Nickel fell again in April this year, and London nickel fell more than Shanghai nickel, for two consecutive months, among the worst performance in non-ferrous metals, nickel ore supply pressure has risen, in which the Philippines strict environmental policy is difficult Effective implementation and the Indonesian nickel ore export ban part of the release, while tightening global monetary policy, and foreign geopolitical risk rising, but also increase the risk of nickel prices down. Looking ahead May, the above negative factors continue to pressure nickel prices, even if there is technical rebound, highly limited and difficult to continue, it is recommended to maintain every high-altitude ideas.
First, the nickel market down risk
On the details of the macroeconomic fundamentals, you can visit the Shanghai Copper monthly report, not to repeat here, the following nickel market supply and demand fundamentals of the downside risk and upward momentum analysis. Among them, the nickel market, the main downside risk from the middle of refined nickel and nickel pig iron supply is still relatively adequate, while the downstream demand for stainless steel to improve the intensity is limited enough to promote the demand for nickel.
1, LME nickel stocks are still high
As of April 26, LME refined nickel stocks reported 379,338 tons, an increase of 1824 tons at the end of March, the sixth increase in the past seven months, the cumulative increase of 17544 tons, but LME nickel June 4, 2015 record High 470376 tons cut 91038 tons. Excluding other negative factors, the continued increase in nickel-nickel inventories shows that the nickel market is climbing, and the spot premium of Nickel and nickel is still high at $ 50 / tonne, which means that the supply of excess nickel in the nickel market has increased. The price of nickel is suppressed. In view of the current high inventory, this year the nickel market still need to further promote the process of inventory. The reason why the high LME inventory is mainly due to a few years before the market surplus accumulation of invisible inventory due.
2, China’s nickel iron imports and production both higher
Indonesia’s nickel-iron project has been successfully put into operation in recent years, not only a large number of high-nickel-iron transport to China, but also to improve the domestic iron and steel industry, Business to Indonesia to invest and build the intention and speed. Therefore, one of the main reasons for the weak nickel prices is the market concerns about Indonesia’s new nickel-iron production capacity, from the nickel ore imports from Indonesia, we can see that this concern gradually transferred to the domestic market, the performance of nickel imports from 2015 The amount of sustained rise, partially offset the domestic nickel iron production and nickel ore imports fell. China’s nickel-iron imports in January-March this year, 335367 tons, up 14.8 tons or 75.64%, of which imports from Indonesia’s nickel iron up to 231792 tons, an increase of 106.04%, accounting for 69.1% of total imports, to further consolidate our country The status of the largest source of imports of nickel iron. At the same time, from January to March imports from New Caledonia nickel iron for the 36306 tons, an increase of 46.58%. January-March nickel-iron exports can be negligible. Production, March nickel iron (metal tons) to 36604.55 tons, the chain slightly reduced 1605 tons, an increase of 5376 tons. At the same time, January-March nickel iron (metal tons) for the 110,317 tons, an increase of 29554 tons or 37%, indicating that the domestic iron and steel enterprises to actively increase production.
3, Russian nickel imports continued to decline
In 2016, the net imports of unwrought nickel and alloys totaled 35,400,800 tons, an increase of 9,1205 tons or 22.18% over the same period of last year. The import volume increased by 67,305 tons and the export volume decreased by 23899 tons and the import and export increased rising. But in January-March refined refined nickel and alloy imports of 43,382 tons, up 60.05% year on year, of which refined nickel and alloy imports in March 14,371 tons, down 66.75% year on year, hit the second in March 2015 to the next level The January-March imports of nickel from Russia for 19901 tons, down 73.02% year on year (accounting for 46%), Russia’s refined nickel supply to a certain extent offset the increase in China’s nickel pig iron production to suppress. At the same time on the nickel stocks also increased by nine months. As of April 21 this year, nickel stocks on the period of 83895 tons, slightly increased 414 tons, an increase of 3766 tons, but close to the low level in nearly a year, compared with September 14, 2016 record highs 112078 tons to reduce 28,183 tons, indicating that the domestic refined nickel supply pressure control.
