1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1810 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.83% during the month and a decrease of 47.77% compared to the same period last year. On September 29th, the light soda ash commodity index was 82.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.23% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 31.07% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market continued to decline this month. On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash is high, the production of soda ash is sufficient, the inventory pressure of enterprises continues to exist, and market confidence is insufficient; On the demand side, the terminal market is mainly weak, with excessive consumption of inventory and limited demand for soda ash. The market trading atmosphere is quiet, and under the game of supply and demand, soda ash prices continued to decline weakly during the month. As of September 29, 2024, the mainstream market price for light soda ash in East China is around 1450-1600 yuan/ton, while in Central China, the mainstream market price for light soda ash is around 1400-1550 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of glass has continued to decline this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 15.72 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 13.45 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 14.44%. The spot market in the glass market continues to be weak, downstream demand is weak, inventory consumption is the main factor, market trading is insufficient, and the price market is running weakly.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 39th week of 2024 (9.23-9.27), there were a total of 2 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 2 products with zero price fluctuations in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen are: calcium carbide (2.53%), PVC (1.25%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are: light soda ash (-2.77%) and baking soda (-1.48%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.08%.

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash in some areas has slightly rebounded recently. Although the operating rate of spot soda ash plants is still high and the supply of goods is sufficient, there has been a slight increase in the downstream before the holiday, which has boosted the soda ash market. The intention of operators to rise has increased, and it is expected that the price of soda ash may slightly rebound in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has fallen this week. As of September 27th, the average market price of soda ash was 1614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week price of 1660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.77%, and a decrease of 10.83% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall soda ash market has been weak this week. On the supply side, the equipment of maintenance enterprises has resumed operation, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has been improved, the market supply of goods has increased, the pressure on manufacturers’ inventory is greater, and the focus of soda ash transactions continues to shift downwards; On the demand side, downstream demand first fell and then stabilized, with limited demand for soda ash. Prior to the holiday, downstream demand was replenished as needed, and some soda ash companies shipped some products. In some regions, soda ash prices were raised. On September 27th, the price of soda ash in East China increased slightly, with the mainstream market price for light soda ash ranging from 1430 to 1600 yuan/ton; The price of soda ash in central China has slightly increased, with the mainstream market price for light soda ash ranging from 1350-1550 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the glass price market first fell and then stabilized. As of September 27th, the market average price was 13.45 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 0.74% compared to the market average price of 13.55 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the week. The glass market has experienced a slight decline in production, but overall it is still weak, with limited inventory reduction and downstream purchases following up on demand, resulting in weak glass prices.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity is high, and there is significant inventory pressure on spot soda ash factories. The downstream glass industry is temporarily stable, but demand support is still limited. The soda ash market has insufficient trading, and the atmosphere in the market is cautious. It is expected that the short-term soda ash will be observed and consolidated, depending on downstream market demand.

Aluminum prices fell first and then rose in September

Aluminum prices first fell and then rose in September, showing strong performance recently. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 26, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 19980 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.71% from the market average price of 19643.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1).

On September 26, 2024, the spot price of aluminum ingots (AL99.70) for China Aluminum Corporation Limited is as follows: the external quotation for the East China market is 19990 yuan/ton, the external quotation for the South China market is 19810 yuan/ton, the external quotation for the Southwest market is 19940 yuan/ton, and the external quotation for the Central Plains market is 19940 yuan/ton.

Macro positive news

On September 24, Pan Gongsheng, President of the People’s Bank of China, announced at the press conference of the State Council Reform Office that he would create swap facilities for securities, funds and insurance companies, and support eligible securities, funds and insurance companies to obtain liquidity from the Central Bank through asset pledge, which would significantly improve their ability to obtain funds and increase their stock holdings. Create special refinancing programs to guide banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders, and support stock repurchases and increases in holdings.

The Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, stated that the reserve requirement ratio will be further lowered by the end of the year based on the situation. It is possible to further lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25-0.5 percentage points.

The central bank has proposed further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts to release liquidity, while also creating a shift towards refinancing to guide listed companies to repurchase and increase their holdings of stocks. At the real estate level, it is proposed to lower the interest rates of existing housing loans and unify the minimum down payment ratio for housing loans. A series of policy combinations have brought confidence to the market, and commodities have collectively turned red. In the short term, non-ferrous metals are mainly boosted by policies.

Domestic inventory changes

In September, the overall inventory of the electrolytic aluminum plant area decreased, and the social inventory decreased significantly, resulting in a downward shift in overall inventory.

