According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has fluctuated slightly downward since August. As of August 19th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.72% from the beginning of the month. Polyester staple fiber factories have reduced production to maintain prices, but cost adjustments have weakened, coupled with insufficient demand support, which has dragged down the prices of polyester staple fibers.

In the future, the trend of US oil destocking in the crude oil market is not as expected, and the support for the oil market is limited. We still need to be vigilant about changes in the geopolitical situation, and oil prices may remain stable. As of August 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.65 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $79.68 per barrel. Recently, the overall supply capacity of PX in Asia has been at a high level, coupled with the continued shutdown plans of some PTA plants in China, resulting in a consolidation of PX prices at a low level.

The domestic PTA market has fluctuated and adjusted weakly, with the average spot price of PTA in East China at 5446 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.58% from the beginning of the month. In terms of supply, the current operating rate of the PTA industry in China is around 86%, maintaining a high level, and the overall supply of goods is still abundant.

Terminal demand is still in the off-season, and finished product inventory is still mainly accumulated. Downstream enterprises are cautious about raw material procurement, mainly focusing on sporadic and essential purchases. The improvement in autumn and winter orders is limited, and the overall performance is poor. Currently, the operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remains around 63%. With the gradual reduction of high temperature weather and the increase in downstream production, the demand for polyester staple fibers may increase slightly.

Business analysts believe that although polyester staple fiber factories continue to reduce production, there is a lack of highlights in the fundamentals, with cost declines and weak demand. It is expected that polyester staple fiber prices will continue to decline.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has declined this week. As of August 16th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 10900 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.11% compared to the beginning of this month (11250 yuan/ton).

Supply side: Recently, due to the continuous rise in raw material sulfuric acid prices, the production costs of enterprises have been under pressure, and the market trend of hydrogen fluoride has declined. The mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is 10500-11500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises’ equipment is still parked and waiting for the market. The release of hydrofluoric acid production is limited, and the industry’s profits are low, resulting in increased losses.

Cost side: The domestic fluorite prices have remained weak and stable this week, with some manufacturers experiencing price declines. As of August 16th, the benchmark price of fluorite in Shengyi Society was 3462.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.59% compared to the beginning of this month (3591.25 yuan/ton). The domestic fluorite industry is in a game situation, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Some mines have conducted safety hazard inspections, making it more difficult for fluorite mines to operate. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and the supply of fluorite sources is still tight. The price trend is declining.

On the demand side: During the off-season of demand, the refrigerant market continues to be in a stalemate due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, the market production demand weakens. In addition, the recent rainy weather has led to poor inventory of refrigerant companies, and they are not actively purchasing upstream products. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the market for hydrofluoric acid is weak and difficult to change.

Market forecast: Upstream raw material fluorite supply remains tight; The price of sulfuric acid continues to rise, and the production cost pressure of hydrofluoric acid is significant. The downstream refrigerant industry has entered the off-season with weak demand, which has weakened the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will continue to weaken in the later period.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since August, terminal demand has been flat, and the hydrogen peroxide market has been weakly declining. On August 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 913 yuan/ton, and on August 15th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.74% in price.

Terminal demand remains flat, hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline

Since August, the terminal paper industry has been operating weakly, with manufacturers purchasing only moderate amounts of hydrogen peroxide, dominated by negative factors. The hydrogen peroxide market has been weak and declining, with an overall quotation of 800-960 yuan/ton. Among them, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is about 800 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 50 yuan/ton, and the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 800 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 30 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 960 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hunan region is 1100 yuan/ton, and the market is stable.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that in late August, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals will remain weak, and the future market for hydrogen peroxide will continue to be dominated by a weak downward trend.

1、 Price trend

On August 9th, the domestic adipic acid market was sluggish. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 9th, adipic acid was 9325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 158 yuan/ton or 1.84% from last week. The focus of market trading has shifted downwards. At present, the market price range for adipic acid is between 8600-9500 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

Cost aspect:

The zero selling price of refined oil has been lowered again in this round. The retail price in 2024 has gone through seven upward adjustments, five downward adjustments, and three stranded adjustments. The negative value of crude oil change rate has increased during the cycle, which has suppressed the entire domestic chemical market. Recently, the price of pure benzene has fallen, and the market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone. In the short term, the cost of cyclohexanone is affected by negative factors. The main refinery prices have been lowered, and the market trading price center is gradually decreasing.

