According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after the end of the National Day holiday, the domestic polyester staple fiber market showed a surge and a decline. As of October 17th, the average market price in East China was 7385 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the month. The geopolitical situation has once again become tense, with international crude oil prices strengthening and the cost support of polyester short fibers rising. In addition, China announced a series of economic stimulus policies before the holiday, and the commodity market atmosphere is relatively warm. However, downstream terminal demand has shown average performance, and at the same time, the international crude oil market has fallen, leading to a decline in the price of polyester staple fibers.

Looking ahead, on October 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.39 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.22 per barrel. The significant decline in international crude oil prices has weakened the cost support for PTA. Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the third consecutive month, raising concerns about the demand outlook.

PTA factory equipment has experienced frequent restarts after short-term shutdowns, and the current industry operating rate is around 88%. It will continue to operate at a high level in the near future, and the supply of goods remains abundant. In terms of price, as of October 17th, the average market price of PTA in East China was 4887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the beginning of the month.

Due to the impact of cost decline and the lack of significant increase in terminal orders, the signal of peak season for yarn mills has not appeared, and they are purchasing short fibers or maintaining sporadic rigid demand purchases. Most of them adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the focus of market transactions is weakening. It is expected that the consumption of raw materials purchased by terminal factories in the early stage will reach a low level by the end of October, and the expectation of replenishment for essential needs will to some extent support their prices.

Business analysts believe that on the cost side, with the decline in international crude oil prices and limited maintenance of PTA facilities in recent times, the overall market supply is sufficient, and the focus of cost support has shifted downwards. The terminal maintains normal production, consumes more raw materials in the early stage of stocking, and has weak procurement follow-up. Short term fundamentals are weak and difficult to change, and the price of polyester staple fiber will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 16th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2193 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% compared to the reference average price of 2183 yuan/ton on October 8th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

After the holiday, the domestic urea market price first fell and then rose. As of October 16th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1760-1820 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1845 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1830 yuan/ton, and in Hubei region it is around 1880 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

The supply and demand balance in the urea market this week. In terms of supply, the urea market has sufficient supply this week, and the production of enterprises has remained at a high level. In terms of demand, downstream demand for replenishment is high, with low-priced procurement being the main focus, and market transactions are still acceptable. Mainstream enterprises still have pending orders.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market trend has fluctuated narrowly in recent days. The rise in futures prices drives up prices in the spot market. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is still good, and there has been an increase in transactions. It is expected that the domestic urea market will experience a strong upward trend in price in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on October 15th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9387 yuan/ton. On October 9th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9600 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.21%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that after the holiday, the domestic cyclohexanone market had a brief upward trend. However, due to limited overall market support, the cyclohexanone market quickly rebounded, swallowing up the narrow rise after the holiday. The market center of gravity continued to move downwards, with a cumulative decrease of 100-200 yuan/ton in the past four days. As of October 15th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong region is around 9300-9500 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia region it is around 9100 yuan/ton.

Fundamental analysis: Currently, the fundamental performance of the cyclohexanone market is weak, with loose support from the cost side and a lack of overall cost support. Downstream demand is generally average, and the demand side is cautious in purchasing on demand.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is light, and the mentality of industry players is average. The overall supply and demand transmission in the market is weak. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

After the holiday, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated slightly and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by the phthalic anhydride method was 7387.5 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.60% compared to the price of 7200 yuan/ton on October 1st. The price of ortho phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is stabilizing. After the holiday, the domestic price of ortho phthalic anhydride is quoted at 7200-7400 yuan/ton for production, while the price of industrial naphthalene is rising. The cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is also rising, and the domestic price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is quoted at 7000-7100 yuan/ton for production.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

After the holiday, the operating load of domestic phthalic anhydride plants increased, with an increase in the operation of naphthalene phthalic anhydride equipment and an increase in the operation load of neighboring phthalic anhydride equipment. The supply of phthalic anhydride from manufacturers has increased, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. The downward pressure of phthalic anhydride has weakened, and the upward pressure still exists.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the price of ortho benzene was 7100 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho benzene of 7100 yuan/ton on October 1st. The price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is stable, and the downward pressure of ortho phthalic anhydride is weakened.

