According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 5, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7050 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 7133 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17%.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

In the first week of March, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, showed a weak operating trend. Some n-butanol factories in Shandong region have narrowly reduced the price of n-butanol by 50-100 yuan/ton. On March 5th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong region was around 7000-7200 yuan/ton.

 

Analysis of Market Factors

 

On the demand side: Currently, inquiries for n-butanol in the market are cautious, downstream users are restocking at low prices, and purchasing intentions are poor. The overall demand transmission is loose, providing limited support for n-butanol.

 

On the supply side: Currently, due to cautious demand, some n-butanol factories are facing certain supply pressure on the overall supply side to ensure low inventory levels, and the market support provided by the supply side is limited.

 

Market analysis in the future

 

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol is light, the overall market trading volume is average, the supply and demand transmission is loose, and the effective support of the market is weak. Business Society’s n-butanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly experience narrow adjustments, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

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1、 Price stability

 

Melamine

Specific price: As of March 4th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6275.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12% compared to the beginning of this month (6267.50 yuan/ton). This slight increase indicates that market prices have not fluctuated significantly and the overall trend is stable.

 

Historical comparison: Over a longer period of time, although the price of melamine has fluctuated, there has not been a significant increase or decrease in recent times.

 

2、 Market supply-demand balance

 

Stable production capacity: Due to equipment aging, malfunctions, or maintenance needs, some melamine production units may still undergo planned maintenance this week. These maintenance activities are usually notified in advance and minimize the impact on production as much as possible. The implementation of the maintenance plan will have an impact on the supply and demand relationship of the melamine market. If maintenance leads to a decrease in supply while demand remains stable or increases, it may have a certain impact on market prices.

 

Stable downstream demand: The demand for melamine in downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings remains stable without significant growth or decline. This stable downstream demand has to some extent supported the smooth operation of the melamine market.

 

3、 Inventory and raw material impact

 

Inventory adjustment: Some melamine production enterprises may adjust their inventory to cope with fluctuations in raw material prices. This inventory adjustment mechanism has to some extent stabilized market prices and reduced the direct impact of raw material price fluctuations on the market.

 

Raw material prices: Although there may still be some volatility in the future raw material urea market, the current impact of raw material prices on the melamine market is relatively limited. This is due to the combined effect of market supply and demand balance and inventory adjustment mechanism. As of March 4th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1876.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.85% compared to the beginning of this month (1892.00 yuan/ton).

 

4、 Market prospects

 

Market size growth: According to market analysis reports, the melamine market size is expected to continue to grow. For example, the global melamine market is expected to reach approximately $7.5 billion by 2025. This growth trend provides broad development space for the melamine market.

 

Uncertainty factor: Although the melamine market remained stable this week, there is still some uncertainty in the future market trend. Fluctuations in raw material prices, changes in downstream demand, and policy adjustments may all have an impact on market prices. Therefore, enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes, and develop reasonable business strategies to cope with potential market risks.

 

In summary, the melamine market was mainly stable this week, thanks to the combined effects of multiple factors such as market supply and demand balance, stable production capacity, inventory regulation, and relatively stable raw material prices. However, there is still some uncertainty in the future market, and companies need to respond flexibly.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic MTBE market is weakly consolidated. From February 1st to 28th, MTBE prices fell from 5975 yuan/ton to 5875 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.67% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 11.32%.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

After the holiday, the domestic MTBE market trend is weak, and the demand for gasoline terminals is sluggish. Industry players only purchase a small amount of related gasoline components on demand, and MTBE manufacturers’ shipments are cold, with prices mainly falling and consolidating.

 

At the end of the month, the domestic MTBE market showed some upward trend due to the export consolidation of some large manufacturers, resulting in relatively tight domestic resource supply. At the same time, transactions improved, end-users moderately purchased, and manufacturers’ shipments improved, actively pushing up offers.

 

As the end of the month approaches, the MTBE market experiences sporadic narrow fluctuations. Due to the overall weakness of the gasoline market, businesses tend to purchase relevant gasoline components on demand, and the market is unlikely to have significant upward potential. The MTBE market is mainly characterized by small-scale fluctuations.

 

On the cost side, international crude oil prices showed an overall downward trend in February, and the average price also decreased compared to January. In the first half of the year, commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories in the United States increased significantly, coupled with market concerns about the risk of trade disputes, and Trump’s reaffirmation of increasing US crude oil production, leading to a decline in international oil prices. In the middle of the month, market concerns about the potential drag on demand from US tariffs have weakened, while US sanctions on some oil producing countries continue. Market concerns about potential supply risks have increased, coupled with the possibility of OPEC+delaying production increases, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The acceleration of the Russia Ukraine peace talks in the latter half of the year has led to a reduction in geopolitical risks, and the United States may impose tariffs on multiple countries and organizations, including the European Union, causing a decline in international oil prices.

 

On the demand side, international crude oil futures have fluctuated downward, and the refined oil market has weakened downward. Among them, gasoline prices have fallen significantly due to weak demand, while diesel prices have been supported by gradually increasing demand. Most refineries in the region have adjusted their sales strategies based on their own shipment and inventory situation, and downstream businesses have purchased according to demand while consuming inventory. The market trading atmosphere is flat. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

 

On the supply side, it is expected that there may be an increase in resource supply in the near future. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

 

As of the close on February 27th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4.78/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $728.46-730.46/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $6.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $868.24-868.74/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $6.23/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $778.73-779.08/ton (219.88-219.98 cents/gallon).

