Price consolidation of plasticizer DOP in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the price of DOP was 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% compared to the DOP price of 9690 yuan/ton on April 7th; Compared to April 1st, the price of DOP fluctuated and decreased by 0.91% at 9890 yuan/ton. The price of raw material isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, while the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and risen. The cost of plasticizer DOP has slightly decreased; The expectation of plasticizer enterprises starting production in April has decreased, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is sufficient; Downstream PVC enterprises are slowly destocking, and downstream plasticizers are in urgent need of procurement. Plasticizer manufacturers have high inventory levels, increasing pressure on the decline of plasticizers. The supply and demand of plasticizer DOP are weak, and the price of plasticizer DOP is fluctuating and consolidating.

Isooctanol prices stop falling and consolidate

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the quotation for isooctanol was 9520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.37% compared to the quotation of 10060 yuan/ton on April 1st; Compared to April 7th, the price of isooctanol was 9480 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42%. In April, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and stabilized, with increased purchasing enthusiasm from downstream customers and active shipments from isooctanol manufacturers. The positive support for isooctanol increased.

Downstream prices of phthalic anhydride fluctuate and rise

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of April 15th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.48% compared to the price of 7612.50 yuan/ton on April 7th; Compared to April 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased by 1.81% to 7587.50 yuan/ton. The price of crude oil continues to rise, the cost of phthalic anhydride has risen, the price of nefa phthalic anhydride has risen, and the support for the rise of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The profit loss of phthalic anhydride is significant, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers have a greater willingness to increase. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate slightly.

Downstream PVC prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the PVC quotation was 5566 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.65% compared to the PVC price of 5530 yuan/ton on April 1st. The downstream operation of plasticizers is normal, and spring maintenance is not active. The demand for plasticizers is still supported, and the downward pressure on the demand side of plasticizers in the future is limited.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and stabilized, while the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and risen. The cost support for plasticizer DOP still exists; In terms of supply, the high starting point of plasticizer DOP is stable, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is sufficient; In terms of demand, PVC manufacturers are going out of stock, and there is still support for the demand for plasticizer DOP. In the future, the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased, and demand support still exists. It is expected that DOP prices will consolidate strongly in the future.

This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 remained weak and stable. As of April 14th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 13680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% compared to the previous week. This week, the industrial silicon market has slightly declined, continuing the recent weak trend. The operating situation of silicon plants has decreased this week, and the release of downstream demand has also decreased due to the impact of profits, resulting in a slight increase in inventory. In the context of a dual decline in supply and demand, some silicon companies intend to lower prices to promote transactions, while downstream buyers have a willingness to purchase, but the pressure on prices is even greater, intensifying the game between the two sides. Therefore, although there were transactions in the market, the degree was not as expected, and coupled with accumulated inventory, downstream buyers were mostly bearish and focused on on-demand procurement, so industrial silicon saw a slight decline this week

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 12th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 13500~13600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 13500~13600 yuan/ton, with an average of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 13700-13800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13750 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 13400~13500 yuan/ton, with an average of 13450 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 14000-14200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14100 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of April 11th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has increased by 289, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous month. Shaanxi will reduce one unit, Xinjiang will decrease six units, and Sichuan will increase one unit. At present, the situation of inverted production costs in silicon factories is severe, with few enterprises in Southwest China starting production. Xinjiang silicon enterprises are under cost pressure to reduce production, and silicon enterprises are offering high prices without offering prices, resulting in an overall reduction in supply.

In terms of inventory:

As of April 12th, the inventory of industrial silicon remained unchanged compared to the previous week, with a social inventory of 370000 tons. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse had 114000 tons, which was the same as the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse had 256000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), which was the same as the previous week; This week, industrial silicon factory inventory was 81000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand:

Polycrystalline silicon prices have weakened this week. Recently, the game situation between upstream and downstream has intensified, and downstream silicon wafers have been reduced in production, which often puts pressure on upstream quotations. However, due to the pressure of rising costs, upstream suppliers have a clear willingness to raise prices, and the supply pressure in the photovoltaic industry chain is gradually increasing. The contradiction of oversupply is prominent, but the performance of installed capacity demand is moderate. It is expected that the upstream and downstream of photovoltaics will continue to remain sluggish, and the price of silicon materials will still be weak.

