. Which is the most eye-catching performance of cobalt, is a small metal plate deserved to star varieties. In the short-term fundamentals can not be changed under the premise of the market is expected to stabilize stability, some varieties such as indium, magnesium, antimony, bismuth, will be weak and stable, small metal index fluctuation range at 750-850 points.