Recently, the domestic ABS market has been stable with some weakness, and spot prices of various grades have fluctuated. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11500 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of -0.11% compared to the price level on October 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: At the end of October, the load level of the domestic ABS industry slightly increased. Recently, some maintenance facilities in northern Huajin and Tianjin Dagu have resumed work, and the industry’s operating rate has increased by 5% to nearly 67%. The overall amount of goods produced on-site is slightly more than digested. The supply remains at a sufficient level, and the macroeconomic atmosphere in the early stage has stimulated some short positions. The current situation is basically exhausted, and the effect of destocking is limited. Currently, the inventory position remains at a high level of over 180000 tons. Overall, the current supply side’s support for ABS spot prices has weakened.

Cost factor: During late October, the upstream three materials of ABS showed two increases and one flat trend, which eased the drag on the cost side of ABS. The acrylonitrile market continues to rise. Some regions experienced a contraction in spot supply within the next ten days, prompting producers to raise prices accordingly. At the same time, the overall inventory position of the industry is moderate, providing ample room for the market to rise. The increase in operating rates of downstream products has also raised demand expectations, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to rise.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been consolidating sideways, and the good news of replenishing inventory after the holiday has been completely digested. At the same time, the industry’s production has increased and supply has increased, resulting in a decrease in supply and demand, and the market is under pressure. However, as downstream markets such as synthetic rubber shift profits from butadiene, consumer power also builds a bottom for the butadiene market. The current spot market is balanced by long and short positions, with prices generally stable and fluctuating slightly.

Recently, the styrene market has continued to rise. The current basis continues to strengthen, and monthly negotiations are mainly focused on exchanges. Styrene inventory has decreased in Jiangsu ports and in South China ports. Combined with last week’s decline in industry operating rates, the styrene market has shifted from a decline to an increase. There are many inquiries in the current market, and actual orders are cautious. It is expected that the styrene market will slightly strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

In terms of demand: At the end of October, the main terminal demand for ABS has not yet shown the peak season level. With the decline of stocking up and short selling after the beginning of the month, the market has returned to the off-season trend, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The high-temperature holiday for home appliance manufacturers has basically ended, but the overall load position of downstream factories is slowly recovering. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and stocking operations are mainly based on weak demand to maintain production. Traders lack confidence in the future market, their willingness to build warehouses decreases, and their offers are subject to market conditions, resulting in a slower flow of goods. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

At the end of October, the domestic ABS prices showed weak consolidation. Upstream three materials saw two increases and one leveling off, providing comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS to stabilize. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly increased, while the high inventory of finished products remains unchanged. The weak demand on the demand side is difficult to change, and market trading is weak. The mismatch between supply and demand within the venue has not been effectively improved. It is expected that the ABS market will mainly operate weakly in the short term in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 2175 yuan/ton, which is 0.83% higher than the reference average price of 2157 yuan/ton on October 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

The domestic urea market price fluctuated and rose in October, but then fell weakly. As of October 29th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1770-1810 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1810-1830 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1810 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1890 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from July 29, 2024 to October 21, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. The maximum increase in October was 0.93% in the week of the 10th and 7th, and the maximum decrease was -1.18% in the week of the 10th and 21st,

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this month. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains essential procurement, market trading is average, and transactions are limited. At present, the supply and demand are relatively balanced.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has been steadily consolidating and operating in recent days. At present, there is no positive news in the market, with downstream demand being the main focus. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will experience a slight consolidation and operation in the short term.

Market Overview

This week, the trading atmosphere in the melamine market was cold, and the price continued to decline weakly, but the decline has slowed down. Although it rose yesterday, the magnitude was not significant. As of October 25th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6712.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (6737.50 yuan/ton).

Supply side

Recently, the overall price of urea in the domestic market has remained stable, with some factories in certain regions slightly raising their prices. In mainstream regions, there have been a certain number of transactions at the low-end price of urea enterprises, with an increase of 10-30 yuan/ton. On October 25th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 2175.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% compared to the beginning of this month (2157.00 yuan/ton). At present, the low-end transactions in the domestic urea market have slightly improved, and downstream merchants are purchasing in moderation at low prices. High price transactions are still weak, and the overall transaction situation is still weak, with a slightly stagnant market atmosphere.

In terms of demand

Recently, the melamine market has cooled down, and demand has been moderately followed up. It is reported that some sheet metal factories have recently reduced their operating load, and considering that the supply of melamine will increase in the later maintenance and restoration of multiple factories, downstream manufacturers and traders have reduced their demand for melamine procurement.

This week, China’s melamine production was 27500 tons, an increase of 12.70% compared to last week. Next week, some maintenance facilities in Anhui, Shandong, and Sichuan will gradually resume shipments, and the supply of melamine may increase.

