1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in mid to late June. As of June 27th, the market average price was 2090 yuan/ton. Compared with the market average price of 2170 yuan/ton on June 11th, the price decreased by 3.69% and increased by 6.63% compared to the same period last year. On June 27th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 107.18, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 43.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 69.72% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of soda ash was weak and declined in the middle and late stages. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, with more market entry and on-demand follow-up, limited market trading, poor enterprise shipments, continuous accumulation of inventory, oversupply and mutual love, and continuous decline in soda ash prices. As of June 27, 2024, the prices of soda ash in East China have mainly stabilized, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 2000-2250 yuan/ton. The prices of soda ash in Central China have also stabilized, with mainstream market quotations for light soda ash around 1900-2100 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, glass prices first rose and then fell in the middle and late stages. On June 11th, the market average price was 20.20 yuan/square meter, and on June 27th, the market average price was 19.82 yuan/square meter, with a price drop of 1.88%. Downstream procurement of glass is on demand, with limited market support.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 25th week of 2024 (6.17-6.21), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling include PVC (-1.28%), light soda ash (-0.71%), and baking soda (-0.51%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.43%..

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the current price of pure alkali is temporarily stable, with slight fluctuations in spot alkali plant equipment, and a high utilization rate of supply capacity. Downstream demand is weak, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. Overall, it is expected that soda ash may be weakly consolidated in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently (6.17-6.26), the domestic price of ethyl acetate has slightly decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of the 26th, the price of ethyl acetate remained at 6250 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 0.53% during the cycle. Due to the decrease in upstream prices and insufficient cost support, the market for ethyl acetate has followed suit.

Market analysis: The ethyl acetate market has been weak and downward in recent times. On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity is at a medium to low level, the supplier’s inventory is under pressure, and the manufacturer maintains shipment; On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid is weak and declining, with insufficient cost support. The upstream market is transmitted to the terminal market, affecting downstream purchasing. Downstream acceptance of high priced goods is generally high, and entry into the market requires purchasing. Under the supply-demand game, the price of ethyl acetate has slightly decreased.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid price of ethyl acetate has increased, with insufficient cost support. The production and sales of suppliers are relatively balanced, and the downstream follows up on demand. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and it is expected that the ethyl acetate market will remain stable in the short term. Specific attention will be paid to the implementation of prices for raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6100-6350 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 25th, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market was referenced at 8932.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75% compared to last Thursday (June 20th).

Recently, the market for epoxy propane has declined. Recently, the price of propylene raw materials has slightly rebounded after a decline, while the price of liquid chlorine raw materials has fluctuated, providing some support for the cost side. Part of the equipment on the supply side fluctuates, and the demand side performs mediocrely. Downstream customers tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and follow the market with caution in procurement. Holders are under pressure to ship, resulting in a downward trend in epoxy propane prices.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of raw material propylene has slightly rebounded after a recent decline, which still provides support for the epoxy propane market.

Future Market Forecast:

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost support is still acceptable, and the supply side pressure is average. Downstream demand is mainly buying, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may remain stagnant and operate, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of June 24th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4360 yuan/ton. The DMF market was mainly weak, with prices slightly dropping compared to the previous day. Currently, the market price is around 4400 yuan/ton, and overall market demand is weak, with a cold trading atmosphere

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market fell first and then rose this week (June 17-21). As of June 21, the average PTA market price in East China was 5976 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to the beginning of the week.

Starting from late June, there are plans to restart multiple sets of PTA devices, and the market’s expectation of abundant PTA supply continues to increase. There is a possibility of further reduction in downstream polyester production, which strengthens the pressure of PTA oversupply and concerns about PTA demand. With the weakening of supply and demand, the PTA market fell at the beginning of the week. However, during the traditional peak demand season, coupled with OPEC+nurturing oil prices, and the ongoing tension in the Middle East, crude oil continues to rebound, and costs still provide strong support for PTA. In addition, with the significant increase in polyester sales and slight adjustments in production, the demand for PTA is relatively stable, resulting in a slight rebound in prices.