This week, the price of organic silicon has slightly fallen, while the price of aluminum alloy has remained stable. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 14500 yuan/ton. At present, the demand for organic silicon DMC on the market remains cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and some concerns about future inventory. However, the current market price has continued to decline and has also dropped to a lower level. For downstream users who have already digested some inventory, appropriate bargain hunting and stocking orders may increase. In the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust its operation in a narrow range; The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is around 20000 yuan/ton. After the resumption of production, aluminum alloy enterprises gradually stabilized, releasing some rigid procurement demand. However, the overall change is limited, and the demand for aluminum alloy remains stable.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, the production cost inversion of silicon plants is severe, the overall operating rate has fallen, and some areas have shut down for maintenance operations, resulting in a reduction in the overall supply situation; On the demand side, the demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon has remained stable, and the release of replenishment demand in the short term has weakened, highlighting the dual decline in supply and demand. Social inventory is stabilizing, and there is not much pressure on total inventory. At present, the supply and demand side has turned into a situation of dual decline in supply and demand, with fundamental bearish prices, especially the recent weakening of futures prices. However, cost support is temporarily stored, and it is expected that industrial silicon will experience narrow fluctuations and operate weakly and steadily next week.

The melamine market was weak in early April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 10th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7025.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.44% compared to April 1st (the reference price of melamine was 7275.00 yuan).

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of Shengyishe, after entering April, the price of raw material urea has rebounded slightly, but there is still insufficient support for the melamine market. On April 10th, the reference price of urea was 2394.17, a decrease of 0.86% compared to April 1st (2415.00).

Supply and demand side: Since April, the operating rate of the melamine industry has slightly decreased, but the market supply of goods is abundant, and some enterprises have accumulated inventory. The downstream board industry is operating at a low level, and manufacturers have a cautious purchasing attitude, with a focus on using and purchasing as needed mode. The overall downstream demand follow-up is slow, and transactions continue to be in high demand, resulting in a weak market atmosphere.

Future Market Forecast:

Under the influence of the recent pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the melamine market, the market is operating weakly. It is expected that the supply side will remain at a high level in the later stage, and the support from the demand side may still be insufficient, putting pressure on fundamental supply and demand. At present, the raw material urea has slightly increased, but the short-term support for the melamine market is relatively limited. In summary, it is expected that the melamine market will continue to operate weakly in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in the price of raw material urea.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the PP market saw an increase in early April, with prices of various wire drawing brands gradually increasing. As of April 10th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7828.57 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.83% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the international crude oil market is still fluctuating and rising due to the previous geopolitical tension, which has a strong support effect on the cost side of oil to PP production. However, in the medium term, demand is relatively weak and there is a risk of price retracement. Due to the rapid decline in propylene prices in the early stages, the market in early April continued its consolidation after the previous rebound, providing relatively stable support for propylene to PP production. The price fluctuations of methanol and propane are equally narrow, which generally supports PP horizontally. The cost support for PP is concentrated in crude oil.

Overall, the raw material supply is still acceptable, and there is still support for the PP cost side. In terms of industry load, there has been a narrow decline, with an average load of around 72% in recent days. At the same time, production line maintenance has been relatively concentrated recently, and companies such as Shenhua Baotou and Donghua Ningbo have maintenance plans, but the market supply has not reached the expected level. The inventory position of production enterprises has decreased, and the market supply pressure has been alleviated. In terms of demand, the load of terminal enterprises is generally stable and small, with downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding having comprehensive operating rates of about 43%, 65%, and 57%, respectively. The replenishment operation of enterprises is mainly based on demand, and the trading atmosphere on the market is maintained. The market for wire drawing materials is mostly focused on the cost side, with prices fluctuating and rising.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of April 10th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7687.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.82% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 1.13% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen a low increase in load, with an average operating rate of over 29%. The non-woven fabric market has seen a narrow recovery in trading, but the circulation of goods is still mainly based on contract delivery. The pattern of high overall inventory of fiber materials in the early stage continues, while the digestion speed of end products is average. It is expected that the fiber material market may continue the current consolidation trend.