Overall

The progress of the melamine market is average, with slow recovery of early maintenance equipment and lower than expected increase in supply, supporting the sentiment of manufacturers. Prices have slightly increased. However, in the long run, with the gradual recovery of supply and the release of new production capacity last month, the melamine market is not favorable enough, and prices may still decline. However, considering the high cost, it is expected that the overall decline will be limited.

Recently, the price of locally refined petroleum coke has slightly increased. As of October 28th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1478.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% from 1473.50 yuan/ton on October 21st.

Cost wise: Recently, the overall rise in crude oil prices has been positive for international oil prices due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In addition, the local economy in Asia has improved, and the market’s panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. Finally, the decrease in US crude oil inventories supported the oil market positively.

Supply side: Recently, downstream demand for refined petroleum coke has been stocking up to support the petroleum coke market. The price of petroleum coke is affected by indicators, and prices fluctuate. Recently, there has been limited availability of low sulfur petroleum coke in the port, with low inventory and increased market inquiries.

On the demand side: Currently, the supply of silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong regions is relatively stable, while Yunnan region mainly delivers early-stage orders, and the overall price on the supply side is relatively low and stable. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is average, and its support for the petroleum coke market is limited.

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable, with limited downstream demand. Currently, most companies are pre-saleing orders for next month, and downstream customers are mainly observing and waiting.

The daily production of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises is at a high level, and the upward space has narrowed. However, recently, Southern Power Grid announced that Yunnan electrolytic aluminum may lift power restrictions this winter and next spring, and downstream electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is expected to not reduce production in the fourth quarter; Downstream multiple sectors have experienced a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing slight destocking.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke in the refining industry is increasing, supporting the petroleum coke market. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke will be adjusted narrowly based on indicators and inventory in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash remained stable this week. On October 25th, the average market price of soda ash was 1594 yuan/ton, and on October 21st, the price of soda ash was 1594 yuan/ton. The price remained stable during the week, with a 1.24% decrease from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall soda ash market has been weak and stable this week. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has slightly increased, the market supply has increased, and the prices at the beginning of the week have mostly stabilized; In terms of demand, the downstream market has risen, which has boosted the mentality of the soda ash market. However, due to the high inventory and consumption in the early stage of the downstream market, actual transactions in the market are limited, and only some areas of soda ash have slightly increased during the week.

As of October 25th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1420-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1370-1600 yuan/ton for the mainstream price of light soda ash.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market has risen strongly. From October 21st to 25th, the price of glass increased from 14.75 yuan/square meter to 15.00 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.69%. The demand in the glass market has increased, manufacturers are shipping smoothly, total inventory of enterprises has decreased, glass prices have been raised narrowly, and the overall market trend has been strong during the week.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity remains high, and there is still inventory pressure on spot soda ash factories. The downstream glass price market is improving, which may provide positive support for the soda ash market. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that soda ash will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term, with specific attention paid to downstream demand follow-up.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On October 24th, the average market price was 7388 yuan/ton.

Analysis: Today, the domestic pure benzene market continues to operate strongly, with Shandong local refining continuing to slightly increase, and the atmosphere of on-site negotiations is still acceptable. Although there will be a typhoon impact next week, the high inventory at the port makes it difficult for the typhoon to have a sustained impact on the price trend. It is expected that the pure benzene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8463 yuan/ton on October 15th, and the average price was 8450 yuan/ton on October 22nd, with a price drop of 0.16% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 11150 yuan/ton on October 15th, and the average price was 11000 yuan/ton on October 22nd, during which the quotation fell by 1.35%.

On October 22nd, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 8086 yuan and closed at 8096 yuan, up 1 yuan, with a maximum of 8120 yuan and a minimum of 8077 yuan, up 0.01%.

Recently, the decline in oil prices has been negative for the polyethylene market. On the supply side, the maintenance equipment has been restarted, and the supply has increased compared to the previous period. There is an expectation of an increase in the supply of LDPE products. Recently, the LDPE equipment of Shanghai Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical has been restarted, which has significantly lowered the price of high-pressure products. On the demand side, market demand fell short of expectations, downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods was not high, and most of the essential needs were mainly purchased at low prices, with limited support on the demand side. Negative factors dominate, and the polyethylene market is weak and declining.

On October 22nd, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 8086 yuan and closed at 8096 yuan, up 1 yuan, with a maximum of 8120 yuan and a minimum of 8077 yuan, up 0.01%. The recent trend of futures market is weak, which is suppressing the spot market.

International oil prices may experience a slight decline, with insufficient cost support; On the demand side, there is not much change in the production of agricultural film, and the demand follow-up during peak season is slow. The support from the demand side is limited, and it is expected that polyethylene may have a weak trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 21st, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China is 6780 yuan/ton, which is 0.15% higher than the reference average price of 6770 yuan/ton on October 14th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 21st, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is 6950 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6950 yuan/ton on October 14th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices fluctuated narrowly, with consolidation as the main trend. As of October 21st, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6850-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6750-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7050 yuan/ton.

