After hovering at the bottom for nearly two weeks, the domestic acrylonitrile market price showed a fluctuating rebound trend towards the end of the month. As of March 31st, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 300-400 yuan/ton compared to the mid low point (8600-8700). The price for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 300-400 yuan/ton compared to the mid low point (8600-8700).

Supply phase reduction
Some facilities in East China and Shandong have reduced or undergone maintenance. According to statistics, as of March 27th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 82.69%, a decrease of 6.49% from the mid month high of 89.18%. Therefore, there will be a temporary reduction in supply in the short term.
Industry inventory has slightly decreased
After the initial low price inventory reduction, the industry’s inventory has slightly decreased. According to statistics, as of March 27th, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was about 51000 tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the mid month high. Although the inventory is still high, there is no pressure.
Downstream demand has rebounded slightly
The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile has rebounded, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate is 72.8%, an increase of 1.3% from last week, and raw materials are purchased on demand.
Market forecast: The domestic acrylonitrile market is expected to fluctuate and rise, with industry capacity utilization gradually decreasing. There are also many maintenance plans in the second quarter, and new production capacity has not yet been released, resulting in a temporary reduction in supply in the short term. Moreover, after the initial low price inventory reduction, there is currently no pressure on the industry’s inventory, which provides conditions for market growth. However, considering that the overall supply is still abundant, the short-term market growth ma

y still be limited.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC spot market continued its downward trend from the previous month in March. As of March 31st, the average price of PVC in China was 4930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.44% for the whole month.

2、 Market analysis
This month, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend, with a slight narrowing of the decline. Prices slightly turned red in the latter half of the month, but the rebound was limited and the overall decline has not changed.
Specifically, on the one hand, due to the weak performance of upstream crude oil and ethylene, coupled with the suppression of the futures market, the spot PVC market generally experienced a bearish trend. On the other hand, there is a certain pressure on supply and demand, and the spot market has not yet escaped the downward channel. There is basically no rebound trend after a decline in the market during the month, and the operating rate continues to be high. Production continues to increase, and there is a slight surplus of supply. At present, there is no signal of bottoming out and stabilizing in the market. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of March 31st, the mainstream price range of PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4880-5000 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide has stopped falling since March, and the price range has been adjusted this month. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price increase of calcium carbide since March has been zero. Overall, calcium carbide lacks positive guidance and has limited support. With the weak performance of downstream PVC market, the price of calcium carbide may not stabilize and improve in the near future.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply and demand of PVC will continue to remain weak in the short term, mainly due to the sustained high operating rates of manufacturers and the high inventory levels of both enterprises and the market. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to rebound, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in April 2025, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.