In terms of melt blown materials, the market for melt blown PP has been stable and rising recently. As of April 10th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8025 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.16%, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.59%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. In addition, the downstream factories have low load, and most of the new orders are scattered. Melt blown materials are more inclined to link with the cost side market, and it is expected that the melt blown material market will continue to maintain stability and consolidate the market.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market fluctuated and rose in early April. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is stable, moderate to strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. The supply of goods has been tightened, and the supply pressure has been partially alleviated. The production of terminal enterprises is stable, and stocking is necessary to maintain production. The on-site momentum is average. It is expected that the PP market will tend to strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

This week, domestic cobalt prices stopped falling and stabilized

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on April 9th was 223500 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.22% compared to the cobalt price of 224000 yuan/ton on April 1st. The new energy vehicle market is favorable, and the demand for cobalt is improving. This week, cobalt prices have stopped falling and stabilized.

Domestic wholesale production of new energy vehicles is increasing

The Automotive Market Research Branch of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimated that in March 2024, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers in China reached 820000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33% and a month on month increase of 84%. SAIC Group announced that the sales of new energy vehicles in March were 84800 units, a year-on-year increase of 30%. Under the stimulation of the trade in policy and the wave of price cuts by car companies, the production and sales data of terminal new energy vehicles have significantly improved, supporting the demand in the cobalt market.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, on the demand side, the recovery of the new energy vehicle market is accelerating, the consumption of the mobile phone market is maintaining, and there is some positive support for the demand in the cobalt market. Supply side: The expected arrival of cobalt raw materials at the port in March has increased significantly, indicating sufficient supply in the cobalt market. Overall, oversupply in the cobalt market still exists, and there is still pressure for the decline in cobalt prices. However, with the recovery of demand in the cobalt market, the downward pressure on cobalt prices has weakened, and it is expected that cobalt prices will stop falling and stabilize in the future.

Recently, there has been a slight increase in the cost of ethyl acrylate; Demand, rigid demand is stable, while spot demand is poor, with small growth in downstream demand of the main body; The ethyl acrylate market is showing a slight upward trend. As of April 8th, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9363.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13% compared to last week’s (9350.00 yuan/ton).

Supply side:

This week, the acrylic acid market has been relatively warm. Recently, there has been a positive impact on device maintenance. As of April 8th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyishe was 6675.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69% compared to the beginning of this month (6500.00 yuan/ton). In addition, the downstream stocking mentality of the terminal has increased, but the main focus is still on on-demand procurement, and the atmosphere on the market is becoming stronger, with limited actual transactions. However, at present, some orders in Shandong region have been discontinued without quotations, with low-priced orders being the main focus. Some manufacturers have raised their prices, supporting the continuous upward shift of the price center in the acrylic acid market. Meanwhile, acrylic acid also showed a slight strengthening during the week.

On the demand side:

This week, downstream profitability remains poor, with recent demand showing decent demand, while spot demand is weak. The current news shows that although there is a slight increase in demand for ethyl acrylate in the downstream market, the expected growth rate is relatively small. The downstream acrylic resin, coatings and other industries of ethyl acrylate mainly maintain rigid demand consumption, and the enthusiasm for downstream inquiries is increasing with the quotation of ethyl acetate; The main focus is on maintaining fixed consumption of adhesive tape master rolls, and the procurement volume is mainly focused on small orders with a high demand; Acrylic acid lotion industry maintains rigid demand procurement.

Overall

Ethyl acrylate is at a low level, with limited short-term gains. Although the price has slightly increased, the bearish atmosphere in the market still exists, resulting in insufficient spot trading atmosphere on the exchange. From the perspective of supply and demand of ethyl acrylate itself, there is room for recovery in supply, but the downstream demand increment is limited, and the tight balance between supply and demand has been eased. However, the impact on prices is limited. Therefore, it is expected that the price of ethyl acrylate will show a strong and then weak performance next week, with prices expected to be between 9200-9400 yuan/ton.

The prices of plasticizers in the sector have dropped significantly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 7th, the plasticizer sector has experienced a significant decline, with the main plasticizer sector products experiencing varying degrees of decline. The prices of isooctanol, DOP, and DOTP have fallen by nearly 20%, while the prices of n-butanol have fallen by 9.58%. DOP prices fell by 19.86%; DOTP prices fell by 19.21%; The price of isooctanol decreased by 26.80%; DBP prices fell by 5.13%. The plasticizer sector experienced a slight decline from January to February, while the plasticizer sector experienced a significant decline in March.