As of September 26th, incomplete statistics show that the main electrolytic aluminum plant inventory in China is 49000 tons, compared to 53000 tons on August 29th. The inventory has decreased by 4000 tons, but compared to 47000 tons on September 12th, the cumulative inventory is 2000 tons.

As of September 26th, the mainstream social inventory of aluminum ingots in China was 684000 tons, compared to the main factory inventory of 803000 tons on August 29th, with 119000 tons sold out.

Future expectations

Recently, on the supply side, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises are nearing the end of their resumption of production, with high daily output and narrowed upward space; Overseas New Zealand direction, due to power shortages, supply has slightly decreased. On the demand side, there has been a rebound in operating rates in multiple downstream sectors, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing slight destocking. It is expected that supply and demand will stabilize in the short term, with the main focus on macro trading sentiment.

In the medium term, focusing on the supply tightening caused by the reduction in production during the dry season, the favorable supply side may be an important factor supporting the future strength of aluminum prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 25th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China is 6800 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6800 yuan/ton on September 19th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 25th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6966 yuan/ton, which is 0.95% lower than the reference average price of 7033 yuan/ton on September 19th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market experienced narrow fluctuations. As of September 25th, the market price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6800-7000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6700-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7050 yuan/ton.

Cost end

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has decreased, leading to a lack of market confidence and a poor trading atmosphere. The shipment of yellow phosphorus was not smooth before the holiday, and downstream price cutting procurement was the main reason. It is expected that the short-term yellow phosphorus market will continue to weaken and decline.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the market price of phosphate ore remained stable at a high level, with tight supply in some areas, and the main focus was on issuing preliminary orders. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the supply and demand in the phosphoric acid market are relatively balanced. There is currently no significant change in market supply, downstream purchases are made on demand, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is average. The prices of some phosphoric acid enterprises have slightly decreased, and the market is in urgent need of support. It is expected that there will be no significant fluctuations in short-term supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been stagnant and consolidating recently. Due to the decrease in the price of raw material yellow phosphorus, some phosphoric acid manufacturers have made slight adjustments. At present, cost support is weakening, but pre holiday demand remains. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will remain stagnant and operate mainly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on September 24th was 903 yuan/ton, which is 1.09% lower than the average price of 913 yuan/ton on September 18th.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has slightly decreased. The profits of coking enterprises have increased, the operating rate has remained stable, and the operating rate at the domestic level has decreased. The demand for downstream stocking before the holiday is still there, but market inquiries have decreased, and many are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The export sector is mainly supported by essential needs, and there is currently no significant improvement in the market. As of September 24th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 890 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 890-930 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has recently experienced a narrow downward trend, and the overall trend is weak. The enthusiasm for downstream stocking before the holiday is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere is not good. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.

Product Name: Pure Benzene (Petroleum Benzene)

Latest price: On September 23rd, the average market price was 8326.33 yuan/ton.

Analysis: Today, domestic pure benzene prices have been lowered, and the atmosphere of on-site negotiations is currently average. On Monday, the East China Port had a stock of 30000 tons. Last week’s typhoon affected the arrival of goods, and the port was in a state of destocking. The crude oil market is mainly volatile, with limited short-term impact on the rise of pure benzene. As the National Day holiday approaches, mountain refineries are actively stocking up and offering discounts for shipments. Prediction: It is expected that the pure benzene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot price stopped falling and stabilized this week (September 16-20). As of September 20, the average PTA spot price in East China was 4811 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% from the beginning of the week. The international oil price trend is relatively strong, providing upward support for PTA costs. In addition, the macroeconomic sentiment has improved, and the general rise in commodity markets has triggered resonance. Due to the unplanned shutdown of multiple PTA plants, prices have stopped falling and rebounded slightly.

Specifically, the decline in the US dollar exchange rate supports the oil futures market, coupled with the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the rebound of crude oil. As of September 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.16 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.01 per barrel.

On the supply side, next week a 2.2 million ton PTA short-term shutdown unit will restart in the East China region, another 1.2 million ton PTA unit will restart, and a 1 million ton PTA short-term shutdown unit in the Southwest will restart. The current industry operating rate is around 80%, and it is expected that the supply will increase in the future. The operating rate will further increase, and the spot market supply is still abundant.

