The butadiene rubber market in December showed an upward trend in the early stage, but fell back from its peak at the end of the month. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 13720 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.54% from 13380 yuan/ton at the beginning of December, and the high point during the cycle was 13920 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted upwards; Shunding rubber production has increased, and supply pressure is expected to increase; Downstream tire production has steadily increased slightly, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber., As of December 31st, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 13650-13850 yuan/ton.

Since December, the price of butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted upward. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of butadiene was 10800 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.05% from 9725 yuan/ton at the beginning of December.

In December, the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased to around 7.7%, and the supply pressure of butadiene rubber will slightly increase in the later period.

Demand side: Since December, downstream tire production has remained stable with a slight increase, and demand is supported by the strong demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of December 31st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises has slightly increased to about 6.20%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber remains strong; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, and the pressure on the supply side has increased; The current downstream tire production is stable with slight fluctuations, and overall, the market for Shunding rubber is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China has risen this month (12.1-12.30), with an average market price of 239800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 244910 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 2.13%.

At the beginning of December, tin prices showed a fluctuating upward trend, and began to decline in mid December, stabilizing and oscillating towards the end of the month. Macroscopically, the uncertainty will increase next year, and there is currently no clear guidance on the trend of tin prices.

At the mining end, Myanmar’s imports of tin ore have not yet recovered this month, and domestic mines have not significantly increased production, resulting in a low supply of tin ore.

On the refining end, although there has been no significant increase in the mining end, it has been affected by the replenishment of recycled tin, resulting in a high operating rate of tin ingots throughout the year and a historically high production of refined tin. With the recent recovery of Indonesian exports and a significant increase in domestic imports, the supply of refined tin has increased significantly.

On the demand side, in the short term, due to the downward consolidation of prices, downstream consumption performance slightly exceeded expectations, and overall demand growth has been maintained. The semiconductor industry is in an upward cycle, which supports demand. The demand for photovoltaics continues to weaken. Pay attention to the impact of changes in foreign tariff policies on tin demand.

Overall, the trend of tin prices will depend on the combined effect of multiple factors. On the one hand, with the recovery of the global economy and the development of emerging fields, the demand for tin is expected to continue to increase. On the other hand, the production capacity of tin will continue to increase, and the uncertainty on the supply side may have an impact on tin prices. It is expected that the tin price will show a weak and fluctuating trend, showing a slight fatigue, and the upward driving force is not obvious.