During the Spring Festival, the production of plasticizer manufacturers decreased significantly, dropping to around 50%. However, with the end of the holiday, the production of plasticizer manufacturers quickly recovered to around 70%. In March, the production of plasticizer enterprises reached a high level, and the supply of plasticizers was sufficient; Domestic PVC manufacturers are operating at a high level, PVC market inventory is high, and PVC is expected to continue to enter the market. The demand for plasticizers in the PVC market is not well supported, but with the arrival of the PVC Spring Festival maintenance season, the demand for plasticizers is expected to decrease. Adequate supply and poor demand have led to a significant decrease in plasticizer profits.

The price of isooctanol dropped significantly in the first quarter

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 7th, the price of isooctanol was 9480 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to March 31st, when the price of isooctanol was 9825 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 3.51%; Compared to January 1st, the price of isooctanol at 12950 yuan/ton has dropped significantly, with a decrease of 26.80%. 1. In February, there was a slight fluctuation and decline, while in March, the price of isooctanol dropped significantly. In March, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises resumed operation, and the supply of isooctanol increased. Imported isooctanol gradually arrived at ports from February to March, increasing the inventory of octanol at ports and increasing the pressure on isooctanol supply; In terms of demand, downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at high loads, and there is an upward trend in demand for isooctanol. In addition, the export of isooctanol has rebounded, but overall it is still at a low level, with limited positive support for isooctanol. The supply and demand of isooctanol have increased, and the isooctanol market may remain weak. With the slow decline of inventory in the isooctanol market, the isooctanol market will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated significantly and fell in the first quarter

According to the analysis system of n-butanol commodity market by Business Society, as of April 7th, the quoted price of n-butanol was 7766.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.89% from the price of n-butanol on March 31st, which was 7916.67 yuan/ton; Compared to January 1st, the price of n-butanol decreased significantly by 10.73% at 8700 yuan/ton. In the first quarter, domestic n-butanol opened high and closed low, with weak and volatile prices from January to February, and a significant drop in n-butanol prices in March. During the Spring Festival, the overall downstream production of n-butanol has significantly declined, while n-butanol enterprises have maintained a relatively high level of production. The inventory of n-butanol has accumulated, and the import volume of n-butanol has increased. As downstream production of n-butanol gradually returns, downstream stocking is more advanced, and demand for n-butanol has rebounded. At the same time, the high level of n-butanol production has remained stable after the holiday, and n-butanol inventory has remained high. In addition, the problem of n-butanol inventory accumulation in February has exacerbated the oversupply of the n-butanol market. The manufacturers of n-butanol have a strong willingness to sell at a profit margin, and the price of n-butanol has been falling all the way. It is expected that the price of n-butanol will be weak in the future.

Polyethylene plant enters maintenance season

In 2024, the maintenance of polyethylene plants increased, with a total loss of 970000 tons in the first quarter, an increase of nearly 40% year-on-year. Entering the second quarter, the annual spring inspection has kicked off, and the polyethylene plant has entered a period of concentrated maintenance. In addition to the continued shutdown of enterprises undergoing maintenance in the first quarter, there has been an increase in new maintenance in April, and the loss of maintenance in April has significantly increased. It is expected to be around 420000 tons, an increase of 33% compared to March.

