The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 30th, the quotation for isooctanol was 9910 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.59% from the fluctuation of isooctanol price of 9660 yuan/ton on May 1st. In May, the price of isooctanol was at the bottom of the market, and there was limited room for its decline. Since the domestic isooctanol market hit bottom in mid April, the price center of isooctanol has slowly shifted upwards. From the perspective of raw materials, the price of propylene has stabilized at a high level, while the cost support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen; From the demand side, in May, downstream plasticizers and isooctyl acrylate units took turns undergoing maintenance, resulting in low sustainability of buying and consolidation of isooctyl alcohol. The market for isooctanol lacks continuous upward momentum, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated slightly.

Strong consolidation of propylene prices in May

According to the propylene commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 30th, the propylene price was quoted at 6860.60 yuan/ton, which is a volatile increase of 0.88% compared to the propylene price of 6800.60 yuan/ton on May 1st. Crude oil prices fluctuate and consolidate, while propylene cost support still exists. In May, propylene prices fluctuate and consolidate; The shutdown of propylene production units has dragged down the market, resulting in a decrease in downstream production of propylene. Downstream customers are in urgent need of procurement, and propylene manufacturers have average shipments. The supply and demand of the propylene market are weak, and propylene prices are consolidating strongly.

Downstream fluctuations and increases in the isooctanol industry chain in May

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the isooctanol industry chain saw a full rise in May. The upstream propylene price has slightly increased, and downstream products in the isooctanol industry chain have all experienced varying degrees of increase. The demand for isooctanol has increased, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in May. Downstream demand is rising, and the momentum for the rise of isooctanol in the future is increasing.

Future expectations

According to analysts from Business Society’s octanol product data, in terms of cost, propylene prices are consolidating strongly, while the cost support for isooctanol still exists; On the supply side, the inventory of isooctanol manufacturers is low, and manufacturers are actively shipping, resulting in sufficient supply of isooctanol; In terms of demand, downstream product prices of isooctanol fluctuated and increased in May, leading to increased support for downstream demand. In the future, with sufficient supply and increased demand support for isooctanol, cost support still exists, and it is expected that the price of octanol will fluctuate strongly and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 29th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% compared to the price on May 1st.

The market price of melamine fluctuated slightly in May. In the first half of the year, the market supply was sufficient, but downstream production was low. Small orders were mainly followed up on demand, and new business transactions were lukewarm. The market atmosphere was weak, but the price of raw material urea rose, cost pressure rose, and manufacturers had weak intentions to sell low. The market remained stable and under pressure. In the middle and late stages, the price of raw material urea continued to rise, and cost pressure continued to increase. Some export orders were still supported, supporting enterprises to raise prices. Approaching the end of the month, cost pressure still exists, but domestic downstream demand is weak, market high prices and weak transactions, and the market is showing signs of weakness.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of urea on May 28th was 2494.17, an increase of 2.4% compared to May 1st (2435.83). The urea raw material market showed a strong trend in May, with significant cost pressure on melamine.

Future Market Forecast:

Business Society’s melamine analyst believes that the current sluggish domestic downstream demand in the melamine market is dragging down the market, and there may still be no significant improvement in demand in the short term, which may still have constraints on the market. But the price of raw material urea is high, and the cost of melamine is under pressure, with manufacturers mainly raising prices. It is expected that in the short term, the cost demand game may continue, and the melamine market situation may remain slightly weak. More attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

In May, the domestic PA66 market showed a strong consolidation and then fell. The decline in spot prices is concentrated in the latter half of the year. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on May 29th, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 21600 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -5.68% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the cost side:

In the first half of May, adipic acid was supported by the strengthening of the raw material pure benzene, and the strong cost side supported the market. But as the supply increases, the pressure on adipic acid from the supply side gradually becomes more prominent. The support for PA66 fluctuates as it rises first and then falls. At the same time, the news of a price drop of 1500 yuan/ton by overseas giant NVIDIA in June in the second half of the month has impacted the market in terms of hexamethylene diamine. Coupled with the previous high prices, the focus of the hexamethylene diamine market has significantly fallen due to the dual impact; Overall, the support of costs for the PA66 market has weakened.

In terms of supply:

The operating rate of domestic PA66 production lines remained stable with little movement throughout May. The overall industry load is around 70%. The production of the enterprise is stable, and the accumulation of inventory is average. In the second half of the month, suppliers generally lowered their factory prices, and the support gradually weakened.

