This week, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 12th, the price of isooctanol was 7916.67 yuan/ton, which rebounded and increased by 1.50% compared to the price of 7800 yuan/ton on September 9th; Compared to September 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of isooctanol was 7983.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83%. This week, the price of isooctanol rebounded and rose. This week, the production of isooctanol units has gradually resumed, with an increase in isooctanol supply, an increase in downstream plasticizer DOP gross profit, an increase in DOP operating rate, an increase in demand for isooctanol, a double increase in isooctanol supply and demand, and a rebound in isooctanol prices.

Expected increase in isooctanol supply

In early September, there were many equipment shutdowns in isooctanol enterprises, and the original plan to restart isooctanol units in North China at the end of August was postponed to mid September. Several isooctanol enterprises stopped for maintenance in early September and are expected to resume operations in mid September. With the completion of the maintenance of the isooctanol equipment and the resumption of work, the expected supply of isooctanol in the future has increased, and there is still downward pressure on the price of isooctanol.

Expected increase in downstream plasticizer DOP start-up

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8501.25 yuan/ton, which rebounded and increased by 0.44% compared to the DOP price of 8463.75 yuan/ton on September 9th; Compared to the DOP price of 8726.25 yuan/ton on September 1st, it has decreased by 2.58%. DOP prices rebounded and rose this week. The price of isooctanol continues to decline, the profit margin of plasticizer equipment expands, and the gross profit of downstream DOP products increases compared to August. Driven by profits, downstream plasticizer companies are expected to increase their operating rates, leading to an increase in demand for isooctanol.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, the supply and demand of isooctanol market increased in September. In terms of supply, the number of isooctanol manufacturers operating has increased, leading to an increase in isooctanol supply; In terms of demand, plasticizer companies have increased their production, with a focus on purchasing essential isooctanol, leading to a rebound in demand for isooctanol; The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, and the cost support of isooctanol still exists. As the price of isooctanol approaches the cost line, the profit margin for isooctanol manufacturers is limited. Under cost support, both supply and demand have increased, and the future rise of isooctanol is weak. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and stabilize.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8296 yuan/ton on September 2, and the average price was 8251 yuan/ton on September 11, during which the quotation fell by 0.54%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10400 yuan/ton on September 2, and the average price was 10350 yuan/ton on September 11, during which the quotation fell by 0.48%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8225 yuan/ton on September 2, and the average price was 8200 yuan/ton on September 11, during which the quotation fell by 0.30%.

The price of polyethylene is running narrowly and weakly. The recent decline in international oil prices has weakened cost support, which is bearish for the polyethylene market. There are expectations of an increase in the supply side. According to data statistics, as of September 10th, the inventory of two barrels of plastic oil was 800000 tons, a decrease of 1.23% compared to the previous month and an increase of 15.94% year-on-year. Although there has been a decrease in the previous month, the year-on-year data has increased, and the pressure on the supply side is still present. The downstream of the demand side is in the peak demand season, and with the Mid Autumn Festival approaching, downstream factories are increasing their inventory replenishment behavior. However, overall support is limited, with rigid demand procurement as the main focus and low enthusiasm for intermediaries to enter the market.

On September 11th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 7891 yuan and closed at 7931 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan, with a high of 7935 yuan and a low of 7823 yuan, a decrease of 0.06%. The recent weak polyethylene futures market has suppressed the spot market.

There is an expectation of an increase on the supply side; Although downstream construction has increased, the recovery is slow, but overall support is limited. The supply-demand game is expected to have limited upward potential for polyethylene, with narrow range fluctuations being the main adjustment.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 10th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2125 yuan/ton, which is 2.21% lower than the reference average price of 2173 yuan/ton on September 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

The domestic urea market prices have fallen this week. As of September 10th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1840-1880 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1890 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1880 yuan/ton, and in Hubei region it is around 1900 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market is oversupplied. In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this week. In terms of demand, agriculture and industry maintain a focus on essential needs. Downstream purchases of urea are relatively cautious, with low price transactions being the main focus in the market.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market trend has been weak and downward recently, with a decrease in market inquiries and limited transactions. At present, the demand side has not been released yet, and the market has strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.

The market price of epichlorohydrin has slightly increased this week. As of September 6th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin in Shengyi Society is 8000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the beginning of this month (7987.50 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: Recently, the price of raw material propylene has decreased and the price of liquid chlorine has increased, resulting in a situation of mixed ups and downs in the raw material side. The market support for epichlorohydrin is still acceptable. The price of raw material glycerol has fallen slightly, and overall, the cost pressure has eased. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 6th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6938.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.43% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton).

