According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market in December was mainly sorted out, and the price changes of most brand products were relatively narrow. As of December 31st, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7646.67 yuan/ton, which has increased or decreased by 0.33% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Price trend

 

In terms of raw materials:

 

In terms of international crude oil, the supply risk has increased due to the geopolitical situation in Syria. At the same time, the positive impact of the OPEC+production reduction plan delay is still present, coupled with the expectation of increased demand in Asia, international oil prices fluctuated and rose in the first half of December. At the end of the month, the US dollar strengthened and consumption contracted, which loosened the upstream support for PP in the far end. In terms of propylene, the domestic supply in North China was initially tight and then eased, and the favorable supply weakened, causing prices to rise first and then fall. Propane follows the trend of crude oil and runs steadily, while PDH remains stable due to its influence. Overall, the PP raw material market in December showed mixed ups and downs, and the cost side support was still strong.

 

Supply side:

 

In December, there was a mutual occurrence of maintenance and production in domestic PP enterprises, and the overall load level showed a slow upward trend. Jincheng Petrochemical, Dalian Hengli and other enterprises have newly put into operation facilities, but some of them have stopped again after being put into operation. At the end of the month, maintenance tasks for enterprises such as Zhongyue Haitian Petrochemical have gradually returned. Overall, the industry’s overall load has decreased from 68% in the first half of the month to around 78%. The domestic PP shipment volume has increased, and the average weekly production at the end of the month has rebounded to around 720000 tons. Although some newly put into operation facilities are unstable, the supply is still abundant. Overall, the supply side provides average support for PP spot prices.

 

In terms of demand:

 

The demand side of PP in December is biased towards rigid demand. Due to seasonal factors, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice remained stable with a slight decrease during the first ten days. The consumption level of plastic weaving has also declined narrowly, and the willingness to hold positions has cooled down; As the end of the year approaches, the decline in enterprise construction and stocking up are intertwined. The slow release of some pre holiday replenishment demand has to some extent boosted consumption. Overall, the demand side tends to have weak fluctuations in most aspects.

 

Future forecast

 

The domestic PP market prices remained stable in December. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is still acceptable. The supply within the range is relatively high. According to consumer feedback, businesses are cautious about future terminal consumption and tend to focus on restocking for essential needs. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain stagnant.

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The butadiene rubber market in December showed an upward trend in the early stage, but fell back from its peak at the end of the month. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 13720 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.54% from 13380 yuan/ton at the beginning of December, and the high point during the cycle was 13920 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted upwards; Shunding rubber production has increased, and supply pressure is expected to increase; Downstream tire production has steadily increased slightly, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber., As of December 31st, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 13650-13850 yuan/ton.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Since December, the price of butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted upward. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of butadiene was 10800 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.05% from 9725 yuan/ton at the beginning of December.

 

In December, the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased to around 7.7%, and the supply pressure of butadiene rubber will slightly increase in the later period.

 

Demand side: Since December, downstream tire production has remained stable with a slight increase, and demand is supported by the strong demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of December 31st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises has slightly increased to about 6.20%.

 

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber remains strong; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, and the pressure on the supply side has increased; The current downstream tire production is stable with slight fluctuations, and overall, the market for Shunding rubber is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

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According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China has risen this month (12.1-12.30), with an average market price of 239800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 244910 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 2.13%.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

At the beginning of December, tin prices showed a fluctuating upward trend, and began to decline in mid December, stabilizing and oscillating towards the end of the month. Macroscopically, the uncertainty will increase next year, and there is currently no clear guidance on the trend of tin prices.

 

At the mining end, Myanmar’s imports of tin ore have not yet recovered this month, and domestic mines have not significantly increased production, resulting in a low supply of tin ore.

 

On the refining end, although there has been no significant increase in the mining end, it has been affected by the replenishment of recycled tin, resulting in a high operating rate of tin ingots throughout the year and a historically high production of refined tin. With the recent recovery of Indonesian exports and a significant increase in domestic imports, the supply of refined tin has increased significantly.

 

On the demand side, in the short term, due to the downward consolidation of prices, downstream consumption performance slightly exceeded expectations, and overall demand growth has been maintained. The semiconductor industry is in an upward cycle, which supports demand. The demand for photovoltaics continues to weaken. Pay attention to the impact of changes in foreign tariff policies on tin demand.

 

Overall, the trend of tin prices will depend on the combined effect of multiple factors. On the one hand, with the recovery of the global economy and the development of emerging fields, the demand for tin is expected to continue to increase. On the other hand, the production capacity of tin will continue to increase, and the uncertainty on the supply side may have an impact on tin prices. It is expected that the tin price will show a weak and fluctuating trend, showing a slight fatigue, and the upward driving force is not obvious.

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