According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market continued to operate steadily in early November, with an average price of 2775 yuan/ton, unchanged from the same period in October.

Market situation: The decline in raw material prices has weakened support for formic acid, and downstream industries continue to make essential purchases. The formic acid market is mainly stable.

Upstream methanol, the domestic methanol market has recently surged and fallen, with no practical support for downstream demand, and market sentiment is cold. It is expected that the reduction in import volume in the later stage and the expected restrictions on the use of natural gas at home and abroad will further provide support for the methanol market, leading to a strong and volatile trend in its prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there are favorable factors for upstream methanol, which may provide certain support for the formic acid market. Specific market changes still need to be monitored.

Market summary: The phenomenon of supply differentiation between the north and south regions still exists during the week, and the supply in the east China region is still tight. With the support of cost, the domestic acrylonitrile market is fluctuating upwards.

On the supply side: During the week, a 130000 ton production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 1 # acrylonitrile plant was recently shut down for maintenance. Currently, the remaining two lines are operating, and the overall load has dropped to less than 50%. The capacity utilization rate in the East China region has decreased, and the supply is tight. The northern market is basically operating normally, and the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry has reached 73.42%, an increase of 0.02% compared to the same period last week. The total output of the factory during the week was 67900 tons, and the inventory of acrylonitrile enterprises was 49400 tons. Currently, there is no inventory pressure in the industry.

In terms of cost: This week, the price of propylene in Shandong’s market fluctuated at a high level, with the mainstream closing reference being 6870-7000 yuan/ton. At present, the inventory of propylene enterprises is mostly at a low level. With the rise of propylene prices to a high level, the downstream sentiment of gradually increasing prices has weakened, which may support or weaken the price trend.

In terms of demand, the utilization rate of downstream ABS production capacity has increased to 68.82%, an increase of 7.32% compared to the same period last week at 61.5%, indicating an increase in demand for acrylonitrile.

Market expectation: Currently, the supply differentiation between the North and South regions continues, and the domestic acrylonitrile market is expected to remain strong. The supply in the East China region is still tight, and the current industry inventory is not under pressure. Main manufacturers will continue to raise prices. However, with abundant supply in the north and overall supply-demand balance in the country, there are also obstacles to continued market growth.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke rose in October. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 1478.50 yuan/ton on October 31 and 1428.50 yuan/ton on October 1, with a monthly increase of 3.50%.

Cost wise: International oil prices fluctuated in October, with a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has had an impact, which is positive news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In mid to late October, oil prices began to fall, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market. Overall, the price of crude oil market has not changed much and is mainly fluctuating.

Supply side: During the National Day holiday, the crude oil market rose, the domestic commodity market pushed up, local refineries shipped normally during the holiday, downstream receiving sentiment was positive, and with downstream demand support after the holiday, the market for local refined petroleum coke continued to rise in the first half of October; In the second half of October, downstream purchases will be made on demand, and refineries will actively ship. Refineries will adjust the price of petroleum coke based on indicators and inventory. In October, the spot of low sulfur petroleum coke at the port was limited, with low inventory and increased market inquiries.

On the demand side: The overall market situation of 10 metal silicon is not volatile, and the supply of silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong is relatively stable. Yunnan mainly delivers early orders, and the overall price on the supply side is relatively low and stable. The overall purchasing volume of silicon metal downstream is limited, and downstream purchases are cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The overall market recovery from the demand side is average. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is average, and the support for the petroleum coke market is average.

The market for sulfur calcined coke in October first rose and then fell, with limited downstream demand. Currently, most companies are pre-saleing orders for next month, and downstream customers are mainly observing and waiting.

The daily production of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises is at a high level, and the upward space has narrowed. However, recently, Southern Power Grid announced that Yunnan electrolytic aluminum may lift power restrictions this winter and next spring, and downstream electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is expected to not reduce production in the fourth quarter; Downstream multiple sectors have experienced a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing slight destocking. Aluminum carbon enterprises have stable demand and mainly purchase on demand.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke in the refining industry is increasing, supporting the petroleum coke market. However, the latest pricing for pre baked anodes in November has slightly declined, and carbon companies are showing a strong wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that petroleum coke prices will be adjusted narrowly based on indicators and inventory in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8258 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price was 8466 yuan/ton on October 30th, with a price increase of 2.52% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10500 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price was 10866 yuan/ton on October 30th, with a price increase of 3.49% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8125 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price was 8475 yuan/ton on October 30th, with a price increase of 4.31% during this period.

The overall trend of polyethylene in October was strong, with a significant increase occurring after the National Day holiday. During the National Day holiday, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil market rose. After the holiday, the polyethylene market was boosted by favorable conditions, and prices increased significantly. The demand for agricultural film in October has entered the peak season, and there are positive expectations from the consumer side. On the supply side, with an increase in maintenance equipment and a reduction in supply, multiple favorable factors have boosted the upward trend of polyethylene prices. Starting from mid month, most enterprise quotations have remained firm, with a significant decline in high-voltage products. There are expectations of an increase in the supply side of high-voltage products, and some enterprises have restarted their equipment, which has suppressed the continuous downward movement of high-voltage product prices. In addition, the market has a resistance to high priced goods, and the market demand is lower than expected, resulting in low downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods. Most of the essential needs are mainly purchased at low prices. As the end of the month approaches, polyethylene is undergoing a weak and narrow adjustment. In order to promote transactions, businesses are actively offering discounts and shipping.

On October 31st, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 8071 yuan and closed at 8150 yuan, up 76 yuan, with a high of 8166 yuan and a low of 8061 yuan, up 0.94%. The October futures market trend is weak, suppressing the spot market.

The maintenance of the polyethylene plant in the fourth quarter is limited, but the supply is sufficient, and new production capacity is gradually being put into operation; The demand for agricultural film is gradually weakening in November, and it is expected that polyethylene will mainly show a weak trend.