In terms of demand:

In May, textile, electrical, and modification enterprises followed a routine in stocking and consumption, while most of the pick-up operations were focused on production. The main force of on-site trading maintains a strong demand for follow-up. In the second half of the month, with the decline of spot prices, the buyer camp is cautious and resistant to high priced sources. The demand side has average support for PA66.

Future Market Forecast

In May, the spot price of PA66 fell from a high level. The raw material market has seen a decline in support for the cost side of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a horizontal load and stable supply. The demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is average. It is expected that the PA66 market will continue to operate weakly in the future.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in May, the price of stainless steel first fell and then increased. As of the end of the month, the spot price of stainless steel was 13195.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from the beginning of the month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.08%. Upstream nickel showed a strong overall trend in May. As of the end of the month, the spot nickel quotation was 143583.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.69% from the beginning of the month and a year-on-year decrease of 25.74%.

Macro level

The US CPI in April increased by 3.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI growth rate in April decreased from 0.4% in March to 0.3% month on month, marking the first decline in six months and remaining unchanged from the expected 0.3%. This data has strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in September. In addition, domestic real estate policies are relatively active. Hangzhou and Xi’an have lifted purchase restrictions, and the national level has issued heavyweight support policies, such as reducing the down payment ratio, canceling the lower limit of real estate interest rates, and lowering housing provident fund loan interest rates, further promoting the rise of non-ferrous metals. However, in late May, the latest meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve conveyed a hawkish attitude, suggesting that there is still a possibility of future interest rate hikes, which led to a strong rebound in the US dollar index and put pressure on colored prices.

Nickel fundamental surface

Supply side

The fourth largest nickel producing country in the world, New Caledonia, has experienced unrest, forcing the local nickel wet intermediate smelting project to stop production, and the normal operation of mines has also been affected, with almost no production. In addition, the approval of Indonesian nickel mines did not meet expectations. Currently, the three-year approval quota for Indonesian nickel mines by RKAB is 217.6 million wet tons, accounting for approximately 26.21% of the total number of applications approved. The circulation resources of Indonesian nickel mines are relatively scarce. The tight availability of nickel iron circulating resources, combined with these news factors, has helped push nickel prices to a seven month high. There are still electroplating nickel projects in China and Indonesia that are put into operation, and pure nickel production will continue to grow rapidly. The expectation of nickel oversupply remains unchanged, and global inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected that the production in April will further increase to 25900 tons, a month on month increase of 4%. Some nickel manufacturers are still in the stage of increasing production. At the same time, manufacturers that reduced production in March are expected to resume production in April, and the production of newly invested nickel plates is also gradually increasing.

LME nickel inventory slightly increased

As shown in the above figure, in May, LME nickel inventory has slightly increased, as of the end of the month, LME nickel inventory is 83730 tons, up 6.63% from the beginning of the month and 30.51% from the beginning of the year.

On the demand side: Alloy is the main downstream of pure nickel, and there is a very good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Enterprises are buying at low prices. The stainless steel factory will resume production in May. The demand for electroplating is relatively stable. The production schedule of the new energy ternary system declined in May.

Stainless steel basic surface

Since May, the stainless steel market has rebounded after a decline. After the May Day holiday, the replenishment progress of the stainless steel market was less than expected, and there was a certain accumulation of market inventory. Subsequently, under the influence of the gradual decline in futures trading, the stainless steel market price followed the trend of weakening and adjustment. Under the influence of Putin’s visit to China and frequent geopolitical conflicts in mid to late October, the overall strength of the non-ferrous metal market has been dominant, with raw material nickel continuing to rise, driving the willingness of the stainless steel market to explore price increases. Although the rise in prices has driven some terminals to accept goods, the overall focus is still on receiving goods in demand, with high-level transactions hindered and the market under pressure rising.

Supply side: Domestic steel mills reduced production in April less than expected, and are expected to resume production in May. According to Mysteel statistics, in April 2024, the crude steel production of 300 series from 43 stainless steel plants in China was 1.6832 million tons, an increase of 4500 tons month on month and 0.27% month on month, an increase of 18.35% year-on-year; In May, the 300 series produced 1.767 million tons, an increase of 4.98% month on month and 9.75% year-on-year. On the Indonesian side, Qingshan and Delong produced 425000 tons in March, 344700 tons in April, and an expected 390000 tons in May.

As of the end of the month, the total inventory of stainless steel was 106.86 tons, a decrease of 3.7% compared to last week, with both cold and hot rolling inventories falling.

