According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (11.11-11.15), with an average market price of 17350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17200 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.86%.

This week’s market analysis

The price of magnesium ingots continued its downward trend this week, and after a weak operation, the price continued to adjust downwards. The manufacturer has accumulated inventory, sufficient supply, and weak terminal demand. The price of magnesium ingots is under pressure and has loosened downward. Downstream maintains essential procurement, with low transaction volume.

Upstream aspect

The price of Fugu 75 silicon iron remained unchanged from last week. The overall operation of the ferrosilicon market is weak and stable, with average market demand and downstream on-demand procurement, resulting in light actual transactions. The futures market is weak and volatile, and factory quotes have slightly loosened. It is expected that 75% silicon iron will be weak in the short term.

Fugu Blue Charcoal prices are running steadily. The supply of coal in Shaanxi region is relatively tight, with prices rising narrowly. The overall price of blue charcoal is relatively stable, but the operating rate of blue charcoal manufacturers has declined, with only a few companies lowering the prices of small and medium-sized materials and coke. The slight increase in raw material prices provides some cost support for blue charcoal. Considering the slight fluctuations in downstream prices, it is expected that the price of blue charcoal will remain relatively stable in the short term.

comprehensive analysis

The current factory production reduction is not yet significant, and there is a lack of obvious favorable factors to support it. It is expected that the short-term magnesium market will still be difficult to stop falling. Next week, the magnesium market may continue its weak consolidation trend, and we will observe the situation of factory production reduction and demand follow-up.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8596 yuan/ton on November 11th, and the average price was 8650 yuan/ton on November 15th, with a price increase of 0.62% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10733 yuan/ton on November 11th, and the average price was 10750 yuan/ton on November 14th, with a price increase of 0.16% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8500 yuan/ton on November 11th, and the average price was 8500 yuan/ton on November 15th, during which the quotation was temporarily stable.

There are many polyethylene parking inspections and a decrease in petrochemical inventory, which puts great pressure on inventory supply and supports the polyethylene market. According to data statistics, as of November 14th, the plastic two barrel oil inventory was 670000 tons, a decrease of 1.47% month on month and 0.74% year-on-year. The demand for greenhouse film has entered the final stage, downstream procurement efforts have decreased, and there is insufficient follow-up on new orders; Macro positive expectations have increased, and the market sentiment is relatively strong, boosting the plastic market.

On November 15th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 8322 yuan and closed at 8289 yuan, up 19 yuan, with a high of 8396 yuan and a low of 8270 yuan, up 0.23%. The recent strong trend of polyethylene futures has boosted the spot market.

The peak season for agricultural film is coming to an end, and the support for polyethylene is weakening. It is expected that the upward space for polyethylene will be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 14th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China is 6750 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6750 yuan/ton on November 8th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 14th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is 7000 yuan/ton, which is 0.48% higher than the reference average price of 6966 yuan/ton on November 8th.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

This week, the price of hot process phosphoric acid remained stable, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid slightly increased. As of November 14th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6800-7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7050 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market has weakened and fallen, and the focus of market transactions has shifted downwards. At present, the market supply is stable, and downstream customers are cautious in purchasing goods and prioritize demand. It is expected that domestic yellow phosphorus prices will stabilize in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the phosphate ore market has remained stable, mainly operating at a high level. At present, local supply is tight and supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This month, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, and the market transaction atmosphere is quiet. At present, the spot supply in the market is still acceptable, downstream demand is stable, and there is a small amount of replenishment. There is currently no significant change in the supply and demand side.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the phosphate market has been operating in a narrow range recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. Market trading is limited, and there are not many new transactions. Short term phosphoric acid market prices are expected to remain stagnant and operate steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the lithium carbonate market has shown an upward trend recently. As of November 13th, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China was 78400 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.08% from 76800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Battery grade lithium carbonate broke through the 80000 yuan mark and rebounded to 81000 yuan/ton, up 2.02% from 79400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The continuous increase in consumption of new energy vehicles drives the installation of batteries

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.463 million and 1.43 million respectively, an increase of 48% and 49.6% year-on-year. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.8% of the total new vehicle sales. The installed capacity of power batteries was 59.2GWh, a month on month increase of 8.6% and a year-on-year increase of 51%.

Supply side: domestic and international supply growth easing

Domestically speaking, data shows that in October 2024, the domestic production of lithium carbonate was 59000 tons, a decrease of 3.6% compared to the previous month. The estimated domestic production of lithium carbonate in November is 58900 tons, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous month.