Supply side:

From the perspective of market supply, in terms of equipment, the domestic adipic acid production load this week is around 70%, which has increased compared to last week. Price may be expected to decrease. Due to weak demand, the manufacturer’s shipment speed has slowed down. At present, there is a lack of favorable guidance on the supply side.

Demand side:

Adipic acid is relatively weak downstream. Terminal procurement urgently needs support, with a shortage of orders. Taking PA66 as an example, the market maintains a weak trend. Currently, the market price of PA66 is around 20433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.93% from August 1st. In addition, the sluggish market performance of caprolactam and TPU in other downstream fields, coupled with weak demand, is an important factor restricting the fundamental improvement of adipic acid.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society believes that on the cost side, the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States is coming to an end, and coupled with poor economic data performance, fundamental concerns may cause short-term fluctuations in crude oil. The prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone have fallen, and the cost side is affected by negative factors, resulting in a decline in the price of adipic acid. It is expected that the short-term market price of adipic acid will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has declined this week. As of August 9th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.88% compared to the beginning of this month (11300.00 yuan/ton).

Supply side: Recently, due to the continuous rise in raw material sulfuric acid prices, the production costs of enterprises have been under pressure, and the market trend of hydrogen fluoride has declined. The mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is 10500-11500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises’ equipment is still parked and waiting for the market. The release of hydrofluoric acid production is limited, and the industry’s profits are low, resulting in increased losses.

Cost side: The domestic fluorite prices have remained weak and stable this week, with some manufacturers experiencing price declines. As of August 9th, the benchmark price of fluorite in Shengyi Society was 3535.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.57% compared to the beginning of this month (3591.25 yuan/ton). The domestic fluorite industry is greatly affected by the off-season, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department will carry out rectification of fluorite mines in the near future, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Some mines have conducted safety hazard inspections, making it more difficult for fluorite mines to operate. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and the decline in fluorite prices is restricted.

On the demand side: During the off-season of demand, the refrigerant market has weak production, coupled with the normal impact of quotas, resulting in weak terminal demand. The enthusiasm for procurement has declined, mainly focusing on essential purchases.

Market forecast: Upstream raw material fluorite enterprises face many difficulties in starting production in the near future, but fluorite supply is still available; The price of sulfuric acid continues to rise, and the production cost pressure of hydrofluoric acid is significant. The downstream refrigerant industry has entered the off-season with weak demand, which has weakened the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will continue to weaken in the later period.

Market Overview

This week, the trading atmosphere in the melamine market was cold, and prices continued to decline weakly, but the decline has slowed down to some extent. As of the time of writing, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society is 6800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (6825.00 yuan/ton). Manufacturers mainly focus on executing advance orders, with weak willingness to adjust prices. In the short term, there is a lack of guidance in the market, and the market situation appears to be stagnant. Next week, due to the increase in production enterprises and the lack of expected improvement in downstream demand, prices may continue to remain weak.

Supply side

The downward trend of domestic urea prices is expanding! The mainstream market prices have all fallen across the board, with drops ranging from 30-60 yuan/ton! At present, the mainstream low-end factory price is 2020-2030 yuan/ton, which has fallen below the level of late July. There is a probability that low-end transactions will increase, but if the market stabilizes, more transactions from more companies are needed. Therefore, we need to observe and wait in the near future, especially paying attention to the volume of low-priced transactions.

In terms of demand

Recently, the melamine market has cooled down, and demand has been moderately followed up. It is reported that some sheet metal factories have recently reduced their operating load, and considering that the supply of melamine will increase in the later maintenance and restoration of multiple factories, downstream manufacturers and traders have reduced their demand for melamine procurement.

This week’s melamine production was 30800 tons, a decrease of 2.22% compared to last week. Next week, some maintenance facilities in Anhui, Shandong, and Sichuan will gradually resume shipments, and the supply of melamine may increase.

