In January 2025, the market price of acrylonitrile will significantly increase. The price surged sharply in the first week of the month, and there are currently few market quotes, only sporadic merchants offering high prices. The manufacturer has tightened spot sales. The rapid increase in prices this time is a rare occurrence in recent years, which has led some market participants to believe that the market situation has returned to the past.

There are several reasons for the price increase this time. Supply is tight, and a acrylonitrile production line has been shut down for maintenance due to a malfunction, resulting in an overall operating rate of 50%. The market supply has decreased, and prices in Shandong have increased one after another. In terms of the East China market, the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical has been delayed, and Sinopec East China has had to purchase spot acrylonitrile to fill the gap, thereby reducing market inventory.

Northbound goods are moving southward, and acrylonitrile is supplemented by the northern market in the eastern and southern markets, resulting in a corresponding increase in prices in the relatively low Shandong market. As a result, both Haijiang and Korur in Shandong have reduced their spot supply, leading to price increases. At the same time, some manufacturers have adjusted their pre-sale pricing systems, improved price flexibility, and paved the way for gradual price increases.

In addition, transportation delays in overseas markets and suppliers in neighboring regions have reduced the supply of imported goods, making it difficult to meet downstream demand in the domestic market. In addition, the delayed restart of ZRCC company has led to an increase in market expectations.

In terms of demand, some December equipment maintenance manufacturers restarted in January, and the sharp rise in raw material prices has put acrylic fiber manufacturers in a difficult situation, facing the contradiction between losses and replenishing inventory. In addition, with the shutdown of downstream yarn mills, the demand for acrylic fiber is approaching zero. In 2025, the government announced the continuation of the subsidy program for car and home appliances trade in, which will stimulate the production willingness of ABS market manufacturers and increase their enthusiasm for stocking up.

Overall, the price increase this time is driven by various supply and demand factors, but it is still uncertain whether its upward trend can continue. The increase in capacity utilization driven by profit recovery may limit further price increases.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market in January was mainly consolidated, with some brand products experiencing narrow price reductions. As of January 31st, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7558.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.16% compared to the price level at the beginning of January.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

Due to the strengthening of the US dollar at the end of December last year and the contraction of consumption, oil prices weakened in early January. Entering 2025, concerns about crude oil supply have risen due to the extension of the OPEC+production reduction agreement until the end of the first quarter and the obstruction of some ship exports. In addition, the recent low temperature weather in Europe and America has boosted demand, and under various stimuli, international crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen. Overall, the upstream support of PP is strengthening. At the beginning of the month, the price of propylene increased due to the increase in midstream inventory and high external prices. However, after the price rose to a high level, trading cooled down, resulting in a significant decline in propylene in late January. The overall consolidation of propane has been weak throughout the month. Although it received positive news from crude oil in the second half of the month, transmission still needs time, and the market is still in a weak consolidation trend. Overall, the PP raw material market fluctuated before the Spring Festival in January, and the cost value at the end of the month remained positive guidance.

Supply side:

Domestic PP enterprises have resumed work and production, resulting in an increase in pre holiday load levels. During the month, the load of enterprises such as Daxie Petrochemical, Zhonghan Petrochemical, and Qilu Petrochemical has gradually returned. Overall, the industry’s overall load has increased by about 5% to 83%. The domestic weekly average production is over 730000 tons, and the PP shipment volume is flat. At the same time, newly put into operation devices are being produced one after another, and the market supply is abundant. Overall, the supply side provides moderate support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

Before the holiday, the demand for PP tends to be weak and rigid. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice decreased, and the consumption level of plastic weaving also declined. The stocking intensity of terminal enterprises is average, and their willingness to continue purchasing before the holiday is low. Their operations tend to be short-term and buy as you go. As companies gradually enter the holiday season, the workload decreases. In addition, with the trend of year-end fund withdrawal in the market, overall, the demand side has shown weak performance.

Future forecast

The domestic PP market price consolidation was weak before the Spring Festival in January. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is still acceptable. The industry supply has increased. According to consumer feedback, during the Spring Festival period, businesses gradually withdrew from the market and there was a lack of purchasing power in the market. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain relatively stable in early February.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 24th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.52% from the reference average price of 1798 yuan/ton on January 1st.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the domestic urea market price first fell and then rose. In the first half of this month, domestic urea prices fell weakly. The supply of urea in the market is relatively loose, and the market inventory has increased. Downstream demand is weak, and downstream consumers tend to be cautious and cautious. The market trading is light, with many low-priced transactions. In mid to late this month, the domestic urea market prices fluctuated and rose. The demand for pre holiday market replenishment has increased, market transaction volume has increased, and enterprise quotations have been raised.

market conditions

As of January 24th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1640-1685 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1750 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1670 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1770 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

On the supply side, the urea market has had loose supply this month. Partial regions have resumed production, resulting in an increase in daily urea production in China. On the demand side, in the first half of this month, due to the continuous decline in prices and cautious downstream procurement, there was not much market trading and a light trading atmosphere. In the second half of this month, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased and demand increased.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market trend has been rising recently. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking demand remains high, coupled with the recent rise in urea futures prices. Under favorable factors, it is expected that the domestic urea market prices will remain stable with a moderate upward trend in the short term.