From an international perspective, overseas mining companies have lowered their future production guidelines in their third quarter reports. Mainstream Australian mines have recently released financial reports showing that Liontown plans to lower its ore production target for the end of fiscal year 2027 from 3 million tons per year to 2.8 million tons, with an annual production of 260000 to 295000 tons of SC6 spodumene concentrate; Pilbara plans to put the Ngungaju factory under maintenance starting from December 1, 2024, and lower the production guidance for lithium concentrate in the 2025 fiscal year by 100000 tons to 700000 to 74000 tons.

Under the improvement of marginal effects, lithium carbonate maintained a continuous 10 week destocking trend. Data shows that as of the week of November 8th, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 110700 tons, a decrease of 3345 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory of the smelting plant was 35800 tons, a decrease of 4701 tons compared to the previous period, and the inventory of the smelting plant was at its lowest point this year.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that although the current improvement in supply has led to a strong trend in lithium carbonate, the expectation of overall oversupply of lithium carbonate in the long run has not changed, and it is expected that prices will maintain a weak and volatile trend. Specific market changes still need to be monitored.

Recently, the melamine market has indeed shown a weak trend, which is mainly caused by multiple factors such as fluctuations in raw materials, increased supply, and average demand. As of November 12th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6625.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.93% compared to the beginning of this month (6687.50 yuan/ton).

The following is a detailed analysis of the current weak operation of the melamine market:

1、 Raw material oscillation

One of the main raw materials for producing melamine is urea, and its price fluctuations directly affect the production cost and market price of melamine. In the first half of 2024, domestic coal supply is abundant, downstream daily consumption recovery is slow, and coal inventory is high, leading to a continuous downward shift in coal prices and a reduction in urea production costs. This cost reduction provides some room for a decrease in urea prices, which in turn affects the raw material cost of melamine. However, the reduction in raw material costs did not effectively boost the market demand for melamine, but instead exacerbated the weak operating situation of the market due to oversupply. As of November 12th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 2188.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.28% compared to the beginning of this month (2195.00 yuan/ton).

2、 Supply increase

New production capacity deployment: Recently, multiple melamine plants have been put into operation or planned to be put into operation, which directly leads to a significant increase in market supply.

Restoration of Maintenance Equipment: Some melamine units that were previously shut down due to maintenance have resumed production, further increasing market supply. These devices for resuming production have made the already oversupplied market even more severe.

3、 General demand

Insufficient production in downstream industries: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in production load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine. The market demand of these downstream industries is an important support for the melamine market, but their insufficient production directly weakens the market demand.

Reduced procurement demand: Due to increased supply and insufficient demand, downstream manufacturers and traders have reduced their procurement demand for melamine. This further exacerbates the weak operating situation of the market, leading to a downward trend in the price of melamine in the market.

4、 Market Impact and Future Prospects

Market price decline: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. Although prices have fluctuated during certain periods, overall the market price center is gradually shifting downwards.

Prominent supply-demand contradiction: With the gradual release of new production capacity and the sustained weakness of downstream industry demand, the supply-demand contradiction in the melamine market will become even more prominent. This may lead to continued pressure on market prices and face greater downward pressure.

Future trend judgment: It is expected that the market price of melamine will remain low for a period of time in the future. However, the specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships. Enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships to flexibly respond to market challenges and seek development opportunities.

In summary, multiple factors such as fluctuations in raw materials, increased supply, and average demand have collectively led to the current weak operating situation of the melamine market. The future market trend will be influenced by various factors, including the deployment of new production capacity, the recovery of downstream industry demand, and changes in raw material costs.

On November 12th, the average market price in East China was 257410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 256250-258250 yuan/ton, with an average price of 257250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

Shanghai tin fluctuated and fell in the morning session, with tin prices in the spot market slightly decreasing in the morning, and the decline in the market widened in the second trading session. At the close of the 12th, the main contract of Shanghai Wuxi 2412 closed down 1.92%.

The fundamental changes are not significant, and tin ingot production remains stable. Terminal consumption slowed down in November, and tin ingot inventory turned into accumulated inventory. Price fluctuations, refinery prices are high, and transactions are average. The sentiment in the spot market is cautious, with a focus on essential purchases. The actual demand growth downstream is lower than expected, and except for essential purchases, other buyers are waiting for further price reductions. In addition, domestic refined tin production has slightly increased, and production will remain stable in the short term. Today’s follow-up, I heard that Xiaopai has a discount of 300 to 100 yuan/ton for December, Yunzi Tou has a discount of around 100-500 yuan/ton for December, and Yunxi has a discount of around 500-800 yuan/ton for December.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has recently been sorted out from November 11th to November 11th. As of November 11th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market is around 17184 yuan/ton, up 1.95% from 16855 yuan/ton on November 1st, with a low point of 16764 yuan/ton during the cycle. Recently, the price range of raw materials has fluctuated; Domestic Tianjian inventory continues to increase slightly; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but they have some resistance to high priced sources, and the natural rubber market is consolidating in the high range.