Cost end

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market has weakened and fallen. Some yellow phosphorus enterprises have maintenance plans, resulting in a decrease in market supply. Downstream purchases are made on demand, with a strong wait-and-see attitude, and market transactions are mainly based on low prices.

Raw material phosphate rock market. The phosphate ore market has remained stable this week, with prices remaining firm and a relatively optimistic outlook. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This month, the supply of phosphoric acid in the market is tight, with a shortage of spot goods and a slight increase in market prices. Downstream urgent procurement requires caution in obtaining goods. At present, there is still some support on the supply side.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the phosphate market has been experiencing slight fluctuations and consolidation in recent days. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, providing good cost support. At present, the supply in the spot market is tight, and the market has slightly rebounded. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will mainly experience price consolidation.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has recently stopped rising and returned to decline, with some spot prices of certain brands falling back to pre holiday levels. As of October 18th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16050 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.31% compared to early October.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: Since October, the overall operating rate of PC in China has increased at a high level. As of the time of writing, the industry average operating rate has risen from 79% at the end of last month to around 82%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. The loose supply pattern in October has not changed, and the previous good news is gradually exhausted. Manufacturers are unable to raise prices, and factory pricing is under pressure to be lowered. At the same time, the future maintenance plan is sparse, and the market supply side has a serious drag on PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A in China has significantly decreased recently. The market for phenol and acetone, the direct raw materials of bisphenol A, has been weak and flat, with average cost support. The downstream production changes of the two main forces are limited, coupled with insufficient stocking heat, the profit situation of enterprises has weakened, and the consumption of bisphenol A is not good. In addition, the heavy load of bisphenol A industry has returned before the holiday, resulting in an increase in on-site supply of goods. Overall, bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. Last month, the traditional peak season “Golden September” terminal consumption situation has not yet unfolded, and the logic of purchasing weak demand has continued to this day. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. The market has not responded well to the stocking market before and after the festival, and buyers are strongly resistant to high priced goods, resulting in slow circulation of goods on site. Due to the traditional peak season consumption not meeting expectations, it is difficult for the demand side to form strong support for spot prices.

Future forecast

Recently, the PC market has given up its previous gains and is showing a weak trend. The upstream bisphenol A market is accelerating its decline, and the cost support for PC is weakening. The load of domestic aggregation plants has increased at a high level, and the supply remains high. The current PC prices have basically returned to the pre holiday low point, and downstream peak season consumption has not yet been realized, making it difficult for weak demand stocking to drive the market. The flow of market goods is poor, and the mismatch between supply and demand is profound. The positive sentiment in the macro commodity market improved in the early stage, but the market momentum did not substantially improve, resulting in a stagnant and declining market trend. However, considering that PC prices have fallen back to the low point range of the year, although there is currently no positive fundamental driving force, Business Society expects that the PC market may maintain a slight adjustment in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after the end of the National Day holiday, the domestic polyester staple fiber market showed a surge and a decline. As of October 17th, the average market price in East China was 7385 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the month. The geopolitical situation has once again become tense, with international crude oil prices strengthening and the cost support of polyester short fibers rising. In addition, China announced a series of economic stimulus policies before the holiday, and the commodity market atmosphere is relatively warm. However, downstream terminal demand has shown average performance, and at the same time, the international crude oil market has fallen, leading to a decline in the price of polyester staple fibers.

Looking ahead, on October 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.39 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.22 per barrel. The significant decline in international crude oil prices has weakened the cost support for PTA. Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the third consecutive month, raising concerns about the demand outlook.

PTA factory equipment has experienced frequent restarts after short-term shutdowns, and the current industry operating rate is around 88%. It will continue to operate at a high level in the near future, and the supply of goods remains abundant. In terms of price, as of October 17th, the average market price of PTA in East China was 4887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the beginning of the month.

Due to the impact of cost decline and the lack of significant increase in terminal orders, the signal of peak season for yarn mills has not appeared, and they are purchasing short fibers or maintaining sporadic rigid demand purchases. Most of them adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the focus of market transactions is weakening. It is expected that the consumption of raw materials purchased by terminal factories in the early stage will reach a low level by the end of October, and the expectation of replenishment for essential needs will to some extent support their prices.

Business analysts believe that on the cost side, with the decline in international crude oil prices and limited maintenance of PTA facilities in recent times, the overall market supply is sufficient, and the focus of cost support has shifted downwards. The terminal maintains normal production, consumes more raw materials in the early stage of stocking, and has weak procurement follow-up. Short term fundamentals are weak and difficult to change, and the price of polyester staple fiber will continue to decline.