Looking ahead to the future, PTA will restart its production capacity at the end of the month, with plans to restart over 7 million tons of maintenance equipment next week, which may enter the stage of accumulating inventory. The current operating rate of the PTA industry is around 88%, and with the gradual restart of the equipment, the operating rate will further increase.

EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.55 million barrels last week, and finished oil products were also presented to the Kugge Bureau. Combined with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil futures prices continue to strengthen. As of June 20th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $81.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $85.71 per barrel. At present, geopolitical instability still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. The peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, but the continued rise of crude oil remains to be observed. Overall, high crude oil prices are mainly volatile.

The demand for downstream polyester products has rebounded in stages, with industry production slightly rising to over 88%. The terminal textile market is sluggish, with some weaving and texturing factories planning to shut down for vacation after consuming raw materials. It is expected that downstream weaving and texturing factories will start operating or decline next week. At the end of the month, as the downstream replenishment cycle approaches, some downstream factories may stock up appropriately next week.

Business Society analysts believe that the restart of PTA devices may continue to increase production, limiting the increase in PTA prices. We still need to pay attention to the implementation of downstream polyester factories reducing production and changes in crude oil prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market has recently stopped falling and rebounded. As of June 20th, the average PTA market price in East China was 5968 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% compared to the 18th. The warm atmosphere in the commodity market has triggered resonance, and in addition, an unplanned short stop of a 1.2 million ton PTA plant in the northwest has led to an increase in the PTA market.

In the future, in terms of PTA supply, multiple sets of PTA devices will restart in late June. Among them, a set of 2.5 million ton PTA devices in East China is planned to restart on June 21, a set of 1.5 million ton PTA devices is planned to restart on June 23, and a set of 2.5 million ton PTA devices in South China is planned to restart on June 25. PTA production may increase, limiting price increases.

Recently, the crude oil market has been volatile and rising, and the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks. The supply and demand situation is favorable for the oil market. In addition, with the continuous recovery of the Chinese economy and the peak oil consumption season in North America, multiple favorable factors support the upward trend of international oil prices. As of June 19th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $85.07 per barrel. Short term fluctuations in crude oil prices are the main factor, and support for PTA costs is still ongoing.

In the downstream polyester industry, some polyester products have been promoted in large quantities with significant effects, and the operating rate has slightly increased to over 88%. The market believes that the probability of polyester factories reducing production is reduced, so the demand side is relatively stable. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is currently stable at around 71%. Due to factors such as high temperatures and off-season, some downstream factories may reduce their load operations, resulting in a decrease in terminal demand.

Overall, analysts from Business Society believe that the PTA maintenance equipment will be restarted next week, which will further increase domestic PTA production. It is still necessary to pay attention to whether polyester factories will continue to reduce production and changes in PTA demand. Short term PTA is expected to lack bullish guidance and prices may slightly decline.

Since June, the butadiene rubber market has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 18th, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 15570 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.50% from 14090 yuan/ton in early June. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong; The production of butadiene rubber continues to remain low; Downstream tire production has recently declined, with weak purchases of butadiene rubber and high levels of butadiene futures, driving a strong market atmosphere.

Since June, the price of butadiene has risen significantly, with strong support for the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 18th, the price of butadiene was 13650 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.95% from 11875 yuan/ton in early June.

Since June, the production of domestic butadiene rubber plants has continued to remain at a low level, and as of June 18th, the production of domestic butadiene rubber has been around 5.3%.

Demand side: Since mid June, downstream tire production has significantly decreased, and in the short term, demand will face some drag on the butadiene rubber market. As of June 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 75%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.2%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong; The production of butadiene rubber remains low, and the market supply is tight; At present, downstream tire companies have seen a significant decline in production, which has dragged down the production of butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market has remained strong in the near future under the support of cost and low production. We still need to pay attention to the downstream stocking situation in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from June 10th to 17th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6007 yuan/ton to 6032 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.42%, a month on month decrease of 0.29%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.26%. The price of raw corn is pushing up, and the cost of grain for enterprises is increasing, providing price support. Due to increased equipment maintenance in some regions, there has been a situation of spot installation, resulting in a tight supply. However, the trend of oversupply has continued, with flat trading volume and narrow fluctuations in the overall price of domestic ethanol market.