Overall

Cost side support still exists, and there are certain favorable factors in supply and demand. It is expected that the melamine market will continue to decline in the short term, with a price range of 6100-6400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to new news changes such as factory start-up adjustments and demand follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 7th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.80% from the reference average price of 2329 yuan/ton on August 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have weakened and fallen. As of August 7th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2100-2140 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2110 yuan/ton, and in Henan region it is around 2120 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market currently has a relatively sufficient supply, with oversupply being the main factor. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains rigid procurement, while industrial demand remains weak. The operating rate and market of downstream compound fertilizers remain stable, with a focus on on-demand procurement of urea and mostly low-priced transactions.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market trend has been weak and downward recently, with poor market inquiries and a light trading atmosphere. The market supply is sufficient, and the mentality of buying up and not buying down has increased. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market fell on August 6th. The average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97% from the previous trading day, with prices ranging from 7600-7750 yuan/ton, a general decrease of 50-100 yuan/ton.

The overall trend of the commodity market continues to be weak, and pessimistic sentiment remains strong. The cost support is insufficient due to the significant decline in raw materials. Among them, the average price of PTA spot market in East China is 5657 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous trading day. Downstream is in the traditional off-season, with insufficient orders and cautious follow-up of buying orders, resulting in a sluggish market transaction volume.

Business analysts believe that polyester staple fiber production factories are still in a production reduction cycle, but under the downward pressure of costs and demand, it is expected that the polyester staple fiber market will continue to operate weakly.

Recently (7.29-8.5), the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly declined. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 5th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12% from 15070 yuan/ton on July 29th. The price of raw material butadiene has fallen slightly from a high level; Shunding rubber production continues to remain low; Downstream tire production has slightly rebounded, overall inquiries are cautious, and there is resistance to high priced sources. Shunding rubber futures have fallen slightly from their high levels, and market trading has been flat. On August 5th, PetroChina Northeast and East China Sales Companies lowered the ex factory price of butadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton, leading to a growing bearish sentiment in the market.

Recently (7.29-8.5), the price of butadiene has fallen from a high level, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased, but overall there is still some support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 5th, the price of butadiene was 12662 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% from 12900 yuan/ton on July 29th.

Recently (7.29-8.5), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has continued to maintain a low level, and as of August 5th, the construction of butadiene rubber in China is around 5.5%. However, some maintenance devices are scheduled to restart in mid August, and the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to slightly increase in the later period.

Demand side: Downstream tire production has slightly rebounded, and demand is supported by weak demand in the butadiene rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources of goods. As of August 1st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.6%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will fall from a high level, and the cost center of butadiene rubber will slightly decrease; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, but some units are planned to restart in the later stage, and the supply side is expected to increase in the later stage; Recently, downstream tire companies have seen a slight increase in production, but they are cautious about purchasing Shunding rubber. Overall, the Shunding rubber market is still weak and mainly declining in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 29th to August 2nd (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2500 yuan/ton to 2515 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.60% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.76%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.40%. The domestic methanol market has undergone a narrow consolidation. Due to weak demand, there is currently no significant positive news to boost the market. The overall delivery volume in the mainland market is average, and coupled with the impact of weather factors on transportation, inventory has accumulated in the mainland. However, companies do not have any pressure to ship, and the market performance is stagnant.

As of the close on August 2nd, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2495 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2516 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2487 yuan/ton. It closed at 2505 yuan/ton at the end of the day, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.40%. The trading volume was 491828 lots, and the position was 626831 lots, with a daily increase of -23229.

As of 8.2, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2260-2270 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

Liaoning region/ 2700 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2455 yuan/ton

Henan region/ Factory reference: 2320-2325 yuan/ton, factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

In terms of cost and supply, global coal supply remains stable, while domestic imports have increased. The increase in domestic demand is insufficient to support coal prices at a high level; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small, and the terminal is currently mainly supplemented by long-term agreements, replenishing inventory according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is wait-and-see. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: MTBE demand is increasing; Downstream formaldehyde: reduced demand for formaldehyde; Downstream dimethyl ether: reduced demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chloride: The load of the North China unit is still unstable, and the demand for chloride has decreased; Downstream acetic acid: Decreased demand for acetic acid. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the utilization rate of production capacity has increased. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of August 1st, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was between $345-346 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 101-102 cents/gallon, up 1 cent/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 323-324 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Rise and fall

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 345-346 USD/ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe and America/ American Gulf/ 101-102 cents per gallon/ 1 cent/gallon

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 323-324 euros/ton/ -2 euros per ton

Market forecast: Early maintenance equipment will gradually resume, and supply may increase significantly; In terms of demand, downstream consumption lacks momentum, making it difficult to break the deadlock. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market will mainly focus on consolidation.