International oil prices since the end of June fell below $ 45 / barrel low after the two waves rebounded, but the rebound is not, twice in the 50 US dollars / barrel position suffered strong pressure down, indicating that the market confidence in the second half of the oil market is still insufficient , Mainly on the supply of potential growth is still more worried.
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In fact, OPEC (OPEC) since the implementation of the implementation of the policy since the implementation is better. However, the second quarter OPEC grams of production has a slight increase in the trend. OPEC latest monthly data show that the overall output in June than in May increased by 40 million barrels / day to 3261 million barrels / day, more than the organization limited to 32.5 million barrels / day on the line level, the main increase from unrestricted production constraints Libya and Nigeria, as well as Saudi Arabia, Angola and Iraq. Therefore, the market has reason to worry about whether the OPEC in the second half to maintain the first half of the higher production rate.
US crude oil production also contributed to OPEC production efforts to reduce the results greatly reduced. US crude oil production has increased by nearly 12% to 940 million barrels per day in 2016. However, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) latest monthly report cut the US crude oil production in 2018. The agency predicted that 2018 US crude oil production 990 million barrels / day, an increase of 57 million barrels / day; and the agency in June forecast 2018 crude oil production will exceed 10 million barrels, an increase of 67 million barrels / day. Baker Hughes data show that the United States Permian basin nearly two months since the rapid growth rate of rigs, indicating that the current level of oil prices, the US shale oil production is expected to be too optimistic. Because the Permian is the United States shale oil 7 major areas in the lowest breakeven point, the lowest cost of mining quality oil and gas resources area.
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In addition, the trend of declining global crude oil inventories is also being established. OPEC monthly data show that OECD commercial inventories have continued to decline this year, despite the slow decline in May stocks fell 12.9 million barrels to 3 billion barrels. At the same time, US commercial crude oil inventories have fallen to 500 million barrels, although it is also slow down. From the forecasts of OPEC and EIA, the overall demand for crude oil in 2018 is slightly larger than supply growth, although OPEC production is largely offset by higher US production, but supply and demand will be more balanced, the decline in inventory or will lead Oil prices.
Overall, the US crude oil production will continue to suppress the long-term increase in oil prices, if the OPEC in the first quarter of 2018 after the withdrawal agreement to increase production, the oil market will be volatile. However, the short term, as long as OPEC can continue to implement a better cut production agreement, the second half of the supply and demand situation will continue to improve. International oil prices are expected to still have the opportunity to rise in the second half, although the rise of space will not be too much. Therefore, at the current level of oil prices, can still continue to maintain long thinking.
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