Downstream demand falls short of expectations

On March 26, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of India (MOC) notified the initiation of anti-dumping investigations against PVC imports originating in China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Thailand and the United States. The investigation period is from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023. India is the world’s largest importer of PVC, and the impact of this anti-dumping incident on imports in the Indian market is relatively limited, with the main impact expected to be concentrated in the second half of the year. In terms of inventory, domestic PVC social inventory is high, PVC downstream production is low, order continuity is not strong, PVC manufacturers have a lot of inventory waiting to be stored, and PVC inventory continues to maintain high levels. In terms of operating rate, PVC manufacturers had a high operating rate in the first quarter, and spring maintenance was gradually launched in April, leading to an increase in enterprise maintenance. In terms of demand, many market participants have optimistic expectations for the post holiday “Golden Three” market. However, the current “Golden Three” has passed. According to feedback from downstream enterprises, the demand for plastic products in the market has been sluggish this year, with less than expected orders and limited support from the raw material end. The supply-demand contradiction continues to play a game, and the quality of the “Golden Three” peak season is slightly insufficient. In the future, with the arrival of the PVC Spring Festival inspection and repair season, PVC manufacturers have started to decline, while infrastructure resumption has increased. The plastic industry market has rebounded in April, but the overall growth in demand for plasticizers is limited. There is still downward pressure on the demand side of plasticizers in the future.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in the first quarter, raw material prices plummeted, demand fell below expectations, plasticizer prices plummeted, and the plasticizer sector experienced a sharp decline. In the future, in terms of raw materials, the prices of isooctanol are weak and volatile, while the prices of phthalic anhydride are stabilizing. The prices of n-butanol are fluctuating and falling, and the cost of plasticizers is slowing down; On the supply side, the expected operating load of plasticizer manufacturers has decreased, the supply of plasticizers has decreased, and the support for the rise of plasticizers has increased; In terms of demand, plastic industry manufacturers have entered the traditional Spring Festival maintenance season, and downstream manufacturers have increased their expectations for maintenance, exacerbating the weak demand for plasticizers. Overall, the decline in plasticizer costs has slowed down, and both supply and demand expectations have decreased. However, plasticizer manufacturers have been slow to destock, and the situation of plasticizer oversupply is difficult to improve. Downstream customers have a strong resistance to high priced plasticizers, and it is expected that high priced plasticizer prices will fluctuate slightly in the future, while low-priced plasticizer prices will remain weak and stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 2nd, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7025.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.42% compared to March 21st (the reference price of melamine was 7350.00 yuan).

The recent decline in the melamine market is mainly due to poor demand and insufficient cost support. Some companies are offering discounts and accepting orders, leading to a decline in the focus of negotiations in the melamine market. On April 2nd, the mainstream ex factory price reference for melamine in the East China market was around 6500-6650 yuan/ton, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

Cost side: Supply exceeds demand, and the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong slightly decreased in March. Entering April, the market continued its downward trend. According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the reference price of urea on April 2nd was 2393.33, a decrease of 0.9% compared to April 1st (2415.00), which provides weak support for the melamine market.

Supply and demand side: Recently, some devices have been shut down, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased. However, the supply side is still sufficient, and domestic downstream demand is flat. The main focus is on following up on rigid demand, with a cautious purchasing attitude. The market transaction atmosphere is light, and enterprise shipments are under pressure. The support for supply and demand side is weak.

The current melamine market is operating weakly, and the short-term supply-demand contradiction in the market may continue. Holders are actively shipping, and it is expected that the melamine market will continue to operate weakly in the short term. The specific trend still needs to pay attention to market news guidance.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 31, 2024, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 3966 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate was 4066 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.46%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that from January to March 2024, the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate in China showed a V-shaped trend of first falling and then rebounding. The market price began to decline from early January until the end of February. Starting from March, the dimethyl carbonate market welcomed some positive news, and the market began to rebound. With the gradual release of demand, the overall market finally continued to recover.

Market analysis of dimethyl carbonate

Negative pressure on January’s weak decline in dimethyl carbonate

In January, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a weak and declining trend. The trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on site is light. After the increase in operating load of dimethyl carbonate in Zhejiang region, the overall supply on site has increased. However, the downstream demand has generally boosted, and the downstream market mainly maintains rigid demand orders. Spot purchases are cautious, and the market is mostly empty. Under the pressure of bearish sentiment, the focus of the dimethyl carbonate market continues to decline, with a 4.10% decline in January.

The supply-demand game does not decrease. In February, dimethyl carbonate continued to decline deeply

In February, the overall supply of dimethyl carbonate in the domestic market was sufficient. During the Spring Festival holiday, many factories of dimethyl carbonate maintained normal or slightly reduced operations, while the overall operation of dimethyl carbonate remained unchanged, with an operating rate of around 4 floors. After the end of the holiday, there is a certain accumulation of inventory in the dimethyl carbonate market, and the overall inventory level of factories has increased. After the holiday, the dimethyl carbonate factories mainly discharge inventory, but the recovery of the demand side needs to be gradually released. Therefore, the game between supply and demand in the dimethyl carbonate market did not decrease in February, and the market situation continued to decline deeply. In February, dimethyl carbonate decreased by 1.71%.