From a downstream perspective, the poor quality of “Golden Nine” and the sluggish demand during peak seasons have led to poor market confidence, causing the polyester industry to experience a slight decline in production to around 85%. The terminal market is in a lukewarm state, with a focus on maintaining essential needs for raw material procurement. Some small terminal enterprises still face financial pressure. The mainstream polyester staple fiber factories have experienced short shutdowns due to weather conditions, which has tightened the liquidity of some brand sources and boosted the market.

Business analysts believe that macroeconomic interest rate cuts provide support for the oil market, and in the short term, oil prices may fluctuate and remain stable, while cost support is still acceptable. Our own supply side will increase next week, but downstream polyester production is slowly increasing, and demand continues to improve, helping to improve PTA fundamentals. Overall, PTA prices are expected to remain strong in the short term.

In the current cycle (20240912-20240919), with good low-end supply transactions in the acrylic acid market, prices continue to rise steadily, and the atmosphere in the market is good. Although the follow-up of new orders has slowed down compared to the previous period, the mentality of manufacturers is strong, and market demand is multi-dimensional, holding a moderate purchase at low prices. As of September 18th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6775.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (6750.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of cost

This week, the raw material propylene fluctuated within a narrow range, and the cost of acrylic acid did not fluctuate significantly. With the continuous rise in acrylic acid prices, the industry’s profitability continued to rebound. As of September 18th, the reference price of propylene was 6750.75, a decrease of 3.12% compared to September 1st (6968.25). At present, it is expected that there will be a narrow adjustment in the price of propylene market in the short term, but it is still necessary to closely monitor the follow-up of downstream demand in the later stage.

In terms of demand

The price of butyl acrylate has decreased. This week, the butyl acrylate market has slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere in the market is quiet. Downstream manufacturers have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and transactions are mainly dominated by first-time contract holders. The focus of butyl acrylate quotations is gradually shifting downwards, and upstream cost support is also limited. In the short term, it is expected that the butyl acrylate market will remain stable and weak.

In summary, the acrylic acid market is maintaining a stable operation, while the upstream acrylic acid market is fluctuating within a range. The listed prices of production enterprises are fluctuating, and the listed prices of acrylic acid manufacturers are temporarily stable. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and the overall production capacity is at a low level with limited fluctuations. The downstream market’s enthusiasm for receiving goods needs to be improved, and long-term contracts are mainly executed. The short-term market may continue to consolidate and operate.

According to the data from the commodity market analysis system of the business community, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the terminal demand fell, and the hydrogen peroxide market fell. On September 16th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 816 yuan/ton, and on September 19th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 793 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86% in price.

Terminal demand drops, hydrogen peroxide market declines

After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the rigid demand of the terminal will return next time, the water volume of hydrogen peroxide purchased by the manufacturer will decline, and the bad news will suppress. The hydrogen peroxide market will decline, and the overall quotation will be 700-800 yuan/ton. On September 19th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region was around 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, while the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region was 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 880 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Fujian region is 1100 yuan/ton, and the market is stable.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that at the end of September, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals was weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to weaken in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has decreased after the holiday. As of September 18th, the average market price of soda ash was 1706 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the pre holiday price of 1736 yuan/ton on September 14th, a decrease of 1.73%, and a decrease of 6.26% compared to the previous month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been consolidating and declining after the holiday. On the supply side, the equipment of maintenance enterprises is gradually recovering, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has been improved, the market supply of goods has increased, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is relatively high; On the demand side, there is an expectation of cold repair in the terminal market. The downstream glass industry mainly consumes inventory, resulting in insufficient demand for soda ash. The market supply is strong and demand is weak, leading to a weak downward trend in soda ash prices. On September 18th, the price of soda ash in East China was lowered, and the mainstream market price for light soda ash was around 1400-1650 yuan/ton; The price of soda ash in Central China has been lowered, and the mainstream market price for light soda ash is around 1350-1550 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of glass continues to decline. On September 18th, the market average price was 14.10 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 0.70% compared to the market average price of 14.20 yuan/square meter on September 14th. The glass market has sufficient inventory, low downstream purchasing enthusiasm, poor market trading, obvious bearish sentiment in the market, and glass prices continue to operate weakly.

Future forecast: Currently, the operating rate of domestic soda ash plants is relatively high, and the inventory of spot soda ash plants is sufficient. The downstream glass industry continues to be weak, with insufficient demand support. The soda ash market trading is average, and the atmosphere in the market is wait-and-see. It is expected that soda ash will remain weak and stable in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.