With the arrival of the peak season for the opening and cutting of natural rubber in the fourth quarter, there is upward resistance in the price of raw rubber; The prices of natural rubber raw materials both domestically and internationally are still fluctuating within a certain range. As of November 11th, the price of Thai glue is 73.17 Thai baht per kilogram; As of November 11th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is around 17600 yuan/ton.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of November 3, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 413000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous period.

Downstream tire production is undergoing narrow consolidation, with demand mainly supported by the natural rubber market’s essential needs. As of November 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 60%.

Market forecast: The current range of raw material supply prices both domestically and internationally is fluctuating; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian has slightly increased; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly fluctuate in the weak range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on November 8th, the average market price has been adjusted to 6345 yuan per ton.

In terms of costs, the Federal Reserve continued to cut interest rates in November, coupled with Hurricane Rafael posing risks to crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico region, leading to an increase in international oil prices. With the temporary consumption of bearish sentiment in the market, polyester dual raw materials rose again on the 7th, and PET costs still have some support.

In terms of supply and demand, local sources of goods are tight, and PET market quotations are rebounding along with the raw material side. Considering the overall loose supply and limited downstream follow-up, the actual increase is limited.

Overall, it is expected that the PET market will remain stable in the short term with limited upward potential. The actual trend will depend on the trend of the raw material side and the subsequent actual supply and demand situation, and attention will be paid to changes in crude oil.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 7th, the reference average price of domestic urea market is 2183 yuan/ton, which is 0.42% lower than the reference average price of 2193 yuan/ton on November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

In the first week of November, the domestic urea market price first fell and then rose. As of November 7th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1800-1820 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1840 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1830 yuan/ton, and in Hubei region it is around 1860 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, there has been a decrease in supply and limited demand in the urea market. On the supply side, there has been a decrease in urea market supply this week, with some companies undergoing equipment maintenance and a high volume of pending orders. In terms of demand, downstream purchases are made on demand, mainly for essential needs, and market transactions are still acceptable.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has seen a slight increase in recent days, and market transactions have improved. At present, urea inventory remains high, and downstream demand follow-up is limited. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea market will mainly experience a narrow range of price consolidation and operation.

This week, the melamine market has indeed shown a weak trend, with an increase in supply being an important factor leading to market weakness. As of November 6th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6675.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.19% compared to the beginning of this month (6687.50 yuan/ton).

The following is a detailed analysis of the current operation of the melamine market:

1、 Supply increase

New production capacity deployment: Recently, multiple melamine plants have been put into operation or planned to be put into operation, resulting in a significant increase in market supply.

Restoration of Maintenance Equipment: Some melamine units that were previously shut down due to maintenance have resumed production, further increasing market supply.

2、 Weak demand

Insufficient production in downstream industries: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in production load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.

Reduced procurement demand: Due to increased supply and insufficient demand, downstream manufacturers and traders have reduced their procurement demand for melamine, further exacerbating the weak market situation.

3、 Market price trend

Price decline: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. Although prices have fluctuated during certain periods, overall, the market price center is gradually shifting downwards.

Limited decline: Due to factors such as raw material costs, the decline in melamine market prices is relatively limited. However, against the backdrop of oversupply and insufficient demand, market prices still face significant downward pressure.

4、 Trend of raw material prices

The main reasons for the decrease in urea prices this week include increased supply, reduced demand, lower costs, pessimistic market expectations, and policy impacts.

The main raw materials for producing urea are coal and natural gas. In the first half of 2024, domestic coal supply was abundant, downstream daily consumption recovered slowly, coal inventories remained high, and the center of gravity of coal prices continued to shift downwards, resulting in a decrease in the production cost of urea and providing some space for the decline of urea prices. As of November 6th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 2181.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.63% compared to the beginning of this month (2195.00 yuan/ton).

5、 Market outlook

Prominent supply-demand contradiction: With the gradual release of new production capacity and the sustained weakness of downstream industry demand, the supply-demand contradiction in the melamine market will become even more prominent.

Low price operation: It is expected that the market price of melamine will remain low for a period of time in the future. However, the specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.

In summary, the main reasons for the weak operation of the melamine market this week are the increase in supply and weak demand. Against the backdrop of oversupply and insufficient demand, market prices are showing a downward trend. The future market trend will be influenced by various factors, including the deployment of new production capacity, the recovery of downstream industry demand, and changes in raw material costs. Therefore, enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships in order to flexibly respond to market challenges and seek development opportunities.