Second, up momentum
1, the global nickel market to maintain supply shortages
According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) data show that in January-February 2017 global nickel market supply shortage of 20,000 tons, 2016 global nickel market supply shortage of 62,000 tons, an annual surplus of 7.35 million tons in 2015. The total refined nickel production in January-February was 272,100 tons, the demand was 292,200 tons, and the global nickel output of the mine was 311,000 tons, up by 0.4 million tons year on year. 2016 nickel ore production was 1,852,700 tons, compared with 2015 to reduce 271,000 tons. But the International Nickel Research Organization published data is relatively pessimistic, the data show that in January and February this year, the global nickel market supply shortage of 5500 tons, nickel city production of 332,300 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons; consumption of 337,800 tons, 37,000 tons. Although the caliber of the two statistics are different, but have conveyed the nickel market in a supply shortage. The organization also expects global nickel demand to increase to 2.11 million tonnes in 2017, up from 2.03 million tonnes in 2016 and nickel production of 2.07 million tonnes, up from 1.99 million tonnes in 2016, resulting in 40,000 tonnes of nickel Supply and demand gap, lower than last December forecast of 66,000 tons, due to nickel production is expected to increase.
2, supply – domestic port nickel ore inventories record record low
In the context of the decline in imports of nickel ore, the domestic nickel enterprises can only continue to digest the port of nickel ore inventories, resulting in nickel ore stocks continued to decline, repeated record low level. As of April 21, China’s coastal ports of nickel ore inventories fell to 8.51 million tons, compared with the end of March to reduce 600,000 tons, for the sixth consecutive month of decline, down 468 million tons, another record low. January-April domestic port nickel ore inventories fell by 5.26 million tons or 38%, the current in February 2014 hit a record high of 26.13 million tons to reduce 17.62 million tons or 67%.
Third, long and short gradually transformed
1, supply – Philippine nickel ore supply remains uncertain
China’s nickel reserves of 300 million tons, accounting for only 4.05% of the global nickel reserves, but mainly sulfide-type nickel ore, red clay mineral resources is relatively lacking. Each year China needs to import large amounts of laterite nickel ore to develop stainless steel industry. China’s imports of nickel from the Philippines fell 10.95% year-on-year in 2016, but the change was lower than the 20% decline in the Philippine government’s estimate earlier this year. From January to March this year, China’s total imports of nickel ore and concentrate of about 302.6 million tons, down 11.01%, of which imported from the Philippines, about 1.916 million tons of nickel ore (accounting for down to 76.54%), down 20.23% Expanded. In the same period, imports of nickel ore from Australia for 19,159 tons, down 68.53%, accounting for only 0.63%, still difficult to become climate, but 1-3 month imports from New Caledonia nickel ore up to 210,705 tons, By 476.36%, accounting for up to 6.96%. Since March the Philippine Minister of Environmental Protection Lopez’s appointment has not been passed, the Philippine nickel mine strict environmental policy is difficult to implement, in May Congress will re-appointment review. At the same time, with the Philippine nickel ore producing areas Su Ligao end of the annual rainy season (from October each year to the end of the following year for the rainy season), the future of nickel ore imports or an increase. In addition, Indonesia to lift part of the nickel ore export ban will also bring the impact of medium-term nickel prices. January imports of Indonesia from January to March this year, 298466 tons of nickel ore, the import value hit a high point in November 2014, partly to make up for the reduction of the Philippines nickel ore gap, due to the January 12 Indonesia announced the partial cancellation of nickel ore export ban The Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that under the new regulations, Indonesia’s mining or annual export of 5.2 million tons of nickel ore. Philippine environmental policy can be further clear in May, will be the impact of nickel ore supply is expected to be the key, and the current situation, with the end of the rainy season and the New Caledonia nickel ore follow-up force, nickel ore Supply pressure has risen, as the existence of negative factors.
2, demand – downstream stainless steel production growth continued
China is the world’s largest native nickel consumer, consumption in 2014 accounted for 50% of the global proportion, followed by the United States. From the domestic terminal demand, the main consumption of nickel concentrated in the stainless steel industry (consumption ratio of up to 66%). While 60% of China’s stainless steel used in the real estate industry. China’s stainless steel crude steel production reached 2493.78 million tons, an increase of up to 15.65%, another record high, imports of stainless steel is expected to 770,000 tons, an increase of 44,000 tons; exports 3.88 million tons, an increase of 464,000 tons; The amount of 18.853 million tons, an increase of 2.5606 million tons, an increase of 15.66%, much higher than the market expected 3-5%. The market is expected to 2017 stainless steel new production of 27 million -28 million tons, which does not contain Indonesia Qingshan Iron and Steel production capacity of 2 million tons, the overall output growth rate or up to 10% or more.
