According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market for locally refined and hydrogenated naphtha continued to rise in March. As of March 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8401.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.31% from 8211.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month.

The market for locally refined straight run naphtha continued to rise in March. As of March 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8291.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.25% from 8109.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month.

Product: The price of ground refined naphtha continued to rise in March. Currently, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 8400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 8300 yuan/ton. The rise in international crude oil in March supported the naphtha market, with refineries actively pushing for an increase; The demand for downstream ethylene continues to be weak, and there is a lack of substantial positive news at the end. Market trading is mainly focused on the local refining and restructuring, and the market mentality is cautious.

Upstream: The crude oil market rose first and then fell in March, with a relatively stable performance in the first ten days. As of March 13th, international crude oil futures rose significantly, with a daily increase of nearly 3%. The main reason is that the US EIA inventory data is positive, coupled with Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries, geopolitical tensions have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil. In the latter half of the year, the crude oil market experienced a slight decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar combined with an increase in US crude oil inventories.

Downstream: The toluene market rose in March. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; The decrease in port inventory has supported the upward trend of toluene. The mixed xylene market continued to rise slightly in March. The downstream polyester industry has strong support for the high starting point, but the support for the phthalic anhydride and blending industries is relatively weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decrease. In February, the price trend of xylene increased, and the domestic xylene market had sufficient spot supply. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, and overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%.

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the high international crude oil market is supported by the cost of the naphtha market; However, currently there is a lack of significant positive news for the local refining naphtha terminal. Downstream demand is cautious in chasing higher prices, with a focus on on-demand procurement. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market may consolidate at a high level in the near future.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China remained stable this week, with a main price of around 13440 yuan/ton as of the 31st. The prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have risen, the fuel market has fallen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has fluctuated. Enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market supply is abundant. The mainstream market of polyacrylamide is mainly consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has risen this week. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9600 to 10000 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has stopped falling and rebounded, with costs supporting acrylonitrile; Downstream ABS production is at a low level, with industry equipment load around 56%, maintaining only essential support for acrylonitrile; Acrylonitrile production has steadily increased slightly, with a slight increase in the supply of acrylonitrile.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylic acid market has been on the rise this week. As of March 31st, the average quoted price for acrylic acid in the East China region is 6500.00 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has risen, cost pressure has increased, and some equipment on the supply side has been shut down for maintenance. The industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the quotes from major factories have increased, supporting the market’s price push mentality. Low priced goods on the market have decreased, and downstream inquiries are still promising. Buying continues with a strong demand for follow-up, and actual market transactions are average. As the end of the month approaches, some devices undergo maintenance and there is a shortage of spot supply, resulting in a favorable market trend on the supply side.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has fallen this week. The market is dominated by oversupply, coupled with the downward trend in raw gas prices, leading to a weakening of the liquefied natural gas market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have risen, the fuel market has fallen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has fluctuated. On the supply side, the production of enterprises in the main production area was normal this week; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. It is expected that domestic polyacrylamide sorting will be the main focus in the near future.