The demand side supports the recovery of the dimethyl carbonate market in March

With the arrival of “Golden Three Silver Four”, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market finally saw a recovery in March. The overall demand for downstream demand of dimethyl carbonate, including electrolyte and solvent directions, has improved to some extent. The scheduling and shipment rhythm of the dimethyl carbonate factory is still good, and the overall supply pressure of the factory has been relieved. The overall supply and demand transmission of dimethyl carbonate has been improved, coupled with some factories undergoing shutdown and maintenance. The buying sentiment in the dimethyl carbonate market is still positive, and the overall focus of market negotiations is gradually moving upwards. In March, dimethyl carbonate increased by 3.48%.

In terms of demand: Currently, there are many downstream industries of dimethyl carbonate in China. From the perspective of the downstream consumption structure of the industry, products with a large consumption of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate include electrolyte solvents, polycarbonate, coatings, adhesives, developer, etc. Currently, electrolyte solvents are the main downstream of dimethyl carbonate, accounting for 40%. Next is polycarbonate, accounting for 27%, while coatings, adhesives, and developers account for 8% and 4%, respectively. Other industries account for 5.9%.

1、 In February, downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate was mainly reflected in the electrolyte and traditional industries such as coatings and adhesives. The overall demand for the electrolyte industry recovered less than expected, and the demand for coatings was also in the off-season of the industry.

In March, the demand for electrolytes and traditional solvent coatings has improved, and polycarbonate factories are also operating normally at basic load. The capacity utilization rate is still acceptable, and the demand for industrial grade DMC in traditional industries is expected to increase slightly. Overall, the demand is expected to improve.

In terms of supply, there was not much adjustment in the domestic production capacity of dimethyl carbonate in January. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday in February, there was no significant shutdown plan for the dimethyl carbonate market as a whole, and the market maintained a stable operating rate in the early stage. 1、 In February, the dimethyl carbonate factory mainly focused on shipping, and there was some supply pressure in the market.

In March, with the continuous release of demand, the pressure on the supply side of dimethyl carbonate was reduced, and the market supply and demand pattern gradually changed.

In terms of production capacity: In 2023, the overall production capacity of the dimethyl carbonate market has significantly increased. In 2023, the production capacity of dimethyl carbonate was about 2.5 million tons, but the production accounted for only half of the production capacity, about 1.23 million tons. The imbalance in the supply and demand pattern of dimethyl carbonate has begun to emerge. In 2024, there is still a significant demand gap in the overall dimethyl carbonate market, and overcapacity still exists. Therefore, the transmission and coordination of supply and demand still dominate.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on site is mild. With the arrival of spring, the downstream traditional coating industry of dimethyl carbonate will also usher in a peak season.

From the perspective of downstream electrolyte and solvent industries, with the support of policies in the new energy industry, there is still a trend of increasing production capacity in the future. In the long run, the increase in demand for electrolyte is also transmitted to diethyl carbonate, and there is a certain increase. Although the overall market is currently showing an overcapacity pattern, in terms of future demand for dimethyl carbonate, the direction of electrolyte development is still the main direction.

The data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic market for dimethyl carbonate will mainly operate steadily and positively. In the long run, the gap on the demand side cannot be ignored, and there are still huge challenges in the future market.

Recently, the market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has remained stable. At present, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is around 72000 to 73000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, the price of lithium carbonate in the market has fallen and the market is relatively stable. As of April 2nd, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate for Shengyishe is 107000.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.

Downstream aspect:

The purchasing demand atmosphere for downstream electrolyte enterprises is lukewarm, only maintaining the purchase of essential goods. Due to some enterprises having a certain amount of reserves, their demand for raw materials is not active, market transmission is not smooth, and there is no good news.

Post forecast:

Business Society’s lithium hexafluorophosphate data analyst predicts that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate will remain stable in the near future.