On the demand side: In the off-season background, the downstream consumer demand side performs poorly and purchases on demand. The inventory in the market has increased again, the supply of goods is not tight, and steel mills continue to distribute goods within the week. The overall inventory digestion is slow, and merchants are more cautious in purchasing. The current spot circulation resources are relatively sufficient, with complete specifications and acceptable inventory. The downstream sales pressure still exists.

In summary, the disturbance at the mining end has played a certain supporting role in nickel prices, but lacks the driving force of new variables, and the degree of assistance in price increase is limited. The fluctuation of overseas macro expectations, coupled with the overall pressure on the non-ferrous sector, has put pressure on nickel prices in the short term. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate weakly in June.

For stainless steel, in May and beyond, as stainless steel production profits shrink again, there is a certain expectation of a reduction in market supply. However, with the increasing impact of the traditional off-season of consumption, the demand side also shows a reduction expectation. In June, considering that the impact of unexpected news gradually dissipates, the subsequent news of US tax hikes on electric vehicles, medical supplies, solar products and other products in China may create a bearish drag on the demand side, increasing the possibility of pressure on the stainless steel industry in June. It is expected that stainless steel prices will fluctuate weakly in June.

This week, the domestic glycerol market prices remained weak and stable. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 24th, the benchmark price of glycerol in Business Society was 4275.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.16% compared to the beginning of this month (4325.00 yuan/ton).

Influencing factors: In terms of palm oil, due to the fact that Malay palm oil is in the production cycle and the external market is not good, the overall palm oil market has slightly fluctuated and risen. According to data from Business Society, as of May 24th, the benchmark price of palm oil in Business Society was 7894.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.83% compared to the beginning of this month (7960.00 yuan/ton).

On the external side, the price of glycerol is stable, with a small quantity and not many offers. The domestic downstream market demand for epichlorohydrin is weak, and the purchasing atmosphere is not strong. At present, the market trading volume is insufficient and orders are limited, with a focus on wait-and-see.

Post forecast: According to the glycerol data analyst from Business Society, the market price of raw palm oil has risen, downstream demand is cold, and procurement is not active. In the near future, domestic glycerol has been operating weakly and steadily. For more information, please pay attention to the dynamics of external quotation and market guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market fluctuated and rose this week (May 20-25). As of May 25, the average market price in East China was 5946 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52% compared to the beginning of the week.

There have been many changes in domestic PTA equipment this week, with Dongying United’s 2.5 million ton PTA equipment undergoing maintenance for about 40 days on May 6th. The 3.3 million ton device of Yisheng New Materials will undergo maintenance for about 20 days on May 16th. The Ningbo Taihua 1.5 million ton plant was shut down for one month on May 23rd. The 1.25 million ton PTA plant of Ineos located in Zhuhai has been temporarily shut down for 4 days since May 20th and resumed operation over the weekend. At present, the PTA operating rate in the industry is around 75%, and there will be no equipment changes next week.

At the beginning of the week, due to the expected improvement in oil demand and the decrease in US crude oil inventories, the geopolitical situation was tense, and multiple factors drove up international oil prices, which boosted the PTA market. However, due to the possible postponement of interest rate cuts and unexpected increase in US oil inventories as shown in Federal Reserve minutes, oil prices have been adjusted downwards for multiple trading days. As of May 23, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.87 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $81.36 per barrel, with WTI crude oil falling to a nearly three-month low.

In the PX market, the 550000 ton PX plant in Malaysia restarted earlier this week and was shut down due to a malfunction on May 9th. At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s 1.34 million ton PX plant also experienced an unexpected shutdown due to unstable operation and low load operation. Since May, due to frequent unexpected shutdowns of the equipment, the supply pressure has been alleviated.

Downstream mainstream polyester factories are gradually reducing production, with a strong intention to support the market and appropriate replenishment of raw materials. Under the seasonal off-season at the terminal, downstream buying intentions remain limited. With the approaching summer weather turning hot, the decline in polyester production has become a major trend, weakening the demand for PTA, PTA has accumulated inventory expectations. The decrease in demand will strengthen the impact of PTA oversupply and create a negative impact on PTA prices.

Business Society analysts believe that with the decline in crude oil prices, support for PTA costs will weaken, and downstream polyester factories are more likely to reduce production, leading to a decrease in demand for PTA. At the same time, it is still necessary to pay attention to whether there is an increase in unplanned maintenance of PTA devices under low processing costs. Overall, there is currently no bullish news on the fundamentals, The possibility of PTA price decline is high.