Equipment situation: According to the overall operating rate of the epoxy chloropropane industry within the week, it was 50-60%.

Downstream demand side: Downstream epoxy resin rigid demand small orders are being followed up. With the rise in costs, manufacturers face increased cost pressure, and some companies are experiencing price increases. Early delivery orders are the main focus, and there is insufficient follow-up for new orders. The market center of gravity is changing steadily, with a moderate to strong trend.

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that short-term costs and supply side support are still acceptable, with downstream demand buying as the main focus, insufficient follow-up of new orders, and cautious procurement of raw materials. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market will operate steadily in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 2nd to 6th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2460 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 3.02% during the period, a month on month decline of 3.64%, and a year-on-year decline of 6.10%. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline, with a weak macro outlook. Domestic methanol supply has recovered, import volume remains high, and port methanol inventories have accumulated. In addition, some downstream markets are still in the recovery stage, and demand has not yet recovered to a high level. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a downturn.

As of the close on September 6th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2384 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2398 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2368 yuan/ton. It closed at 2371 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton or 0.55% from the previous trading day’s settlement, with a trading volume of 635388 lots and a holding volume of 788828 lots, with a daily increase of 16863.

As of June 6th, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2245-2250 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

Liaoning region/ 2720 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2400 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 2320-2325 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

In terms of cost, most coal mines maintain normal production and sales. At the end of last month, coal mines that were shut down due to completing monthly tasks gradually resumed normal production, and the overall coal supply level has rebounded. Some private mines adjust coal prices up and down based on sales, with a range of 10-20 yuan/ton, and there is no significant fluctuation in the overall price focus. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: the demand for acetic acid has increased; Downstream formaldehyde: Increased demand for formaldehyde; Downstream chloride: The maintenance plan for the East China plant has reduced the demand for chloride; Downstream dimethyl ether: reduced demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand is increasing. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the loss exceeds the recovery, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 5th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $346.00-347.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 108.00-109.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 341.00-342.00 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.

In the future forecast, the supply of goods will continue to be loose, and although traditional downstream production has increased, the magnitude is limited, which will have a certain drag on the market. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol market may mainly consolidate weakly.

Market Overview

Overall, the melamine market has shown weak fundamentals this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 4th, the reference price of melamine was 6750.00, a decrease of 0.37% compared to September 1st (6775.00). Under the support of the decrease in production capacity utilization rate in northern industries, the probability of market price stability has increased due to the shutdown or maintenance plan of some facilities in the north.

Overall, there is an expectation of a decrease in the utilization rate of melamine production capacity in the northern region, which supports manufacturers to raise prices.

Supply side

This week, domestic urea prices have continued to decline on a large scale, with most companies in mainstream regions such as Shandong, Hebei, Henan, and Anhui lowering their quotes by 30-40 yuan/ton. The ex factory price in Shandong has now fallen to 1890 yuan, and mainstream regions have officially entered the market starting from 2018. The transaction price in Inner Mongolia has fallen below 1800 yuan, and the outsourcing price in Xinjiang is as low as 1570-1600 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 5th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s urea was 2151.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.01% compared to the beginning of this month (2173.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of demand

The melamine market has recently cooled down, and from the perspective of demand and raw materials, the market has weak positive news and insufficient demand follow-up. It is reported that some sheet metal factories have recently reduced their operating load, and considering that the supply of melamine will increase in the later maintenance and restoration of multiple factories, downstream manufacturers and traders have reduced their demand for melamine procurement.

Overall, the decrease in local production capacity utilization rate of melamine has provided support for the market, but there is insufficient demand and raw material benefits, and the overall market atmosphere is average. It is expected that the short-term market situation will be mainly stable and fluctuating, and in the long run, the market will lack guiding factors and may mainly follow the market trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market has experienced a significant decline this week. Last Thursday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 7530 yuan/ton, and this Thursday’s average price was 6854 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 8.98% during the week.

The domestic isopropanol market has experienced a significant decline this week. The upstream acetone market is declining, with insufficient support from isopropanol, and the price of acetone is decreasing. In terms of demand, the market performance is average, with a strong wait-and-see attitude within the market. Downstream inquiries are average, and there is a strong need to purchase goods. Actual orders are cautious. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6750-6800 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6900 yuan/ton, while in the South China region, the price is around 7100 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone has fallen this week. Last Thursday, the average price of acetone was 6447.5 yuan/ton, and this Thursday’s average price was 5957.5 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 7.6%. At present, the domestic acetone market price has fallen to a low level, and there has been an increase in inquiries from traders entering the market. The intention to sell at a lower price has weakened, and it is understood that the market transaction situation is average. It is expected that the acetone market will maintain stable operation in the short term.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market fell first and then rose this week, indicating an overall decline in prices. Last Thursday, the average domestic propylene price was 6968.25 yuan/ton, and this Thursday’s average price is 6938.25 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.43%. At present, the inventory of enterprises is controllable, and downstream purchases are made according to demand. It is expected that the market will experience slight fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price has dropped significantly this week. The acetone market continues to decline, while the propylene market price has decreased, resulting in poor cost support. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average, with a focus on essential needs. It is expected that the isopropanol market will weaken and consolidate in the short term.