2, demand – March steel industry PMI fell slightly
In March this year, China’s steel industry PMI chain fell slightly 0.8% to 50.6% in February chain rose to 51.4%, the highest in nearly 10 months. In the sub-index, the new order index and the new export order index fell 4.7% and 7.1% to 50.6% and 41.6% respectively. In the same period, Hebei Iron and Steel industry PMI also fell to 48.4% in the past six months, the fifth in the 50-wing line, failed to continue strong performance in February. Although more than 3-4 months to limit the property market to limit the purchase policy, but the policy control there is time lag, and there is no significant cooling, terminal demand in May or is expected to continue to improve. Domestic stainless steel stocks, as of April 10, Foshan, the total stock of stainless steel 142500 tons, the chain decreased by 3510 tons, the current level is still relatively low in history, record low for the year on February 10 hit 88228 tons; Wuxi area in the same period the total stock of stainless steel continued to increase 5359 tons to 250545 tons, a record high.
3, and the real estate control policy upgrade
60% of China’s stainless steel used in the real estate industry. March home sentiment index rose to 101.13, an increase of 0.37 points, for more than a year to stabilize at 100 on the brink of the line above its record low in July 2015 hit 92.43, showing the real estate market confidence The rise of the corresponding real estate development enterprises intends to expand the housing market investment. January-March national real estate development investment of 1929.2 billion yuan, up 9.1% year on year growth rate, growth rate than in January to 0.2%. January-March housing new construction area of 315.6 million square meters, an increase of 11.6%, 1.2% growth rate. At the same time, from January to March the national real estate sales area of 29.035 million square meters, an increase of 19.5%, the growth rate of 5.6% decline from January to December. The data show that with the purchase of more than limited control policies to upgrade, fully implement the central “house is used to live,
Rather than speculation “policy, sales growth in real estate has slowed. Looking in May, due to the real estate industry policy and credit policy is still tight, and monetary policy easing has narrowed, the real estate market is still facing adjustment risk, the overall price Growth rate will be down.At the same time, subject to the high real estate market inventory, to inventory is also the housing market theme, while the national property market differentiation situation will continue in March 70 large and medium cities between the housing price differentiation is still continuing.
Four, May nickel price outlook
The second quarter of this year, the global economic downturn is still facing heavy concerns, especially the two rounds of France to bring political instability, and China to strengthen the housing market regulation to bring market fears rise. Monetary policy, the world’s major economies, the gradual rise in inflation, the global loose monetary policy has tightened, the focus should be vigilant in the Federal Reserve in May – June to raise interest rates expected speculation, the Chinese central bank [microblogging] is constantly raised Reverse repo rate and MLF also raise interest rates. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure caused by the uncertainty of the Trump policy. The second quarter of non-ferrous metals will continue to be based on their different fundamentals and differentiation trend, the medium-term nickel both the lack of support for the reduction of copper supply, and no aluminum supply side of the expected reform and cost expectations, its performance or continue to weaker Other base metals.
As for the fundamentals of nickel itself, the supply of raw nickel ore in the upper reaches has improved, especially as the export of nickel ore in the Philippines has increased, and some of the nickel ore has resumed its own production. At the same time, due to the further increase in the import and production of nickel pig iron Increased pressure, especially in the last period and London nickel stocks are at a high level in history, making tight nickel ore to the middle of the process of slow, nickel prices and thus far less performance than other basic metals, May attention continues to decline The nickel price can force companies to increase production efforts. Downstream demand, the steel industry PMI to fall again, resulting in uncertainty in the demand for stainless steel, not enough to make stainless steel production rose sharply, while exports will be foreign anti-dumping countervailing investigation efforts to increase, which will partially limit the nickel price rebound height.
I believe that the nickel price in May is still difficult to see a strong upward momentum, it is difficult to have a decent rise, short factors still prevail, the so-called weak weak, strong Hengqiang, Shanghai nickel can still be effective as one of the short hedge varieties , The operation still need to maintain the oscillation bearish ideas. Shanghai nickel 1709 contract in May running range of 85000-75000 yuan / ton.