With the downward adjustment of international crude oil prices and the lack of highlights in its own fundamentals, PTA prices have experienced a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 23, the average market price in East China was 5918 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous day.

In terms of supply, due to the decrease in PTA production in the early stage, some regions may experience supply tightening, with the industry operating rate around 74%. With the planned restart of the 1.25 million ton PTA plant in South China on May 24th, it is expected that the PTA production capacity operating rate will slightly increase, and overall, the supply of goods will still be abundant.

In the international crude oil market, due to the possible postponement of interest rate cuts and unexpected increase in US oil inventories as shown in Federal Reserve minutes, crude oil prices have been adjusted downwards for multiple trading days. As of May 22, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $77.57 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $81.90 per barrel, thus weakening support for PTA costs.

Downstream polyester production started at around 87%. The annual production of 125000 tons of polyester plant is planned to restart next Monday, with no major changes for the time being. Large polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have a strong intention to support the market. The domestic demand for terminal textiles is gradually weakening. In April, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, and needle textiles in domestic consumer goods retail reached 104.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. However, demand continued to weaken after entering May.

Business Society analysts believe that the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories and other negative news have led to a continued decline in crude oil prices and weakened cost support, PTA fundamentals are difficult to boost, coupled with the off-season cycle, it is still necessary to pay attention to whether polyester factories will expand their production reduction. Overall, there is a lack of upward driving force, PTA prices may experience weak fluctuations.

Zinc prices have risen three times this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22, the price of zinc was 24578 yuan/ton, a three consecutive increase of 3.99% compared to the zinc price of 23636 yuan/ton on May 19; The zinc price has increased by 5.13% compared to 23378 yuan/ton on May 1st; The zinc price has increased by 13.85% compared to 21588 yuan/ton on January 1st. The average zinc price in 2024 is 21207.20 yuan/ton, with a median of 21938 yuan/ton. This week, zinc prices have risen three times in a row. Currently, zinc prices have reached a new high in 2024 and are at the highest level within a year. The detection positions are at the highest level within a year, the medium high level within two years, and the medium high level within three years. Recently, they have been consistently on the alert for over price increases within a year. The warning of excessive increase in zinc prices continues, increasing the risk of a decline in zinc prices, and the risk of a sharp drop in zinc prices in the future continues to intensify.

Zinc prices continued to rise year-on-year in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since mid April 2024, zinc prices have risen year-on-year for the first time in a year. As of May 22, 2024, the zinc price was 24578 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.42% compared to May 22, 2023, when the zinc price was 20582 yuan/ton. Zinc prices have risen continuously this week, with a sustained year-on-year increase in May 2024. Zinc prices remain high, increasing the risk of decline.

Technical forecast for zinc market this week: It is highly likely to maintain a positive operation

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, since April 7, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend, but currently the two moving averages are moving in opposite directions. On April 21, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating conditions (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is only 7.79%. The probability of zinc prices maintaining a high level is relatively high, and the probability of a significant drop in zinc prices is less than 10%.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, zinc prices remained high in May and have continued to rise this week. International zinc market inventories are low, and domestic zinc markets are slowly destocking. Although the international macro environment is somewhat favorable, the supply and demand fundamentals of the zinc market have limited changes, and the support for the increase in zinc prices is insufficient. And zinc prices remain high and continue to rise, intensifying the risk of future decline. Expected zinc prices to fluctuate slightly in the future.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has remained stable and relatively strong, with spot prices fluctuating and rising. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 21st, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14825 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 1.37% compared to May 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, the market price of caprolactam has increased. The price of raw material pure benzene has risen at a high level, coupled with an increase in downstream operating rates, demand is improving. At the same time, some companies had planned maintenance for their caprolactam units, leading to a tightening of market supply. Caprolactam is highly beneficial and provides stronger support for the cost side of PA6.

In terms of supply: Recently, there has been an increase in the load of PA6 production enterprises, with an average operating rate of around 88% and a slight increase in output. The change in inventory position of enterprises is limited. Some manufacturers have low inventory levels. The overall pressure on the supplier is not significant, and the boost to PA6 spot prices is still acceptable.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the current main downstream industries are experiencing high levels of production. The operating rate of spinning remains at 85%, while the weaving load has risen narrowly to over 71%. In the early stage, downstream purchases were in strong demand, and recently some brands have started to be delivered, resulting in a decrease in on-site spot goods. The demand side of PA6 provides sufficient support for spot goods.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market has been experiencing strong fluctuations recently. The price of caprolactam continues to rise, providing stronger support for the cost side of PA6. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable with an increase, and the demand for stocking by terminal enterprises is relatively strong. Overall, the current market demand is strong, and raw materials are strengthening. It is expected that the PA6 market will be slightly stronger and consolidate in the short term.