Fall first and then rise in August

The price of ethylene glycol began to decline in September. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of September 4th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.03% from September 1st. The prices in each region are as follows:

On September 4, 2024, the price of ethylene glycol at the port declined, with an early operating price range of 4640-4670 yuan/ton. In the afternoon session, it followed the downward trend of the market, with a slight downward shift in the price range. The spot basis slightly strengthened, especially in recent times when the contract basis has strengthened significantly. On September 4, the 01 contract had a paper cargo basis quotation of+28 to+34 for this week; The base price for September is 33-42 yuan/ton.

On September 4th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol slightly loosened, with prices in the northwest region around 4250 yuan/ton, including taxes, before leaving the factory.

On September 3, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $559/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $576/ton. The domestic landed price has slightly increased.

List of August Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory Data

As of September 2, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 620200 tons, an increase of 3900 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 616300 tons on August 1.

The total planned arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China this week (September 2nd to September 8th) is about 34000 tons; Among them, the arrival quantity in Zhangjiagang is about 9000 tons, the arrival quantity at Taicang Port is about 6000 tons, the arrival quantity in Ningbo is about 19000 tons, and the arrival quantity in Shanghai is about 0 tons.

On September 4th, the price of ethylene glycol moved downwards due to:

On the news of the resumption of crude oil supply from Libya, coupled with OPEC+’s previous statement to increase production as planned, crude oil prices plummeted, and the polyester sector as a whole saw a significant decline, especially in PTA/short fiber/PET bottle flakes.

Future expectations

At present, the absolute amount of explicit inventory in ports is still relatively low. This provides some support for the price of ethylene glycol.

However, other products in the polyester sector have basically fallen below the previous fluctuation range, forming a strong negative sentiment towards the relatively strong ethylene glycol price. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of 8 sulfur has increased. On August 31st, the average ex factory price of sulfur in the market was 1435.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.92% compared to the average ex factory price of 1206.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market is on the rise this month. The manufacturer’s shipments are smooth, and the price of sulfur is rising accordingly; After a series of early stages of price increases, traders’ attitudes towards subsequent trends gradually turned cautious, market activity decreased, and the trading atmosphere became quiet.

2、 Market analysis

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain:

The downstream sulfuric acid market remained stable and upward in August, with a market price of 350.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 400.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, representing a 14.29% increase during the month. The rise in sulfur prices is favorable for the rise in the sulfuric acid market. Downstream consumers mainly digest their previous inventory and follow up on sulfuric acid purchases as needed. Acid companies’ quotations are mostly stable and wait-and-see.

3、 Future forecast

The sulfur analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the sulfur enterprise’s equipment is operating normally, and the market supply is sufficient. We are waiting for the arrival of autumn, and the autumn fertilizer market is gradually developing. Downstream production may increase, and the market trading atmosphere will improve. It is expected that the sulfur market will consolidate and operate in September.

Today (September 2nd), the closing price of PTA main futures TA2501 was 5140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 274 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.06%, with a settlement price of 5248 yuan/ton and a daily increase of 174465 lots. The spot price followed the decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average spot price of PTA in East China was 5223 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% from the previous trading day.

The decline in crude oil prices has led to a collapse in PTA cost support. On August 30th, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $73.55 per barrel, a decrease of $2.36 or 3.1%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $76.93 per barrel, a decrease of $1.89 or 2.4%.

The promotion of demand for polyester during the peak season is slow, and the short-term positive driving effect brought by downstream low-priced procurement is not obvious, resulting in a low intention to receive goods. Yesterday, the 1.2 million ton PTA plant in East China was shut down for maintenance, but the PTA industry’s operating rate remained at a high level around 85%, and there was ample short-term supply of goods.

Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that PTA is still facing pressure from accumulated inventory, and the bearish sentiment in the commodity market is strong, which poses significant resistance to PTA’s rise. In the short term, prices will continue to operate weakly. As the traditional consumption peak season approaches, the downstream polyester operating load rate and terminal weaving machine operating rate are increasing, and there are still plans to put new polyester production capacity into operation. The expectation of demand recovery will benefit the market mentality.