Demand side: DOP market trend first rises and then falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9226.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.64% compared to the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, DOP prices first rose and then fell, with fluctuations in DOP prices. The post holiday economic recovery, coupled with the replenishment of plasticizers after the holiday, has led to an increase in demand for DOP and a rise in DOP prices. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased, leading to an increase in demand for plasticizers; With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, coupled with a slower than expected economic recovery, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. The price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply and then fell back.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene is stabilizing, and the cost of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable; In terms of supply, phthalic anhydride manufacturers are operating at high loads, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have increased their production and demand for phthalic anhydride has risen. Both supply and demand have increased, but the increase in supply is expected to be greater than the increase in demand, and it is expected that the market for phthalic anhydride will be weak and volatile in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has increased after the holiday. On October 12th, the average market price of soda ash was 1644 yuan/ton, and on October 8th, the price of soda ash was 1614 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton or 1.86% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has slightly increased after the holiday. On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient, and manufacturers are actively shipping; On the demand side, the downstream market is rising, boosting the soda ash market. The demand for soda ash is steadily following up, and the market trading atmosphere is improving. On site shipments are smooth, and soda ash prices are consolidating and rising.

As of October 12th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1500-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1400-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market has risen strongly. From October 8th to 12th, the price of glass increased from 13.45 yuan/square meter to 14.85 yuan/square meter, an increase of 10.41%. During the holiday season, the demand for glass market is strong, and glass prices have risen sharply. Downstream demand has weakened after the holiday, and manufacturers have reduced shipments, resulting in a slight decrease in market prices. The overall market trend during the week is relatively strong.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity continues to be at a high level, and there is significant inventory pressure on spot soda ash factories. Downstream glass prices have risen significantly, which is favorable for the soda ash market. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that soda ash will operate steadily in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after the National Day holiday, there has been an increase in terminal demand, and the hydrogen peroxide market has risen. On October 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 773 yuan/ton, and on October 10th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 780 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.86%.

Terminal demand increases, hydrogen peroxide market oscillates and rises

After the National Day holiday, the demand for terminal rigidity increased, and manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide rebounded slightly, supported by positive factors. The hydrogen peroxide market saw an increase, with an overall quotation of 700-800 yuan/ton. On October 10th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of about 20 yuan/ton. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 720 yuan/ton, with a price increase of about 40 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 840 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 40 yuan/ton.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that by the end of October, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals will rebound, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 9, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7086 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 6813 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 273 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.01%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in September, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed a fluctuating downward trend. In early September, the n-butanol market continued to decline, and the market center continued to move towards lower levels. As of September 15th, the n-butanol market price in Shandong region was based on 6666 yuan/ton, with a drop of 6.32% in the first half of the year.

On the supply side: After the holiday, the domestic n-butanol market remained stable in terms of supply, with less pressure on the overall supply side of n-butanol. The overall supply inventory in the market was low, and the supply side provided support for the n-butanol market.

On the demand side: After the holiday, downstream demand procurement for n-butanol performed well, and downstream users were more active in restocking, driving the n-butanol market to rise on the demand side.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ October 9th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7200 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7200 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7500-7600 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7400-7500 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, with some downstream companies stocking up before the holiday. The overall market demand has slightly improved, and shipments at low prices have also improved. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The acetone offers in various markets across the country on October 8th are as follows:

East China region: 5800-5850, up 100%

Shandong region: 5900-5950, up 50%

Surrounding area of Yanshan Mountain: 5950 square meters

South China region: 6000-6050, up 100%

During the holiday, crude oil prices rose sharply, and on the first day after the holiday, traders had a positive attitude and a strong sentiment towards raising prices. The offers continued to push up, and in the afternoon, some factories raised their listing prices. The market activity was high, and inquiries were active. On the 8th, the port inventory in Jiangyin was 25000 tons, slightly lower than last week. Short term cargo replenishment is limited, and port inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that acetone will continue to rise in the short term, and downstream demand should be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of ethyl acetate remained stable on September 30th, with a factory price of 6066.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous trading day’s price. The cost support is stable, downstream follows up as needed, and the supplier remains cautious. The price of ethyl acetate remains stable.

Market analysis: The market for ethyl acetate remains stable. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid remains stable and wait-and-see, with limited cost support; On the demand side, downstream pre holiday stocking enthusiasm has weakened, with a focus on following up on demand; On the factory side, the sales mentality has slowed down, with stable quotations as the main focus, waiting for news to be released after the holiday.

Looking ahead, the market for ethyl acetate raw materials remains stable, with insufficient upward momentum and a wait-and-see attitude in the ethyl ester market; On the supply side, ethyl acetate manufacturers ship on demand, with little sales pressure; Downstream demand has slowed down, and trading in the market has become weak. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will weaken and consolidate after the holiday. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.