In mid month, the plasticizer sector continued to consolidate strongly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the plasticizer sector was at 795 points on May 19th, unchanged from yesterday and up 12 points or 1.53% from the plasticizer sector index of 783 points on May 1st; The plasticizer sector index increased by 9 points, or 1.15%, compared to 786 points on May 10th. In mid May, the index of the plasticizer sector slightly increased, and the index of the plasticizer sector slightly rebounded compared to the previous ten days.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the plasticizer sector saw a full increase in products in mid May, but the main plasticizer products did not show a significant upward trend. The growth rate of products such as isooctanol, DBP, and DOTP narrowed slightly, while the plasticizer sector saw a strong consolidation in mid May.

Slight increase in plasticizer products in mid month

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, plasticizer products saw a slight increase in mid month. As of May 20th, the price of DOP was 10037.50 yuan/ton, an increase from the price of 9887.50 yuan/ton on May 11th. In the middle of the month, DOP increased by 1.52%; On May 20th, the price of DOTP was 10087.50 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.75% compared to the price of 10012.50 yuan/ton on May 11th; On May 20th, the DBP price was 9475 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.53% compared to May 11th when the DBP price was 9425 yuan/ton. The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is gradually recovering to around 65%, and the supply is gradually increasing. Cost support, rising prices of plasticizer products, increasing supply of plasticizers, macroeconomic policy stimulus, expected rebound in demand for plasticizers, overall support for the rise in plasticizer prices still exists.

The price of isooctanol slightly increased in mid month

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 20th, the price of isooctanol was 9810 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.62% compared to the price of isooctanol on May 11th, which was 9750 yuan/ton. The price of octanol products slightly increased in mid month. In early May, the operating rate of octanol enterprises was 98%. In mid to late May, some manufacturers plan to shut down their octanol units for maintenance. The supply of octanol is sufficient, and downstream production can be carried out as needed. In mid to late May, the domestic supply of octanol is expected to decrease, and the operation of plasticizer devices is basically stable and maintains a relatively high level. The octanol market lacks continuous upward momentum, and octanol prices are consolidating at a high level.

Mid month price increase of n-butanol

According to the analysis system of n-butanol commodity market by Business Society, as of May 20th, the quotation for n-butanol was 8133.33 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 2.95% compared to the price of 7900 yuan/ton on May 11th. The overall market for n-butanol in Shandong region has shown a slight increase. Some downstream small areas of n-butanol require replenishment, and the focus of the n-butanol market has slightly increased. In the future, it is expected that the n-butanol market will experience strong consolidation and operation as a whole.

Expected decrease in downstream demand

Due to the increase in planned maintenance enterprises, PVC production has decreased. The operating rate of downstream product enterprises is around 50%, unchanged on a month on month basis and decreasing year-on-year. In the short term, the supply of fundamentals has decreased due to maintenance, while domestic and international demand remains weak, especially in the export market, making it more difficult to accept orders, resulting in weak supply and demand in the PVC market; In the medium to long term, the policy stimulus of PVC market to reduce inventory and quantify inventory is difficult to bring benefits to new construction projects. Real estate transactions boost demand for the building materials market, and spot fundamentals are cautious and cautious. There is not much planned maintenance in June, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation, resulting in increased supply and poor demand performance, which has a certain drag on the market. The supply and demand in foreign markets are weak due to maintenance and off-season constraints. Overall, the supply and demand of PVC and downstream markets are weak, and the demand for plasticizers remains weak.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the plasticizer market saw a slight increase in mid month, mainly due to a decrease in production. Upstream isooctanol enterprises and PVC product enterprises downstream of plasticizers both experienced varying degrees of maintenance and production decline. The overall supply of plasticizers is tight, and downstream production has decreased, leading to an expected decrease in downstream demand for plasticizers. In the future, with the completion of enterprise maintenance, the support for the increase in raw material prices is limited, downstream demand is expected to decrease, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. The plasticizer sector is expected to consolidate at a high level in the future.