 

In the future, the gasoline market is expected to remain stable with a narrow range of weakness. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term MTBE market will experience narrow fluctuations between small areas, making it difficult for prices to make significant adjustments.

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In February, the domestic acrylonitrile market price surged and fell back

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

In the second week after the Spring Festival, the domestic acrylonitrile market ended its nearly 40 day unilateral rapid upward trend, with prices peaking at a high level of 12000 yuan/ton and gradually beginning to decline. This round of price increase reached 2400 yuan/ton, an increase of 25%, and the price peak this time also reached the highest level since January 2022. As the main positive factors that stimulated this round of price increases have been completely digested, the tight supply situation has been eased, and coupled with insufficient downstream consumption follow-up after the holiday, the acrylonitrile market has started a sustained downward trend.

 

High profits stimulate production enthusiasm and significantly increase supply

 

At the same time as the current surge in acrylonitrile prices, there has been no significant change in upstream raw material costs, and due to the weakening of propylene prices, the theoretical production cost of acrylonitrile has decreased by 200-300 yuan/ton compared to early January. Due to the significant increase in acrylonitrile prices, its production profit has rapidly expanded to over 2000 yuan/ton, forming a significant contrast with the same period in previous years, as shown in the following figure.

 

Stimulated by considerable production profits, the supply of acrylonitrile is gradually showing signs of recovery and growth. At present, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has reached around 90%, an increase of about 15% compared to before the Spring Festival, and the supply of acrylonitrile has significantly increased.

 

Downstream industries resist the stagnation of spot buying of raw materials

 

While the supply of acrylonitrile is gradually recovering, overall downstream consumption has shown a weak trend after the Spring Festival, especially in the small and medium-sized downstream sectors where resumption of work has been slower than in previous years. On the one hand, there is insufficient follow-up of terminal consumption, and on the other hand, after the high price of acrylonitrile, the main downstream industries such as acrylic fiber and acrylamide are facing losses, which affects their operating pace, especially the acrylic fiber industry, whose operating load has dropped to less than 50% after the holiday. During the Spring Festival, due to weakened demand from downstream industries, sales of acrylonitrile products were not smooth, and only the demand from contracted customers remained stable. Under the bearish sentiment, traders actively shipped goods, and some traders lowered their sales prices to seize market share, leading to a rapid decline in spot market prices.

 

In addition, the current acrylonitrile market still uses contract settlement as the main pricing model, and suppliers are actively increasing their volume this month due to high expectations of a month on month increase in settlement in February. But currently, the price difference between spot and contract is gradually widening, which may to some extent affect the execution of local contracts and force manufacturers to further lower their quotes.

 

In the future, the supply and demand pressure in the raw material propylene market is still acceptable, and production enterprises are selling at stable prices. The overall market mentality is relatively cautious, and it is expected that propylene prices will continue to operate at a low level in the short term, which will provide certain support for the acrylonitrile market. On the supply side, there is an expectation of new equipment being put into operation next month, so the supply pressure has increased. In terms of demand, with the gradual recovery of downstream industries, the demand for acrylonitrile is expected to rebound. However, due to environmental policies and other factors that will still have a certain impact on downstream industries, demand growth may be limited. Therefore, there is still room for decline in the spot market.

 

Overall, the supply and demand relationship in the acrylonitrile market has changed, and in the short term, the supply is expected to increase. The industry is facing a prominent oversupply situation, and with the gradual increase in inventory, downward pressure on the market still exists.

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According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of polyester filament has shown a fluctuating and slightly rising trend this month, but the overall trend is relatively stable. As we enter the end of the month, some manufacturers mainly offer discounts for shipments. On February 28th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7300-7400 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8450-8600 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7600-7800 yuan/ton.

 

In terms of cost, international crude oil prices have fluctuated (such as the average price of WTI crude oil in February being about $75/barrel), PTA processing fees remain at a low level of 300-350 yuan/ton, and the cost side has weak support for polyester filament. The center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices has shifted downwards, coupled with a slowdown in demand growth, further weakening cost support.

 

In terms of demand, the operating rate of the polyester filament industry increased in February, and the previous shutdown reduction devices were gradually restarted. However, the recovery rate of downstream weaving enterprises was slow (the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines was about 67%), and the mismatch between supply and demand led to inventory accumulation. After the Spring Festival, the downstream replenishment demand was lower than expected, and the market mainly focused on essential procurement. Some polyester filament production enterprises adjust their production strategies based on market demand and raw material prices. Some enterprises try to increase their quotations, but most focus on shipping. At the end of the month, the profit margin for some specifications of products was moderately reduced, and the proportion of low-priced source transactions increased.

 

In terms of inventory, the average production and sales of polyester is 40%, and the overall inventory is concentrated in 9-19 days; In terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 9-20 days, FDY inventory is around 7-19 days, and DTY inventory is around 8-20 days.

 

Overall, currently, the prices of polyester filament in most polyester factories remain largely unchanged, and there is a high probability of short-term weak adjustment. Next, as the traditional “golden three silver four” consumption peak season approaches, if downstream textile and clothing orders significantly recover, coupled with export recovery (Southeast Asian demand growth), prices may rebound temporarily. Business Society believes that the decline in the polyester filament market is limited.

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