On the cost side, currently available spot inventory is low, breeding profits are increasing, supply is tightening, and the overall domestic corn market is operating strongly. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. Heilongjiang Hongzhan Huanan Factory was shut down for maintenance in mid June, Guangxi Jinyuan was shut down for full line maintenance on June 12, Jilin Fuel Ethanol underwent maintenance in early July, Wanli Runda was shut down for maintenance in mid July, and Guotou Yushu Factory underwent maintenance in mid to late July. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, Baijiu is purchased in the off-season, and the demand is weak; The downstream construction of ethyl acetate rose slightly. After the Dragon Boat Festival, ethyl acetate enterprises had the expectation of centralized procurement; The impact of compliance policies on ethanol gasoline refining is gradually weakening, and major purchasing companies have resumed procurement operations. In addition, the usage rate of in vehicle air conditioning will increase from June, leading to a rebound in gasoline demand. The short-term demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

The future market forecast shows that the current cost side and supply side are supported by favorable factors, and Baijiu and chemical procurement are not good. Supply and demand game. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly consolidate.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has fallen this week. As of June 14th, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37% from the price of 8187.5 yuan/ton on June 7th; Compared to the beginning of the month, the price of 8187.5 yuan/ton has decreased by 1.37%.

Supply side: Stable device operation, tight supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride units is temporarily stable, while the operation of Anhui Tongling ortho phthalic anhydride equipment is normal. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride unit of Xinyang Group is stable, and the maintenance of Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride equipment has resulted in a domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate of about 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. This week, the price of industrial naphthalene has fallen, and the market of naphthalene ortho phthalic anhydride has fallen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride.

On the demand side, the trend of on-demand procurement in the DOP market is declining

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 14th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 10250 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 1.44% compared to the DOP price of 10400 yuan/ton on June 7th. The market for plasticizer raw material phthalic anhydride has declined, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, plasticizer DOP enterprises are operating steadily, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is sufficient. Downstream construction is expected to rise, while demand is expected to rebound. The support for the rise of plasticizers still exists.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in the future, the trend of crude oil prices has been fluctuating and rising recently, while the high price of ortho xylene has temporarily stabilized, and the cost support for phthalic anhydride still exists; The downstream DOP market is fluctuating and falling, and the demand for plasticizers is falling. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 13th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6500 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 1.52% compared to the reference average price of 6600 yuan/ton on June 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 13th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6766 yuan/ton, which is 6813 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on June 1st. This week, the price of wet process phosphoric acid in China decreased by 0.73%.

2、 Market analysis

Entering June, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices fluctuated and fell. As of June 13th, the market price for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6400-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6250-6800 yuan/ton.

Cost side

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. Entering June, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market is weak and declining. The market transaction atmosphere is poor, downstream purchases are priced down, and manufacturers mainly place early orders. At present, bearish sentiment is dominant in the market, and it is expected that domestic yellow phosphorus prices will remain weak and consolidate in the short term.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. Recently, the market price of phosphate ore has remained stable. The inquiry atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the pace of phosphate ore shipments in some areas is clear, with a good mentality among the operators. It is expected that the short-term domestic phosphate ore market will remain stable with minor adjustments.

Supply and demand side

At present, the phosphoric acid market has sufficient supply and a moderate trading atmosphere. The downstream demand for phosphoric acid is mainly for rigid procurement, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The mentality of buying up instead of buying down has increased, and the terminal demand needs to be improved. Manufacturers and distributors can flexibly adjust prices, with a single negotiation being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the phosphoric acid market has been operating weakly recently. At present, there is insufficient support for costs and demand, and the market is mainly bearish, making it difficult for the short-term market to improve. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will continue to be weak and consolidate. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the raw material market.